EPAC: Tropical Depression Alma (01E)

[Cyclenall]

This is clearly RI and reminds me of Adrian in a few ways. It's now Hurricane Alma pretty much right now. I thought something was up when it started forming an eyewall looking feature last night. A special advisory should be coming out right away.

[cycloneye]

WTPZ31 KNHC 291557
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALMA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012008
900 AM PDT THU MAY 29 2008

...ALMA STRENGTHEN...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED...

AT 9 AM PDT...1600 UTC...THE GOVERNMENTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS
HAVE ISSUED HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR THE PACIFIC COASTS OF THEIR
RESPECTIVE COUNTRIES. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 9 AM PDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF EL SALVADOR HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WATCH FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF EL SALVADOR. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF
COSTA RICA AND EL SALVADOR.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 900 AM PDT...1600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALMA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.9 WEST OR ABOUT 50
MILES... 80 KM...SOUTHWEST OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA AND ABOUT 210 MILES
...335 KM...SOUTHEAST OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR.

ALMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE
CENTER OF ALMA WILL REACH THE COAST OF NICARAGUA TONIGHT AND BE NEAR
THE COASTS OF HONDURAS AND EL SALVADOR DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ALMA COULD REACH THE COAST AS A
HURRICANE.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.

ALMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 15
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM COSTA RICA
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...EL
SALVADOR...AND GUATEMALA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF
20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE RAINS MAY
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 900 AM PDT POSITION...11.7 N...86.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

WTPZ21 KNHC 291557
TCMEP1
TROPICAL STORM ALMA SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012008
1600 UTC THU MAY 29 2008

AT 9 AM PDT...1600 UTC...THE GOVERNMENTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS
HAVE ISSUED HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR THE PACIFIC COASTS OF THEIR
RESPECTIVE COUNTRIES. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

AT 9 AM PDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF EL SALVADOR HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WATCH FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF EL SALVADOR. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...IN THIS CASE ALSO WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF
COSTA RICA AND EL SALVADOR.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 86.9W AT 29/1600Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 30NE 90SE 90SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 50NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 86.9W AT 29/1600Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 86.7W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 12.5N 87.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 25SE 25SW 0NW.
50 KT... 0NE 45SE 45SW 0NW.
34 KT... 30NE 90SE 90SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 14.0N 88.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 15.5N 89.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.7N 86.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[KWT]

I'm not sure its quite hurricane strength yet to be honest, that eye only really emerged even on microwave about 4-6hrs ago, I'd guess probably 55-60kts right now is fair but no doubt its getting stronger as the hours go by.

Looks like landfall is just a few hours away now anyway as the eastern 'eyewall' is just about onland now, just hope the wind gusts aren't too extreme, could well be getting upto hurricane force gusts if its as strong as is thought.

[cycloneye]

Well,they issued the special advisory.65 mph.Look at it at the advisorys thread.

[Thunder44]

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 291558
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM ALMA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012008
900 AM PDT THU MAY 29 2008

SATELLITE...MICROWAVE...AND QUIKSCAT DATA INDICATE THAT ALMA IS
STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING
ISSUED TO INCREASE THE INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITY OF ALMA AND
TO ISSUE NEW HURRICANE WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR THE WEST COAST OF
CENTRAL AMERICA. ALMA IS NOW FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE PRIOR TO
MAKING LANDFALL.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/1600Z 11.7N 86.9W 55 KT
12HR VT 30/0000Z 12.5N 87.0W 65 KT
24HR VT 30/1200Z 14.0N 88.0W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 31/0000Z 15.5N 89.0W 20 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[tolakram]

Once again intensity forecast tools are complete garbage. No blame, we're just missing a piece of the puzzle somewhere that I hope can be found soon.

[RL3AO]

Hopefully the unmanned drones will help up us understand RI more.

[KWT]

Wow I've just seen that new forecast...expected to become a hurricane, its certainly like Humberto on the otehr side of land!

Very impressive strengthening and to be fair the SHIPS forecast did point to a much higher then normal risk of RI occuring and that has indeed been the case.
Looks stunning right now and I think a lot of people who were expecting a minimal TS are going to get caught out by possibly a category-1 hurricane.

[cycloneye]

And now someone (To clarify,not in storm2k) will come out and blame GW for what is going on.

[Pedro Fernández]

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 291558
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM ALMA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012008
900 AM PDT THU MAY 29 2008

SATELLITE...MICROWAVE...AND QUIKSCAT DATA INDICATE THAT ALMA IS
STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING
ISSUED TO INCREASE THE INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITY OF ALMA AND
TO ISSUE NEW HURRICANE WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR THE WEST COAST OF
CENTRAL AMERICA. ALMA IS NOW FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE PRIOR TO
MAKING LANDFALL.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/1600Z 11.7N 86.9W 55 KT
12HR VT 30/0000Z 12.5N 87.0W 65 KT
24HR VT 30/1200Z 14.0N 88.0W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 31/0000Z 15.5N 89.0W 20 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[hurricanefloyd5]

I'm not sure its quite hurricane strength yet to be honest, that eye only really emerged even on microwave about 4-6hrs ago, I'd guess probably 55-60kts right now is fair but no doubt its getting stronger as the hours go by.

Looks like landfall is just a few hours away now anyway as the eastern 'eyewall' is just about onland now, just hope the wind gusts aren't too extreme, could well be getting upto hurricane force gusts if its as strong as is thought.

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 291547
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU MAY 29 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

ALMA RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED EARLY THIS MORNING OVER WARM E PAC
WATERS AS CONSTANT FEED OF MOIST AIR OVERCAME FRICTION WITH
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. LARGE AND POWERFUL FEEDING BANDS ON ITS W
SIDE CURVE THROUGH THE SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN QUADRANT WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF TORRENTIAL RAINS INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY AS THESE
BANDS MOVE N OVER LAND. HIGH TERRAIN MAKE CONDITIONS EVEN MORE
HAZARDOUS AS IMMINENT FLASH FLOODING WILL RESULT. HIGH SURF DUE
TO LARGE SW STORM SWELLS COMPOUND COASTAL DANGERS AND DAMAGES.
TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST FOR ALMA REMAIN COMPLICATED DUE TO
TERRAIN EFFECTS AND CHANGING CONDITIONS OVER WRN CARIBBEAN WITH
APPROACHING TRPCL WAVE ALONG 84W.

[cycloneye]

[CycloneNL]

Alma yesterday = nothing !
Alma now = is maybe a hurricane 70kts - 75kts i think !

wow

[KWT]

I have to admit cycloneye that does look like a hurricane, good inflow channels, nice deep convection in the eyewall, esp on the western side and a shallow eye present.

Yep Pedro that was what I was referring to on the last page, simply amazing to see it develop as quickly as it has, once againits caught nearly everyone out by surprise just like Humberto did last year.

[Chacor]

Alma yesterday = nothing !
Alma now = is maybe a hurricane 70kts - 75kts i think !

wow

Not quite. 55 kts as of 15 minutes ago, says the NHC. Don't get ahead of yourself.

[gatorcane]

I'm a tad worried Alma may have a chance to reemerge into the Gulf of Honduras. I'm currently seeing a due North or just North of east movement so I am awaiting the NW turn. I'm keeping a close eye on a long-wave trough that is getting to dig down into the EC to erode the ridge, but that should not happen for 72 hours+, hopefully by then Alma will be ripped apart over Central America.

[RL3AO]

Alma and a high risk over Nebraska and Iowa. Will be quite the weather day for me to follow.

[KWT]

Yep Chacor though I bet its not all that far away from 65kts right now given its presentaton as of the moment!
Gatorcane, well its just a case of wait and see to be honest, a couple of models have been trying to have Almas remians emerge back on the other side of central America so we shall see.

[Chacor]

[gatorcane]

Take a close look at this floater and enable "Trop Fcst Pts." Alma is already right of the forecasted track possibly wobbling NNE, lets see if this is a trend or just a temporary "wobble" GFS and NOGAPs may just end up getting this right after all.

These wobbles will make a huge difference in whether NW Caribbean generation will happen or not.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/epac/loop-vis.html