ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[HURAKAN]

Thanks....is that because of the upper level steering? Trying to learn....

If it stays weak, then the easterly flow will dominate. If it intensifies, then we get into the upper level steering.

[cycloneye]

The 12 UTC Best Track for 92L: Due West.

AL, 92, 2008081012, , BEST, 0, 108N, 430W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

[Derek Ortt]

conditions look somewhat favorable for development

[bvigal]

Thanks, Luis. That makes more sense to me. I guess when they are done with model data for all those Pacific systems, they will sit and figure out 92L, so we can see what we've got. I hope everyone at NHC has caught up on their sleep, looks like they will be busy for some time!

Edit: and while I was typing, it was posted! (see below)

[bvigal]

680
WHXX01 KWBC 101254
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1254 UTC SUN AUG 10 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922008) 20080810 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080810 1200 080811 0000 080811 1200 080812 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.5N 43.0W 11.5N 44.3W 12.3N 45.8W 12.9N 47.3W
BAMD 10.5N 43.0W 11.1N 45.0W 11.6N 47.0W 12.0N 48.9W
BAMM 10.5N 43.0W 11.1N 44.9W 11.8N 46.6W 12.4N 48.0W
LBAR 10.5N 43.0W 10.9N 45.6W 11.6N 48.2W 12.3N 50.9W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 36KTS 45KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 36KTS 45KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080812 1200 080813 1200 080814 1200 080815 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.6N 49.6W 16.0N 55.0W 18.8N 61.6W 21.2N 68.2W
BAMD 12.5N 50.9W 14.5N 55.6W 16.2N 61.0W 17.2N 66.8W
BAMM 13.0N 49.9W 14.9N 54.8W 16.7N 60.4W 17.8N 66.5W
LBAR 13.1N 53.6W 15.1N 58.6W 17.1N 63.8W 19.3N 68.7W
SHIP 55KTS 71KTS 81KTS 84KTS
DSHP 55KTS 71KTS 81KTS 84KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.5N LONCUR = 43.0W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 10.5N LONM12 = 39.7W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 10.5N LONM24 = 36.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[Mecklenburg]

right now it is under light SAL...

[Mecklenburg]

if this indeed would develop into something, it may disrupt the development of the wave behind it... let's see what the GFS loop might have for tomorrow

[Gustywind]

680
WHXX01 KWBC 101254
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1254 UTC SUN AUG 10 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922008) 20080810 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080810 1200 080811 0000 080811 1200 080812 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.5N 43.0W 11.5N 44.3W 12.3N 45.8W 12.9N 47.3W
BAMD 10.5N 43.0W 11.1N 45.0W 11.6N 47.0W 12.0N 48.9W
BAMM 10.5N 43.0W 11.1N 44.9W 11.8N 46.6W 12.4N 48.0W
LBAR 10.5N 43.0W 10.9N 45.6W 11.6N 48.2W 12.3N 50.9W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 36KTS 45KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 36KTS 45KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080812 1200 080813 1200 080814 1200 080815 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.6N 49.6W 16.0N 55.0W 18.8N 61.6W 21.2N 68.2W
BAMD 12.5N 50.9W 14.5N 55.6W 16.2N 61.0W 17.2N 66.8W
BAMM 13.0N 49.9W 14.9N 54.8W 16.7N 60.4W 17.8N 66.5W
LBAR 13.1N 53.6W 15.1N 58.6W 17.1N 63.8W 19.3N 68.7W
SHIP 55KTS 71KTS 81KTS 84KTS
DSHP 55KTS 71KTS 81KTS 84KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.5N LONCUR = 43.0W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 10.5N LONM12 = 39.7W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 10.5N LONM24 = 36.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

Just a first run, but seems close to Guadeloupe and Antigua and by extension near you PR Cycloneye as cat 2 status wait and see the other runs with the others models will give us a better handle on that...

[KatDaddy]

Currently the good news for the W and NW GOM is the forcasted troughs over the E US during the upcoming week.
This will keep us protected from tropical cyclone moving into the Caribbean. However the E GOM up through the E Seaboard may have some threats down the road.

Houston-Galveston AFD Excerpt:

LASTLY...THE TROPICS LOOK TO BE GETTING MORE ACTIVE. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SYSTEM APPROACHING FL/CUBA
BY AUGUST 19TH. CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR THE SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP. 500 MB FLOW SHOWS A BREAK IN THE RIDGE AND A WEAK TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THIS TIME...THE SYSTEM LOOKS
LIKE IT`LL TURN TO THE NORTH OVER THE EASTERN GULF. BEARS WATCH.

[HURAKAN]

[Sanibel]

Potential trouble here. This system is still developing as it approaches the islands meaning its peak could happen further west (If it develops). It has a low perch entry at 11N. Right now I believe the Bermuda High extension Florida High is south of Florida in the Caribbean due to the front. That could be a low-track synoptic? 92L is weak enough and without enough convection on its NE side that the Caribbean could break it up, but I assume Dolly did the feeling out in this area and 92L is in a similar track and should develop as Dolly did. Probably show time folks.

[KatDaddy]

Hey Cyclone I think you have some long weeks ahead as the Wave Train takes off. With a weaker ridge it looks like the path would be across the NE Caribbean.

[HURAKAN]

Floater: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float1.html

[perk]

Currently the good news for the W and NW GOM is the forcasted troughs over the E US during the upcoming week.
This will keep us protected from tropical cyclone moving into the Caribbean. However the E GOM up through the E Seaboard may have some threats down the road.

Houston-Galveston AFD Excerpt:

LASTLY...THE TROPICS LOOK TO BE GETTING MORE ACTIVE. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SYSTEM APPROACHING FL/CUBA
BY AUGUST 19TH. CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR THE SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP. 500 MB FLOW SHOWS A BREAK IN THE RIDGE AND A WEAK TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THIS TIME...THE SYSTEM LOOKS
LIKE IT`LL TURN TO THE NORTH OVER THE EASTERN GULF. BEARS WATCH.

katdaddy i'm surprised that the houston/galveston nws is even commenting on this system so early, but right now i'm not totally convinced that the nw or western gom should be ruled out.

[RL3AO]

Houston-Galveston AFD Excerpt:

LASTLY...THE TROPICS LOOK TO BE GETTING MORE ACTIVE. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SYSTEM APPROACHING FL/CUBA
BY AUGUST 19TH. CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR THE SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP. 500 MB FLOW SHOWS A BREAK IN THE RIDGE AND A WEAK TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THIS TIME...THE SYSTEM LOOKS
LIKE IT`LL TURN TO THE NORTH OVER THE EASTERN GULF. BEARS WATCH.

[Sanibel]

That eastern Gulf forecast reminds me of Charley.

[hawkeh]

How about we worry about the islands first, sheesh

[HURAKAN]

[KatDaddy]

Hear come the Bears. Yes I agree the Islands need to be watching this very closely.

[Gustywind]

How about we worry about the islands first, sheesh

Good post and reasoning glad to see that we're first concerned if something happens (should it verifies first), time will tell but first predictions does not show something pleasant for us in the Leewards Islands...