Madagascar: OVERLAND DEPRESSION ex. IVAN (TC 18S)

[Squarethecircle]

Is that referencing the thunderstorms thing or the count him out thing? Because if it's the former, there are graphics a few pages back.

[Cryomaniac]

:uarrow: Is that referencing the thunderstorms thing or the count him out thing? Because if it's the former, there are graphics a few pages back.

The counting out thing.

[Squarethecircle]

Yes, that would be fairly insane.

[HURAKAN]

Still here!!!!

[Chacor]

WTIO30 FMEE 180011

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 44/11/20072008
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 11 (EX-IVAN)

2.A POSITION 2008/02/18 AT 0000 UTC :
17.7S / 47.0E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY SEVEN DECIMAL ZERO
DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : /W
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE :
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) :

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 200 SE: 300 SO: 150 NO: 150

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1000 HPA
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/02/18 12 UTC: 18.8S/45.3E OVERLAND.
24H: 2008/02/19 00 UTC: 19.8S/44.3E, MAX WIND=015KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
36H: 2008/02/19 12 UTC: 20.5S/43.7E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
48H: 2008/02/20 00 UTC: 21.1S/43.1E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
60H: 2008/02/20 12 UTC: 21.6S/42.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
72H: 2008/02/21 00 UTC: 21.9S/42.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
IVAN SHOULD THEN CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE UP TO TAU 12/24H. BEYOND, THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AND SLOW DOWN AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEAKENS AND THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES RATHER "WEAK".
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDIT
IONS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE TO PROGRESSIVE REINTENSIFICTION OVER THE WARM
SST OF THE CHANEL.
AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE AIDS AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO, BUT THE TIMING IS
DIFFERENT ABOUT THE SYSTEM BEING BACK OVER WATER.

Well, would you look at that.

[Crostorm]

Here are news from Madagascar
9 people lose life in St Marie
http://www.midi-madagasikara.mg/midi/

[Sanibel]

Looks like an intense cyclone on satellite but the pictures in that article show standing trees with leaves on them. Low category 3 at the most at landfall from damage pictures. Hope the endangered species in Madagascar weren't badly affected.

[Chacor]

WTIO30 FMEE 180626

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 45/11/20072008
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 11 (EX-IVAN)

2.A POSITION 2008/02/18 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.4S / 46.0E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY SIX DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : /W
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE :
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) :

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/02/18 18 UTC: 19.4S/44.8E OVERLAND.
24H: 2008/02/19 06 UTC: 20.0S/44.0E, MAX WIND=015KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
36H: 2008/02/19 18 UTC: 20.6S/43.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
48H: 2008/02/20 06 UTC: 21.0S/43.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
60H: 2008/02/20 18 UTC: 21.2S/42.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
72H: 2008/02/21 06 UTC: 21.4S/41.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
IVAN HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARDS AT 10 KT DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS ALONG
THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
WEAKENED NEAR THE CENTER BUT REMAINS WELL MARQUED NORTH OF THE SYSTEM IN
THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH THE MONSOON FLOW (144 MM OVER THE LAST 6
HOURS AT MAJUNGA - 0300 UTC SYNOP)

SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE BACK OVER WATER DURING THE NEXT NIGHT. AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEAKENS, SYSTEM SHOULD BE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN A
RATHER "WEAK" ENVIRONMENT. IN FACT, MOST OF THE MODELS LEAVE THE SYSTEM
CLOSE TO THE SOUTHWEST COSAST OF MADAGASCAR DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS ..
.
IF ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE TO PROGRESSIVE
REINTENSIFICTION OVER THE WARM SST OF THE CHANEL, FORECAST INTENSITY
BRING THE SYSTEM ONLY TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS AS IT IS EXPECTED TO
STAY QUITE CLOSE TO THE COAST. THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD LATER.

[Coredesat]

LLC is broadening. If Ivan regenerates, it likely won't strengthen much.

[Chacor]

This is apparently a 60-kt tropical storm, if the JTWC is to be believed.

MF have issued a correction to their advisory, 144 mm in 12 hours not 6 hours.

[HurricaneBill]

Looks like an intense cyclone on satellite but the pictures in that article show standing trees with leaves on them. Low category 3 at the most at landfall from damage pictures. Hope the endangered species in Madagascar weren't badly affected.

Keep in mind that the most intense winds tend to occur in narrow swaths.

[HURAKAN]

WOW!!!!

[Chacor]

WTIO30 FMEE 181229

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 46/11/20072008
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 11 (EX-IVAN)

2.A POSITION 2008/02/18 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.9S / 45.3E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FIVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : /W
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE :
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) :

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/02/19 00 UTC: 21.0S/44.2E OVERLAND.
24H: 2008/02/19 12 UTC: 22.5S/43.2E, MAX WIND=015KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
36H: 2008/02/20 00 UTC: 22.3S/42.4E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
48H: 2008/02/20 12 UTC: 21.6S/42.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
60H: 2008/02/21 00 UTC: 21.1S/41.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
72H: 2008/02/21 12 UTC: 20.7S/41.9E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
LATEST VISIBLE ANIMATIONS AND SURFACE DATA SUGGESTED THAT THE LLCC IS
LOCATED EAST OF MORONDAVA (998.6 HPA 09 UTC SYNOP). IVAN HAS TRACKED
SOUTHSOUTHWESTWARDS AT 12 KT DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
WEAKENED NEAR THE CENTER BUT
REMAINS WELL MARQUED NORTH OF THE SYSTEM IN THE LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE
AREA WITH THE MONSOON FLOW.

ON ITS MORE POLEWARDS MOVEMENT, THERE IS NOW SOME INCERTITUDE IN THE FACT
THAT THE SYSTEM COULD MOVE BACK OVER WATER DURING THE NEXT NIGHT.
PRESENT GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED ON THE LEFT (TO THE EAST) ACCORDING TO THE
LAST NWP 00Z RUN.

AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEAKENS, SYSTEM SHOULD BE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IN A RATHER "WEAK" ENVIRONMENT (A MID-LAT TROUGH WILL PASS
SOUTHWARD) AND SHOULD MOVE WITH A SLOWER MOTION. BEYOND TAU 48 HOURS, A
BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS TAKING PLACE OVER THE SOUTH OF THE CHANNEL
AND SHOULD ALLOW A M
ORE NORTHWARD COMPONENT BUT STILL AT LOW SPPED. IN FACT, MOST OF THE
MODELS LEAVE THE SYSTEM CLOSE TO THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MADAGASCAR DURING
THE NEXT THREE DAYS ...

LAST REGULAR ADVISORY. IT WILL BE REISSUED WHEN REINTENSIFICATION WILL
OCCUR.

We won't get the next adv for another day and a half or so at least.

[Squarethecircle]

Ivan might do it again?

Well, this is certainly a very plucky storm (if plucky can even be applied to a storm).

[HURAKAN]

Convection redeveloping near or around the old center.

[Squarethecircle]

[Crostorm]

another beautyfull image of landfall

[Crostorm]

Here is a press release from the Office of National Risk Management of Disasters and Madagascar established at 18h this Monday, February 18, 2008
Http://mr.li/cyclone/11_20072008/BNGRC_ ... ev_18h.pdf

MADAGASCAR: Cyclone Ivan sweeps across Madagascar, heads for Mozambique

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdes ... a6ec0f.htm

[HURAKAN]

Pretty good circulation:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... r2_floater

[HURAKAN]