EPAC: Tropical Depression Alma (01E)

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Vortex
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#281 Postby Vortex » Thu May 29, 2008 9:50 am

Alma appears to be very close to landfall right now..Last few hours Alma has been moving n/nne and appears as though landfall may take place shortly.
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#282 Postby Vortex » Thu May 29, 2008 9:53 am

Does anyone have any stats on how frequent or infrequent TS strikes this area on the pacific side? It seems highly unusual!
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#283 Postby Chacor » Thu May 29, 2008 9:54 am

Hurricane Adrian made landfall in El Salvador in 2005 as a weakening TD.
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#284 Postby Thunder44 » Thu May 29, 2008 10:01 am

Vortex wrote:Alma appears to be very close to landfall right now..Last few hours Alma has been moving n/nne and appears as though landfall may take place shortly.


It's actually been moving parallel to the Nicaragua coast, on a just west of due north direction. Don't be fooled by the direction the thunderstorms blowing up around the center.
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#285 Postby KWT » Thu May 29, 2008 10:01 am

Tropical storm Alma I believe is one of the most easterly developing tropical storms in the EPAC ever, there can't be many that formed further east then this bar the ones that probably crossed over from the Atlantic side.
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Re: EPAC: Tropical Storm Alma

#286 Postby Thunder44 » Thu May 29, 2008 10:06 am

Latest visible image shows the center trying to clear out:

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#287 Postby Chacor » Thu May 29, 2008 10:07 am

Uh-oh, here we go.
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#288 Postby Pedro Fernández » Thu May 29, 2008 10:12 am

Is this a real eye? Is ALMA reaching hurricane intensity? :eek: It's incredible...
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#289 Postby KWT » Thu May 29, 2008 10:14 am

Yep thats where the microwave warm spot was placed also had hints of a eyewal lforming on that southern side as well, good job landfall is probably not that far away...why do I get a feeling its RI at present?

Could well be a good bit higher then the 40kts estimated by the NHC, that looks more like high end tropical storm sort of structure to me!
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#290 Postby Chacor » Thu May 29, 2008 10:16 am

Uhm... Not quite sure what to make of this.

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#291 Postby KWT » Thu May 29, 2008 10:18 am

Yep that certainly is quite a worrying thing to see, I did say earlier that I hope Alma doesn't do a Humberto onn us, I've got a feeing I probably cursed if when I said that because its really wrapping around very well now.
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Re: EPAC: Tropical Storm Alma (01E)

#292 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 29, 2008 10:18 am

An Eye forming?

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#293 Postby Vortex » Thu May 29, 2008 10:18 am

Eye appears to be forming on the 1445 utc Vis...Hurricane prior to landfall? Anyone have any info on hurricane strikes on the pacific side of Nicaragua..I apologize for asking just at work and have limited access.
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#294 Postby Chacor » Thu May 29, 2008 10:20 am

Forecast landfall is 00z at Corinto, Nicaragua.

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Derek Ortt

#295 Postby Derek Ortt » Thu May 29, 2008 10:20 am

ummmmm....

This is what is called the O-S*** scenario. This is more intense than 40KT. Looks like a 55KT storm now
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Re: EPAC: Tropical Storm Alma (01E)

#296 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 29, 2008 10:26 am

Is this a Humberto type scenario?

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#297 Postby KWT » Thu May 29, 2008 10:26 am

Certainly is Derek esp given the low warning time they were given. SHIP models certainly have nailed the chances of RI though, because thats exactly what /alma is doing right now, as you say Derek 55kts looks a quite reasonable guess, I just hope it doesn't get even stronger then that because the eye looks nice anc compact.

Hopefully it takes a eastward jog and gets inland now because every hour over water is allowing it to strengthen.
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#298 Postby JonathanBelles » Thu May 29, 2008 10:50 am

Ive been Alma'd lol. I just got home, and I didnt check anything before I left. As Derek said it, I said O-S*** when I got on. :lol:

Anyways, Alma looks like its 'eye' is a little early. The models are handling this amazingly.
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#299 Postby RL3AO » Thu May 29, 2008 10:51 am

Special advisory needed?
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#300 Postby KWT » Thu May 29, 2008 10:56 am

If the eye stays there and continues to keep its shape then quite possibly RL3AO, esp if Sat.estimates take a sudden jump upward from where they were before.
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