South Indian Ocean:Tropical Depression Ex-Pancho （潘乔 TC26S)

[HURAKAN]

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 0711UTC 26 MARCH 2008

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0600 UTC Tropical Cyclone Pancho was located within 25 nautical miles of
latitude fifteen decimal nine south [15.9S]
longitude one hundred and four decimal five east [104.5E]
Recent movement : south southeast at 6 knots
Maximum winds : 60 knots
Central pressure: 970 hPa


AREA AFFECTED
Within 120 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 60 knots near the centre increasing to 80 knots by 0600 UTC 27
March.
Winds above 34 knots within 120 nautical miles of the centre with rough seas and
moderate swell.
Winds above 48 knots within 40 nautical miles of the centre with very rough seas
and moderate swell.
Winds above 64 knots within 20 nautical miles of centre developing after 0900
UTC 25 March with very high to phenomenal seas.

Forecast positions
At 1800 UTC 26 March: Within 50 nautical miles of 17.1 south 105.1 east
Central pressure 962 hPa.
Winds to 70 knots near centre.
At 0600 UTC 27 March: Within 80 nautical miles of 19.0 south 105.7 east
Central pressure 950 hPa.
Winds to 80 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite to SAC 1241 through Land Earth Station Perth 312.

Next warning will be issued by 1300 UTC 26 March 2008.

WEATHER PERTH

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

Great eye!!!

[P.K.]

Just been upgraded to a cat 3.

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL SUMMARY: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1308 UTC 26/03/2008
Name: Pancho
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 17.1S
Longitude: 105.0E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm (37 km)
Movement Towards: south southeast (158 deg)
Speed of Movement: 9 knots (17 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 65 knots (120 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 90 knots (170 km/h)
Central Pressure: 966 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 120 nm (220 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 120 nm (220 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 120 nm (220 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 120 nm (220 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds: 30 nm (55 km)
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 300 nm (555 km)
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+12: 27/0000: 18.9S 105.5E: 045 (085): 080 (150): 950
+24: 27/1200: 20.9S 106.2E: 080 (150): 090 (165): 938
+36: 28/0000: 22.8S 106.8E: 100 (185): 085 (155): 944
+48: 28/1200: 24.3S 106.9E: 140 (260): 080 (150): 950
REMARKS:
Pancho has developed an eye in VIS and IR imagery over the last 6 hours as the system
intensifies. The system is in a low shear environment shear with favourable upper level
outflow.

Dvorak: FT/CI of 4.5 based on DT of 4.5 - wrap of greater than 1.5in VIS images. Subsequent IR images show an OW eye embedded in a surrounding shade of B which gives a higher DT of 6.0.

Further intensification can be expected in the next 24 hours with ongoing low wind shear and
favourable upper outflow. The intensity is expected to reach a maximum in the next 24 to 36
hours and then the system should weaken as it moves over cooler SST's and the shear
increases with the approach of a midlevel trough.

The range of model guidance favour a southerly or southeasterly track in the next 48 hours.
The system may then slow and becoming strongly influenced by an amplifying upper level low
to the southwest.
Notes:
This product is issued every six hours; the Cyclone Advices (Watches and Warnings) are
usually issued more frequently and contain more useful information for coastal communities.

Time Conversion from UTC to local:
WST add 8 hrs (Add another hour for daylight saving)
CST add 9 hrs 30 min
EST add 10 hrs (Add another hour for daylight saving)
==
he next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 26/1900 UTC by Perth TCWC.

[HURAKAN]

NRL: 85 knots

26/0830 UTC 16.7S 104.8E T4.5/4.5 PANCHO -- South Indian Ocean

[HURAKAN]

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 1312UTC 26 MARCH 2008

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Pancho was located within 20 nautical miles
of
latitude seventeen decimal one south [17.1S]
longitude one hundred and five decimal zero east [105.0E]
Recent movement : south southeast at 9 knots
Maximum winds : 65 knots
Central pressure: 966 hPa


AREA AFFECTED
Within 120 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 65 knots near the centre increasing to 90 knots by 1200 UTC 27
March.
Winds above 34 knots within 120 nautical miles of the centre increasing to 140
nautical miles after 0600UTC 28 March with rough seas and moderate swell.
Winds above 48 knots within 50 nautical miles of the centre increasing to 60
nautical miles after 0600UTC 28 March with very rough seas and moderate swell.
Winds above 64 knots within 30 nautical miles of centre with very high to
phenomenal seas.

Forecast positions
At 0000 UTC 27 March: Within 45 nautical miles of 18.9 south 105.5 east
Central pressure 950 hPa.
Winds to 80 knots near centre.
At 1200 UTC 27 March: Within 80 nautical miles of 20.9 south 106.2 east
Central pressure 938 hPa.
Winds to 90 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite to SAC 1241 through Land Earth Station Perth 312.

Next warning will be issued by 1900 UTC 26 March 2008.

WEATHER PERTH

[P.K.]

WTAU05 APRF 261850
IDW23100
40:3:2:24:18S105E999:11:00
PAN PAN

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 1849UTC 26 MARCH 2008

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1800 UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Pancho was located within 20 nautical miles
of
latitude eighteen decimal zero south [18.0S]
longitude one hundred and five decimal two east [105.2E]
Recent movement : south southeast at 9 knots
Maximum winds : 80 knots
Central pressure: 950 hPa


AREA AFFECTED
Within 120 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 80 knots near the centre increasing to 90 knots by 0600 UTC 27
March.
Winds above 34 knots within 120 nautical miles of the centre increasing to 140
nautical miles after 0600UTC 28 March with rough seas and moderate swell.
Winds above 48 knots within 50 nautical miles of the centre increasing to 60
nautical miles after 0600UTC 28 March with very rough seas and moderate swell.
Winds above 64 knots within 30 nautical miles of centre with very high to
phenomenal seas.

Forecast positions
At 0600 UTC 27 March: Within 45 nautical miles of 19.9 south 105.7 east
Central pressure 938 hPa.
Winds to 90 knots near centre.
At 1800 UTC 27 March: Within 80 nautical miles of 21.9 south 106.6 east
Central pressure 944 hPa.
Winds to 85 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite to SAC 1241 through Land Earth Station Perth 312.

Next warning will be issued by 0100 UTC 27 March 2008.

WEATHER PERTH

[HURAKAN]

[G.B.]

IDW27300
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL SUMMARY: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1849 UTC 26/03/2008
Name: Pancho
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 18.0S
Longitude: 105.2E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm (37 km)
Movement Towards: south southeast (168 deg)
Speed of Movement: 9 knots (17 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 80 knots (150 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 115 knots (215 km/h)
Central Pressure: 950 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 120 nm (220 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 120 nm (220 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 120 nm (220 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 120 nm (220 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds: 30 nm (55 km)
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 250 nm (465 km)
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+12: 27/0600: 19.9S 105.7E: 045 (085): 090 (165): 938
+24: 27/1800: 21.9S 106.6E: 080 (150): 085 (155): 944
+36: 28/0600: 23.6S 106.9E: 100 (185): 080 (150): 950
+48: 28/1800: 24.8S 106.4E: 140 (260): 075 (140): 958
REMARKS:
Pancho continues to develop and has an eye in IR satellite imagery. The system is in a low shear environment shear with favourable upper level outflow.

Further intensification can be expected in the next 24 hours with ongoing low wind shear and
favourable upper outflow. The intensity is expected to reach a maximum in the next 24
hours and then the system should weaken as it moves over cooler SST's and the shear
increases with the approach of a midlevel trough.

The range of model guidance favour a southerly or southeasterly track in the next 48 hours.
The system may then slow and becoming strongly influenced by an amplifying upper level low
to the southwest.
Notes:
This product is issued every six hours; the Cyclone Advices (Watches and Warnings) are
usually issued more frequently and contain more useful information for coastal communities.

Time Conversion from UTC to local:
WST add 8 hrs (Add another hour for daylight saving)
CST add 9 hrs 30 min
EST add 10 hrs (Add another hour for daylight saving)
==
he next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 27/0100 UTC by Perth TCWC.

[HURAKAN]

85kts-959mb

[G.B.]

Pancho is giving the WA coast some much needed rain that both Nicholas and Ophelia didn't. The jetstream is also giving the southern Queensland and northern NSW coast rain, if only it would give Sydney some too.

[G.B.]

IDW27300
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL SUMMARY: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0116 UTC 27/03/2008
Name: Pancho
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 19.0S
Longitude: 105.9E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm (37 km)
Movement Towards: south southeast (155 deg)
Speed of Movement: 9 knots (16 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 90 knots (165 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 125 knots (230 km/h)
Central Pressure: 938 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 140 nm (260 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 140 nm (260 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 140 nm (260 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 140 nm (260 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 55 nm (100 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 55 nm (100 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 55 nm (100 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 55 nm (100 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds: 30 nm (55 km)
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T5.5/5.5/D1.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 280 nm (520 km)
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+12: 27/1200: 20.8S 106.5E: 045 (085): 085 (155): 944
+24: 28/0000: 22.3S 106.7E: 075 (140): 065 (120): 966
+36: 28/1200: 23.5S 106.6E: 105 (195): 055 (100): 972
+48: 29/0000: 24.6S 106.2E: 135 (250): 045 (085): 986
REMARKS:
Pancho intensified from yesterday afternoon developing an eye well evident on microwave and
IR satellite imagery. The system appears to have peaked overnight with some expansion of the
eye evident on recent microwave imagery.

Dvorak: FT/CI =5.5 based on IR eye pattern. DT has varied between 5.0 and 6.0 in last 12
hours with surrounding shade mainly LG (5.0) with occasional eye adjustment of 0.5 (OW/B) addition.

While the system has enjoyed favourable environmental conditions of low shear and good upper level outflow in the last 24 hours this is set to change markedly in the next 12 to 24 hours.
Increasing shear and cooler sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are likely to weaken the system as
it continues to move south.

The range of model guidance favour a south to southeasterly track in the next 24/36 hours and then move to the south southwest and become extra-tropical, influenced by an amplifying
upper level low to the southwest.
Notes:
This product is issued every six hours; the Cyclone Advices (Watches and Warnings) are
usually issued more frequently and contain more useful information for coastal communities.

Time Conversion from UTC to local:
WST add 8 hrs (Add another hour for daylight saving)
CST add 9 hrs 30 min
EST add 10 hrs (Add another hour for daylight saving)
==
he next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 27/0700 UTC by Perth TCWC.

[G.B.]

[HURAKAN]

Back to beautiful!!!

[RL3AO]

Great looking cyclone.

[HURAKAN]

Cat. 4 Aussie Scale. One of the strongest this season. Nice fish!!!



HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 0056UTC 27 MARCH 2008

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0000 UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Pancho was located within 20 nautical miles
of
latitude nineteen decimal zero south [19.0S]
longitude one hundred and five decimal nine east [105.9E]
Recent movement : south southeast at 9 knots
Maximum winds : 90 knots
Central pressure: 938 hPa


AREA AFFECTED
Within 140 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 90 knots near the centre easing to 65 knots by 0000 UTC 28
March.
Winds above 64 knots within 30 nautical miles of centre with very high to
phenomenal seas.
Winds above 48 knots within 55 nautical miles of the centre with very rough seas
and moderate swell.
Winds above 34 knots within 140 nautical miles of the centre with rough seas and
moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 1200 UTC 27 March: Within 45 nautical miles of 20.8 south 106.5 east
Central pressure 944 hPa.
Winds to 85 knots near centre.
At 0000 UTC 28 March: Within 75 nautical miles of 22.3 south 106.7 east
Central pressure 966 hPa.
Winds to 65 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite to SAC 1241 through Land Earth Station Perth 312.

Next warning will be issued by 0700 UTC 27 March 2008.

WEATHER PERTH

[HURAKAN]

27/0230 UTC 20.1S 106.0E T5.5/5.5 PANCHO

WWIO21 KNES 270305

A. 26S (PANCHO)

B. 27/0230Z

C. 20.1S

D. 106.0E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T5.5/5.5/D1.5/24HRS

G. VIS/IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...DT=5.5 BASED ON OW EYE WITH LG RING(BL NOT THICK ENOUGH)
SURROUNDED BY WH. PT=5.5. MET=5.0.

[G.B.]

[G.B.]

IDW27300
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL SUMMARY: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0709 UTC 27/03/2008
Name: Pancho
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 20.6S
Longitude: 106.3E
Location Accuracy: within 25 nm (46 km)
Movement Towards: south southeast (163 deg)
Speed of Movement: 13 knots (23 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 90 knots (165 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 125 knots (230 km/h)
Central Pressure: 938 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 140 nm (260 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 160 nm (295 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 150 nm (280 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 140 nm (260 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 55 nm (100 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 55 nm (100 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 55 nm (100 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 55 nm (100 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds: 30 nm (55 km)
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T5.0/5.5/D1.0-/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 250 nm (465 km)
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+12: 27/1800: 22.7S 107.1E: 055 (100): 075 (140): 958
+24: 28/0600: 24.1S 107.3E: 080 (150): 055 (100): 974
+36: 28/1800: 25.3S 107.4E: 105 (195): 045 (085): 986
+48: 29/0600: 26.6S 106.8E: 140 (260): 040 (075): 990
REMARKS:
After a period of sustained intensification yesterday and overnight, Pancho peaked earlier this
morning and has now shown indications of weakening.

Dvorak: FT=5.0 based on IR eye pattern surrounding shade LG with no eye adjustment.

After enjoying favourable environmental conditions of low shear and good upper level outflow
until earlier today, Pancho is moving rapidly towards a region of increasing shear and cooler sea surface temperatures (SSTs) which should result in rapid weakening in the next 48 hours as
it continues to move south.

The range of model guidance favour a south to southeasterly track in the next 24/36 hours and then a south southwest track as the system becomes extra-tropical, influenced by an amplifying upper level low to the southwest.

Gales are likely to continue in southern quadrants on Sunday and Monday owing to a pressure
gradient squeeze between the extra-tropical low and a strong high further to the south.
Notes:
This product is issued every six hours; the Cyclone Advices (Watches and Warnings) are
usually issued more frequently and contain more useful information for coastal communities.

Time Conversion from UTC to local:
WST add 8 hrs (Add another hour for daylight saving)
CST add 9 hrs 30 min
EST add 10 hrs (Add another hour for daylight saving)
==
he next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 27/1300 UTC by Perth TCWC.

[HURAKAN]