Madagascar: OVERLAND DEPRESSION ex. IVAN (TC 18S)

[parvez_savage]

OMG...

[parvez_savage]

Hurricane IVAN making landfall on 09/16/2004 just west of Gulf Shores , Alabama



Intense Tropical Cyclone about to make landfall on 02/17/2008 east coast of Madagascar

[parvez_savage]

Looking at the Synoptic chart, we can see EX-Hondo is about 860Km to the East North East of Rodrigues Island.. I Just wanted to know,is there any chance that EX-Hondo can intensify to become cyclone in the coming days????

[Pedro Fernández]

Impact !!



Latest data from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center gave 930 hPa and 100 KT, at 00 UTC.

[Chacor]

WTIO30 FMEE 170620

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 41/11/20072008
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IVAN)

2.A POSITION 2008/02/17 AT 0600 UTC :
17.2S / 49.5E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.5 /W 1.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 935 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 95 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 400 SE: 450 SO: 150 NO: 150
50 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 060 NO: 060

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/02/17 18 UTC: 17.7S/48.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, OVERLAND.
24H: 2008/02/18 06 UTC: 18.4S/46.6E, MAX WIND=020KT, OVERLAND.
36H: 2008/02/18 18 UTC: 19.2S/45.1E, MAX WIND=020KT, OVERLAND.
48H: 2008/02/19 06 UTC: 20.1S/44.2E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
60H: 2008/02/19 18 UTC: 20.4S/43.8E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
72H: 2008/02/20 06 UTC: 20.6S/43.4E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=5.0 AND CI=5.5+
IVAN HAS REACHED SAINTE-MARIE ISLAND AROUND 0200Z AND KEEPS ON TRACKING
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS. THE EYEWALL HAS REACHED THE MALAGASY EASTERN COAST
AROUND 0400Z AND THE CENTRE SHOULD LANDFALL NORTH OF FANOARIVO -NORTH OF
TAMATAVE - WITHIN AN HOUR.
THE EYE IS RATHER LARGE (ABOUT 35 NM DIAMETER).
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS (MORE THAN 65KT WITH GUSTS MORE THAN 90KT) SHOULD
CONCERN THE COASTLINE FROM ANTANAMBE IN THE NORTH TO TOAMASINA IN THE
SOUTH EXTENDING LOCALLY UP TO 30 NM OVERLAND.
AFTER THE LANFALL, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY WEAKEN BUT NEAR GALE
FORCE WINDS SHOULD OCCUR OVER WATER BETWEEN 16S AND 20S UP TO 100 NM
FROM THE COASTLINE DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

Per this, landfall would've been slightly after 0600 (10 am local time).
Expected to make it out into the Mozambique Channel.

[Coredesat]

[Squarethecircle]

That was pretty cool. I'd put it higher than the JTWC at landfall though; it looked a little better than 100 knots.

[Chacor]

WTIO30 FMEE 171220

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 42/11/20072008
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 11 (EX-IVAN)

2.A POSITION 2008/02/17 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.2S / 48.8E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT
DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : /
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE :
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 200 SE: 300 SO: 150 NO: 150

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 1700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/02/18 00 UTC: 17.8S/47.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, OVERLAND.
24H: 2008/02/18 12 UTC: 18.5S/45.7E, MAX WIND=020KT, OVERLAND.
36H: 2008/02/19 00 UTC: 19.5S/44.5E, MAX WIND=015KT, OVERLAND.
48H: 2008/02/19 12 UTC: 19.8S/44.2E, MAX WIND=015KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
60H: 2008/02/20 00 UTC: 20.2S/43.8E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
72H: 2008/02/20 12 UTC: 20.7S/43.5E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
IVAN HAS MADE A LANDFALL ABOUT 100 KN NORTH OF TOAMASINA, IN THE NORTHERN
VICINITY OF FENOARIVAO CITY, AT 0615Z.
IT SHOULD THEN CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE UP TO TAU 36/48H. BEYOND, THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AND SLOW DOWN AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEAKENS AND THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES RATHER "WEAK".
AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE AIDS AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO, BUT THE TIMING IS
DIFFERENT ABOUT THE SYSTEM BEING BACK OVER WATER.

[HURAKAN]

Landfall Photo Slide:

[alhddar]

[HURAKAN]

[Squarethecircle]

Obliterated-

[HurricaneRobert]

That is not obliterated. The eye is completely gone, though.

[Chacor]

Indeed, that's VERY deep convection in the western half of the system.

[Squarethecircle]

That's been there a while. The NRL's history of invests suggests that another system may have been absorbed by Ivan (though that's probably not behind the large burst of convection). And just because it's obliterated doesn't mean it's not dangerous. I would not want to be anywhere near that heavy convection.

[HURAKAN]

Convection increasing.

[Squarethecircle]

Not around the center, fortunately, but any more convection is definitely a bad sign for Madagascar.

[HURAKAN]

:uarrow: Not around the center, fortunately, but any more convection is definitely a bad sign for Madagascar.

The LLC is probably already gone after a long time overland.





Lets see if it makes it to the coast.

[Squarethecircle]

Ivan's gone from a couple thunderstorms to a category four before. I wouldn't count him out quite yet.

[Cryomaniac]

:uarrow: Ivan's gone from a couple thunderstorms to a category four before. I wouldn't count him out quite yet.

Now that would be insane...