ATL: Tropical Depression Edouard

[Ptarmigan]

come on!

The forecast error was quite small in comparison to the long term mean

Why is it that we are seeing an increase in jabs at pro metsthis season? What is going on here? Is it an increase in children posting?

I think the Pro Mets did a good job forecasting. It was withing the cone. I think that is accurate enough.

[funster]

The way I'm looking at it from now on as long as landfall is within their "cone" then they did a great job. IMO

That's absurd because they keep adjusting the cone as they make new forecasts. Landfall will never ever be outside the continuously adjusted cone so by your standards the NHC will always do a great job.

I'm not saying the NHC doesn't do a great job - they do - but if we can't aim for perfection then what's the point? Galveston to Port Arthur Texas is an error of way more than 20 miles - more like 50+ miles and wasn't it just 24 hours ago they had their forecast pointed at the Galveston Bay area?

[Ptarmigan]

After hearing reports along the coast and places inland this morning, the wind will be very minor at most inland locations...won't be much of an issue at all.The rain doesn't seem to be MUCH of a factor either. I don't see any major flooding problems coming out of this exept for isolated pockets here and there. Hell, I guess I should of gone into work today.

Look on the bright side, we get some badly needed rain.

[hurrican19]

if you were in the cone, the NHC nailed it. They wanted to remove the 'black line' years ago because of all of this, but the public voted that down (I did too).. Cameron to High Island has been in the cone the entire time, the NHC was 100% on landfall location, imo.

[Portastorm]

Alright, getting back to the weather with Edouard ... I'm a little concerned about this snippet from the NWSFO Austin/San Antonio aviation discussion:

"DUE TO A TEMPORARILY WEAKENED RIDGE, THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK LATE TONIGHT WHICH COULD MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN THE LATTER PERIOD PROJECTIONS FOR THE AUS AREA."

Someone tonight is going to get a core rain event. While we need the rain desperately, we don't need to make up our deficit overnight. Right now, the NWSFO here says the core low will be near College Station tonight.

[Johnny]

After hearing reports along the coast and places inland this morning, the wind will be very minor at most inland locations...won't be much of an issue at all.The rain doesn't seem to be MUCH of a factor either. I don't see any major flooding problems coming out of this exept for isolated pockets here and there. Hell, I guess I should of gone into work today.

Look on the bright side, we get some badly needed rain.

All I have had so far is a very light to light rain. This won't do a thing for my area as far as the dry conditions. I'll be back to watering my lawn in about...ohhhhhh, a whole 2 to 3 days I guess. Looking at radar trends, I don't see us getting much more out of this system. I thought I would at least get an inch or two...doesn't look like that is going to happen.

I am glad to see other areas getting some good soakings.

[jabman98]

We're getting loads of rain here now (near downtown Houston). Some wind, but not bad. Just breezy with occasional gusts.

One of the local TV stations said the power companies are sending people out to do repairs during the storm. I believe this was in Galveston County.

[Smurfwicked]

The way I'm looking at it from now on as long as landfall is within their "cone" then they did a great job. IMO

That's absurd because they keep adjusting the cone as they make new forecasts. Landfall will never ever be outside the continuously adjusted cone so by your standards the NHC will always do a great job.

I'm not saying the NHC doesn't do a great job - they do - but if we can't aim for perfection then what's the point? Galveston to Port Arthur Texas is an error of way more than 20 miles - more like 50+ miles and wasn't it just 24 hours ago they had their forecast pointed at the Galveston Bay area?

I guess you make a good point. But what I am saying is the final landfall area was in the cone even when it was supposed to be southern galveston hit! Soon as Galveston went under the watches and warnings sabine pass did too. Saying that people should base their decisions on where they project the landfall to be is hinting at ignoring the watches and warnings elsewhere.

[Ptarmigan]

Alright, getting back to the weather with Edouard ... I'm a little concerned about this snippet from the NWSFO Austin/San Antonio aviation discussion:

"DUE TO A TEMPORARILY WEAKENED RIDGE, THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK LATE TONIGHT WHICH COULD MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN THE LATTER PERIOD PROJECTIONS FOR THE AUS AREA."

Someone tonight is going to get a core rain event. While we need the rain desperately, we don't need to make up our deficit overnight. Right now, the NWSFO here says the core low will be near College Station tonight.

I hope no core rain even happens.

[funster]

The way I'm looking at it from now on as long as landfall is within their "cone" then they did a great job. IMO

That's absurd because they keep adjusting the cone as they make new forecasts. Landfall will never ever be outside the continuously adjusted cone so by your standards the NHC will always do a great job.

I'm not saying the NHC doesn't do a great job - they do - but if we can't aim for perfection then what's the point? Galveston to Port Arthur Texas is an error of way more than 20 miles - more like 50+ miles and wasn't it just 24 hours ago they had their forecast pointed at the Galveston Bay area?

I guess you make a good point. But what I am saying is the final landfall area was in the cone even when it was supposed to be southern galveston hit! Soon as Galveston went under the watches and warnings sabine pass did too. Saying that people should base their decisions on where they project the landfall to be is hinting at ignoring the watches and warnings elsewhere.

I totally agree with you on all that. The public needs to not obsess about the perfect landfall point like I am and focus on the cone.

[jabman98]

I totally agree with you on all that. The public needs to not obsess about the perfect landfall point like I am and focus on the cone.

This is very true. But that's not human nature and people want to see a line so they'll "know" exactly where it will hit.

There seems to be a tendency for the storms hitting TX to move to the north/east as they near landfall. Happened with Rita, Dolly, and now Edouard. Was Humberto one of those? Wondering why that is. Just random?

[vbhoutex]

Back to Edouard.

I am concerned about reports that I am hearing that the Kemah Boardwalk(directly on Galveston Bay) is scheduled to open at noon and be fully operational by this evening. I wonder who these people get their information from. We still have a storm surge to come in later today as Edouard moves firther W of the metro area. Some parts of that area could be affected when the surge finally comes in.

Just rain and breezy(gusts to 20)in near NW Houston.

[vbhoutex]

I totally agree with you on all that. The public needs to not obsess about the perfect landfall point like I am and focus on the cone.

This is very true. But that's not human nature and people want to see a line so they'll "know" exactly where it will hit.

There seems to be a tendency for the storms hitting TX to move to the north/east as they near landfall. Happened with Rita, Dolly, and now Edouard. Was Humberto one of those? Wondering why that is. Just random?

A lot of the storms that hit the TX coast are rounding the Western periphery of a high pressure ridge when they come in. This would explain, at least partially, why this happens.

[TTheriot1975]

OK..I live on the outskirts of Port Arthur, Texas. Really...it was WAY better than last year's Humberto..mostly wind...but not constant..just gusts. I still have power as of right now, but looking at radar..a band of rain is about to come up just to our south. Also it looks like Ed is moving slow. Hope this just does not sit on top of us.

[tolakram]

Precip totals so far

[haml8]

I live in Katy, and I have not seen any significant rain.

[vbhoutex]

They are still reporting 60 mph sustained in some of the offshore bands that are developing and starting to loop in. Looks like it will not be a really fun day, but not expecting anything really bad windwise. Rains and flooding may be another matter later today as Edouard LUMBERS across the metro area. Uh, I need the rain for sure, but could you please move a little faster?

[HouTXmetro]

Right, is ED booking along nicely? Would not want another Allison.

[Texas SpeedDiva]

Back to Edouard.

I am concerned about reports that I am hearing that the Kemah Boardwalk(directly on Galveston Bay) is scheduled to open at noon and be fully operational by this evening. I wonder who these people get their information from. We still have a storm surge to come in later today as Edouard moves firther W of the metro area. Some parts of that area could be affected when the surge finally comes in.

Just rain and breezy(gusts to 20)in near NW Houston.

You have got to be kidding. I am in League City not that far from the Boardwalk and it's still pretty dadgum breezy/windy here and the rain is still coming down pretty good. I realize noon is a couple hours away, but sheesh. It's all about the money isn't it.

[jabman98]

I totally agree with you on all that. The public needs to not obsess about the perfect landfall point like I am and focus on the cone.

This is very true. But that's not human nature and people want to see a line so they'll "know" exactly where it will hit.

There seems to be a tendency for the storms hitting TX to move to the north/east as they near landfall. Happened with Rita, Dolly, and now Edouard. Was Humberto one of those? Wondering why that is. Just random?

A lot of the storms that hit the TX coast are rounding the Western periphery of a high pressure ridge when they come in. This would explain, at least partially, why this happens.

Thanks, vb. It's getting to the point where I'm expecting the storms to go east/north of the projected landfall. Which can make a big difference depending on the size and structure of the storm. I know I'm not the only one who has noticed this tendency, as even non-hurricane-watching friends have mentioned that, "it's not coming here - look at Rita - it went east". Now that Edouard has done the same thing it won't do much to change that way of thinking.

I know, I know, the cone, but the average person looks at the line and want to know exactly where it will hit. And when they consistently go east of projected landfall, that's something people will remember.