SWIO: Tropical Depression HONDO (TC 16S)

[HURAKAN]

[Squarethecircle]

Wow! That's some good convection!


I am not entirely sure Hondo is done surprising us yet.

[HURAKAN]

The fun continues!!!

[Squarethecircle]

Not only that, it looks better than it has during this entire revival process. If a trend like this continues, it could make it back up to TC status.

[Crostorm]

Oh yea

[Crostorm]

TPXS10 PGTW 230015

A. REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HONDO)

B. 22/2330Z

C. 19.8S

D. 58.1E

E. FIVE/MET7

F. T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: D1.0/06HRS (22/2330Z)

G. IR/EIR

38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CONVCTN WRAPS .50 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. PT IS 3.0. MET IS 3.5. DBO PT.

GEIS

[Crostorm]

ZCZC 229
WTIO30 FMEE 230011
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 43/10/20072008
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 10 (EX-HONDO)
2.A POSITION 2008/02/23 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.3S / 58.1E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL ONE
DEGREES
EAST)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /W
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 27 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: SE: 300 SO: 200 NO:
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/02/23 12 UTC: 20.9S/56.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2008/02/24 00 UTC: 22.7S/54.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
36H: 2008/02/24 12 UTC: 25.1S/51.4E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
48H: 2008/02/25 00 UTC: 28.3S/50.1E FILLING UP.
60H: 2008/02/25 12 UTC: 31.0S/50.9E FILLING UP.
72H: 2008/02/26 00 UTC: 30.8S/54.3E FILLING UP.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0+
DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED TO THE SYSTEM IS REBUILDING NEAR
THE
CENTER DURING LAST HOURS.
EX-HONDO HAS A SMALL SIZE AND QUICKLY REACTS TO THE ENVIRONMENT. THE
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD REMAIN NEUTRAL TO LESS FAVOURABLE WITHIN THE NEXT
12
HOURS. BEYOND, SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO AN INCREASING EASTERLY
WINDSHEAR AND TRACK OVER A WEAK OCEAN HEAT CONTENT.
THE RIDGE EFFECT ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN. THEREFORE EX-HONDO IS FORECASTED TO ACCELERATE SOUTHWESTWARDS
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.=
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

"The Phoenix"

[Crostorm]

[Coredesat]

Partial eyewall has been there since 21Z. It may be undergoing rapid intensification.

[Squarethecircle]

No duh.

[Chacor]

Meteo France appear to have no idea...

[Crostorm]

ZCZC 623
WTIO30 FMEE 230041 RRA
............... CORRECTIVE ..............
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 43/10/20072008
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 (EX-HONDO)
2.A POSITION 2008/02/23 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.3S / 58.1E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL ONE
DEGREES
EAST)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /W
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: SE: 300 SO: 200 NO:
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/02/23 12 UTC: 20.9S/56.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2008/02/24 00 UTC: 22.7S/54.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
36H: 2008/02/24 12 UTC: 25.1S/51.4E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
48H: 2008/02/25 00 UTC: 28.3S/50.1E FILLING UP.
60H: 2008/02/25 12 UTC: 31.0S/50.9E FILLING UP.
72H: 2008/02/26 00 UTC: 30.8S/54.3E FILLING UP.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.5-
NNNN

[Crostorm]

997.9hPa Mauritius(Flic en Flca)

[RattleMan]

WTXS31 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HONDO) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 19.7S 58.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7S 58.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 21.0S 56.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 22.5S 54.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 24.7S 52.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 27.3S 51.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 20.0S 57.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (HONDO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SMALL SYSTEM REGAINED WARNING STATUS AFTER
A FLARE OF CONVECTION FORMED (AND PERSISTED) NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. SATELLITE-DERIVED INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE BETWEEN 30 KNOTS AND
40 KNOTS, AND SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS. ADDITIONALLY, A
230100Z OBSERVATION FROM FIMP (APPROXIMATELY 45 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE
TC CENTER) RECORDED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 27 KNOTS (GUSTING TO 41 KNOTS).
THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS
AS THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AMPLIFIES TO THE EAST OF TC 16S.
ONLY MODEST SHORT-TERM INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS
OVER FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BUT WITHIN A REGION OF WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING (WHICH HAS LIMITED SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS). TC 16S WILL ENCOUNTER A SHARP SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT AFTER TAU 36 AND BEGIN TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY TAU 48. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231500Z AND
240300Z.//

NNNN

[wyq614]

TS again!

wtxs31 pgtw 230300
msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor hi
subj/tropical cyclone warning//
rmks/
1. Tropical cyclone 16s (hondo) warning nr 018
01 active tropical cyclone in southio
Max sustained winds based on one-minute average
---
warning position:
230000z --- near 19.7s 58.1e
movement past six hours - 240 degrees at 08 kts
position accurate to within 040 nm
position based on center located by a combination of
satellite and synoptic data
present wind distribution:
Max sustained winds - 035 kt, gusts 045 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
repeat posit: 19.7s 58.1e
---
forecasts:
12 hrs, valid at:
231200z --- 21.0s 56.4e
Max sustained winds - 040 kt, gusts 050 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
radius of 034 kt winds - 040 nm northeast quadrant
040 nm southeast quadrant
040 nm southwest quadrant
040 nm northwest quadrant
vector to 24 hr posit: 230 deg/ 12 kts
---
24 hrs, valid at:
240000z --- 22.5s 54.4e
Max sustained winds - 035 kt, gusts 045 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
vector to 36 hr posit: 220 deg/ 14 kts
---
36 hrs, valid at:
241200z --- 24.7s 52.4e
Max sustained winds - 035 kt, gusts 045 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
vector to 48 hr posit: 195 deg/ 13 kts
---
extended outlook:
48 hrs, valid at:
250000z --- 27.3s 51.6e
Max sustained winds - 030 kt, gusts 040 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
dissipating as a significant tropical cyclone over water
---
remarks:
230300z position near 20.0s 57.7e.
Tropical cyclone (tc) 16s (hondo), located approximately 170 nm east-
northeast of La Reunion, has tracked west-southwestward at 08 knots
over the past six hours. The small system regained warning status after
a flare of convection formed (and persisted) near the low level
circulation center. Satellite-derived intensity estimates range between
30 knots and 40 knots, and support an initial intensity of 35 knots.
Additionally, a 230100z observation from fimp (approximately 45 nm
south-southwest of the tc center) recorded a sustained wind of 27 knots
(gusting to 41 knots). The cyclone is expected to accelerate
southwestward over the next 36 hours as the low to mid-level
subtropical ridge amplifies to the east of tc 16s. Only modest short-
term intensification is expected as the system remains over favorable
sea surface temperatures but within a region of weak upper level
troughing (which has limited sustained deep convection over the
past 24 hours). Tc 16s will encounter a sharp sea surface temperature
gradient after tau 36 and begin to dissipate over water by tau 48.
Maximum significant wave height at 230000z is 13 feet. Next warnings at
231500z and 240300z.//

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

WOW!!!

[Crostorm]

[Crostorm]