Bay of Bengal: Invest 96B

[HURAKAN]

1500


2100


Rapid increase in convection.

[fasterdisaster]

This is terrible. It's too early to panic but this could have potential to be the third 4 or more-digit death toll catastrophe in just 2-3 weeks judging by a possible track into the Calcutta-Dhaka area.

[Sanibel]

I could be wrong, but I'm not seeing a Calcutta track from this. Too close to land to really strengthen.

[Chacor]

Now looks to be over water.

[KWT]

Yeah looks like its over water though it is pretty close to land and whilst I do think it has a shot at developing this may hinder its chances of developing all that strong.

[Sanibel]

Looks like it has energy - so I hope it doesn't get squarely back over water.

[HURAKAN]

[senorpepr]

From the Dep't of Meteorology and Hydrology in Myanmar...




To translate the isobars...

The dotted line around 96B is 1003mb. Each isobar beyond that is spaced every 2 millibars. The southernmost isobar is 1010mb. In the NE corner, that isobar is 1014mb.

[HURAKAN]

Looking better.

[Ad Novoxium]

If you ask me, I think it looks pretty good. It's kind of like the current states of Cosme and Matmo. I give it depression status by the next two days, then an Indian landfall (but only as, at best, a Cat 1 equivalent cyclone). Land has a bit of interraction maybe, but the storm seems fairly overwater enough to prevent that from being a problem. The good news is, we have the IMD to report on storms in this basin.

The bad news is, we have the IMD to report on storms in this basin.

[badkhan]

It looks quite weak right now while a weak system near the coast of Somalia has developed quite a bit in the past 5-6 hours.

[Chacor]

Nothing more than a random burst of convection, it appears. There's another similar random burst in the middle of the open southeast Pacific. I don't think you can call the thing off Somalia a "system". At least not just yet.

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

Certainly an active time for the tropics at the moment, at last we are getting some sustained development occuring. 96B still has a little bit of developing to go yet before it could become a system .

As for the Samolia system, will be interesting to see whether it emerges into the atlantic in the next 10 days!

[senorpepr]

96B has been dropped from NRL...

Myanmar still analyzes it as a 1003mb low.