ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[johngaltfla]

Just a heads up.

If you wake up at 0430 like some of us do and see notifications going out to the rigs in the Gulf you'll know the private mets have sent their advisories to the oil companies. You'll know this also by a $2.00 per bbl spike in prices. I think everyone is on to something with this new data and yes if it only skirts the Yucatan tomorrow or goes into the slot prepare for a short bit of hysteria in the media.

Top your tanks off now though, wherever you live because the rush will come the minute the "threat" IF ANY is broadcast on the news about the rigs. The next 8-12 hours will tell the tale.

[dixiebreeze]

URNT12 KWBC 210004
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 20/2354Z
B. 19 DEG 20 MIN N
85 DEG 15 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1502 M
D. 45 KT
E. 030 DEG 70 NM
F. 123 DEG 54 KT
G. 035 DEG 60 NM
H. 1007 MB
I. 20 C/1537 M
J. 20 C/1538 M
K. 14 C/27 C
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134/8
O. 1/10 NM
P. NOAA3 0804A DOLLY OB 14 AL042008
MAX FLT LVL WIND 54 KT NE QUAD 2337Z.
SFC PRESS FM DROPSONDE.

[Weatherfreak000]

The Entire Texas coast might be the cone for this storm.

Intense storms definitely slide more Poleward, and conditions are setting up for at least a Category 2, most likely 3. If I were living in Texas right now I wouldn't blink.

[Wx_Warrior]

Most this morning couldn't wait for the afternoon models today. We are 5 days out.

[dixiebreeze]

Reminder for newbies (both storms at 2.5/2.5:

Dvorak Current Intensity Chart

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



CI MWS MWS MSLP MSLP Saffir-Simpson
Number (Knots) (MPH) (Atlantic) (NW Pacific) Category
1 25 KTS 29 MPH (Approximate)
1.5 25 KTS 29 MPH
2 30 KTS 35 MPH 1009 mb 1000 mb
2.5 35 KTS 40 MPH 1005 mb 997 mb
3 45 KTS 52 MPH 1000 mb 991 mb
3.5 55 KTS 63 MPH 994 mb 984 mb
4 65 KTS 75 MPH 987 mb 976 mb 1 (64-83 KTS)
4.5 77 KTS 89 MPH 979 mb 966 mb 1 (64-83 KTS); 2 (84-96 KTS)
5 90 KTS 104 MPH 970 mb 954 mb 2 (84-96 KTS); 3 (97-113 KTS)
5.5 102 KTS 117 MPH 960 mb 941 mb 3 (97-113 KTS)
6 115 KTS 132 MPH 948 mb 927 mb 4 (114-135 KTS)
6.5 127 KTS 146 MPH 935 mb 914 mb 4 (114-135 KTS)
7 140 KTS 161 MPH 921 mb 898 mb 5 (136+ KTS)
7.5 155 KTS 178 MPH 906 mb 879 mb 5 (136+ KTS)
8 170 KTS 196 MPH 890 mb 858 mb 5 (136+ KTS)

[Viper54r]

Attn Storm2K archivist: Please note the caveats when "documenting."

No need to get bent out of shape, I guess I should have put I agree with you

That would help...and nobody is bent out of shape...its just that people (all people) have a tendency to half-document what the weather man says...

And since most of us are professional liars, we always leave ourselves a way out.

I apologize for the confusion, you're actually my favorite Met

[stevetampa33614]

I just looked at the radar. Dolly looks like she jumped right a little even further. If that high stays in the north middle of the gulf then its either a hard left or hard right Sometime tommorrow. Welp guess we will find out soon enough. Will also wait for new Models.

Am seeing some very interesting on the loop

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

Dark spot trying to form in the middle of the pink. is it what i think it is?

[Weatherfreak000]

Highest SST's in the Gulf are right under Texas's nose right now. I hate to make insinuations but that's not very good-looking.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Just a heads up.

If you wake up at 0430 like some of us do and see notifications going out to the rigs in the Gulf you'll know the private mets have sent their advisories to the oil companies. You'll know this also by a $2.00 per bbl spike in prices. I think everyone is on to something with this new data and yes if it only skirts the Yucatan tomorrow or goes into the slot prepare for a short bit of hysteria in the media.

Top your tanks off now though, wherever you live because the rush will come the minute the "threat" IF ANY is broadcast on the news about the rigs. The next 8-12 hours will tell the tale.

Models have basically been on Dolly since mid week last week, and the USO doesn't seem to suggest markets are spooked. While there is oil production offshore Texas, the biggest production is South of the New Orleans area, which is why Katrina, Ivan and Rita were so bad.

Unless this storm does something radical, crude shouldn't be too badly affected. A couple of refineries near Corpus Christi, but that is also centered between HOU area and MSY.

[mvtrucking]

Mods,

Can you turn off the avatars to increase load speeds??

[weatherSnoop]

Tight with a tail. Seriously. It looks like the circulation has come together and will fit through the Channel.

[Javlin]

I am thinking that once this gets in the GOM a turn more Westward will occur.Do I believe it goes further N up TX coast yea.I never rely on points 4-5 days out glad to be the mark when that happens to me.The upper level clouds continue to change...........

earlier about 3hrs ago


latest shot


once this girl start to stack will she feel the upper level flow more?just some obs.

[x-y-no]

B. 19 DEG 20 MIN N
85 DEG 15 MIN W

So the LLC is still on the SW periphery of the convective blob ...

[Jason_B]

I just looked at the radar. Dolly looks like she jumped right a little even further. If that high stays in the north middle of the gulf then its either a hard left or hard right Sometime tommorrow. Welp guess we will find out soon enough. Will also wait for new Models.

This storm is not turning right.

[alan1961]

I agree Cape.... and look at the latest loop... shes going to miss the yucatan all together... i think the center will pass straight through the channel

i'll second that nederlander

[MGC]

The oil speculators are looking for any excuse to bid up the price of oil. Even though I doubt the oil fields will get anything out of this other than some rough seas you never know what the markets will do tomorrow morning. Having just taken a long look at the sat and radar, I'd conclude that a center reformation is highly likely tonight. This likely will allow Dolly to become at least a Cat-2 hurricane prior to landfall due to minimal land interaction. Depending on how strong the ridge to Dolly's north will be, I'm thinking the folks on the southern Texas coast might need to get their hurricane supplies in order. Just a reminder that the recomended supplies are not adequate as we found out after Katrina......MGC

[Sanibel]

If the ULL slides a little more SW it will start venting Dolly.

[Jagno]

Thanks Dixiebreeze. It's always nice to have that handy.

Ed; production and refineries go hand in hand and the refineries will be shut down halting all production. As for the markets, look out tomorrow morning when Dolly emerges into the gulf. My son works for Citgo and they are already in planning stages since it takes a minimum of 3 days to shut down the cooling units safely. And yes, there are production rigs and pipelines going to the refineries located in and across the western gulf of mexico.

[rockyman]

Anybody wanna bite at this doughnut?

[Steve]

>>So the LLC is still on the SW periphery of the convective blob ...

Yeah, that would confirm that the blowup of convection is likely to dissipate later and reform closer to the center - maybe. It's also quite possible that there are multiple centers spinning around there too.

Steve