EPAC: Invest 91E - Southern México

[KWT]

Yep indeed and there is clearly a good circulation, I'm expecting it to be upgraded soon...

also don't know why the center of that development warning is that far west, does appear that the circulation center is right on the western extent!

Finally models may not be able to have a good indication of the remains of Arthur to the north, still has a circulation and thus is probably helping to put an easterly component into the tracck of 91E compared with what some of the models are suggesting IMO.

[JonathanBelles]

How many crows and socks should I order for the Alma/Arthur name change ceremony? lol

[KWT]

Also because I don't think its been put up here is the Dvorak estimate, not far off TD status at the time:

02/1745 UTC 14.2N 93.0W T1.0/1.0 91E -- East Pacific Ocean

[Ed Mahmoud]

NRL page still calls it 91E, so I'd hazard a guess, no upgrade.

[KWT]

Any upgrade will probably come after the next dvorak estimate comes in I reckon, if it goes upto 1.5 then I suspect we will see an upgrade, I think it will stay as 91E for now unless it really does crank up in a big way soon.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Down to 1009 mb at Tapachula.

[JonathanBelles]

Not sure which thread to post this in:

[MGC]

91E looks on the verge of being upgraded. At its current movement it should be inland later tonight. I'm betting the remnants of Arthur regenerates if it makes it to the BOC.....MGC

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON JUN 02 2008

WEAK CUT OFF CYCLONIC VORTEX OVER BAY OF CAMPECHE PRODUCING
DIFFLUENT FLOW IN COMBINATION WITH CENTRAL MEXICO RIDGE
ENHANCING DEEP CONVECTION OVER REMNANTS OF ARTHUR AND OVER GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC...WHERE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRES CENTER IS
EXPECTED WITHIN NEXT 36-48 HRS. AREA CONTINUES UNDER HEAVY
PRECIPITATION.

[KWT]

fact, its a really messy set-up alright, one that has already given 2 tropical storms mind you so at least there is some end product to all this I suppose.

I think 91E probably has a good 12-24hrs over water at the moment given its really only drifting its way towards land at the moment but I agree it does seem to be on the verge.

[ColdFusion]

91E looks on the verge of being upgraded. At its current movement it should be inland later tonight. I'm betting the remnants of Arthur regenerates if it makes it to the BOC.....MGC

His posts always reminds me of Shatners character on Boston Legal when he finishes all his sentences with "...Denny Crane"

[curtadams]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rgb.htmlDistinct low-cloud cyclonic motion centering on gatorcane's eye-like feature. Surface winds, insofar as we have them, are cyclonic but very weak.

[srainhoutx]

AXPZ20 KNHC 022213
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON JUN 02 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A NEARLY STATIONARY LOW PRES CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14N94W 1007 MB
IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER THAT COVERS
THE ERN PACIFIC WATERS AND LAND AREAS FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN
91W-98W. THIS AREA HAS BECOME ORGANIZED DURING THE DAY...AND
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
A PRETTY WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER WITH THIS SYSTEM. IR
IMAGERY DEPICTS SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER OVER THE SW QUADRANT...AND WITHIN
120 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE SE AND S QUADRANTS. IF NEW CONVECTION
DEVELOPS AROUND THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE CENTER THE SYSTEM WOULD
THEN INTENSIFY. IT IS FORECAST TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER
EL SALVADOR...GUATEMALA AND THE SE PORTION OF MEXICO DURING THE
NEXT 48 HRS.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 2213.shtml?

[Chacor]

Waiting for the 00z ATCF now...

[Thunder44]

Waiting for the 00z ATCF now...

I don't think they are going to upgrade tonight, without a more convection around the center. It doesn't look as good as it did earlier in the day.

[HURAKAN]

02/1745 UTC 14.2N 93.0W T1.0/1.0 91E -- East Pacific Ocean

[Chacor]

Still a LOW in the ATCF file.

[StormspinnerD2]

Doesn't look great at all right now.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]