ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[stevetampa33614]

I have an odd feeling Florida needs to watch this too just in case.

What do I base this on? Well it went through the Herbert Box...


arggg. The weather channel still has the COC S OF COZuMEL

[Ed Mahmoud]

I just looked at the radar. Dolly looks like she jumped right a little even further. If that high stays in the north middle of the gulf then its either a hard left or hard right Sometime tommorrow. Welp guess we will find out soon enough. Will also wait for new Models.

Am seeing some very interesting on the loop

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

Dark spot trying to form in the middle of the pink. is it what i think it is?

I see it as well, but somehow I think it is too soon.

[jeff]

A landfall up the TX coast is certianly possible. I think cat 2 or even 3 is also very possible

[Rainband]

I have an odd feeling Florida needs to watch this too just in case.

What do I base this on? Well it went through the Herbert Box...


arggg. The weather channel still has the COC S OF COZuMEL

More of a chance of wining lotto

[rockyman]

I just looked at the radar. Dolly looks like she jumped right a little even further. If that high stays in the north middle of the gulf then its either a hard left or hard right Sometime tommorrow. Welp guess we will find out soon enough. Will also wait for new Models.

Am seeing some very interesting on the loop

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

Dark spot trying to form in the middle of the pink. is it what i think it is?

I see it as well, but somehow I think it is too soon.

The dark spot is even more pronounced on the GOES zoom satellite

[x-y-no]

I have an odd feeling Florida needs to watch this too just in case.

What do I base this on? Well it went through the Herbert Box...


arggg. The weather channel still has the COC S OF COZuMEL

Umm ... no.

Texas all the way.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Thanks Dixiebreeze. It's always nice to have that handy.

Ed; production and refineries go hand in hand and the refineries will be shut down halting all production. As for the markets, look out tomorrow morning when Dolly emerges into the gulf. My son works for Citgo and they are already in planning stages since it takes a minimum of 3 days to shut down the cooling units safely. And yes, there are production rigs and pipelines going to the refineries located in and across the western gulf of mexico.

Company I work for has onshore oil leases in Nueces County, not far from CRP. We are in three states, but we don't have the capital to be offshore with the big players.

[Derek Ortt]

that's not an eye

however, it was a very cold cloud top. The black on that scale is <-80C

[freport_texas21]

hi guys im new here..i live n freeport texas..should i worry about this or not? all the talk is around mexico..im just curious..thank ya kindly!

[jeff]

B. 19 DEG 20 MIN N
85 DEG 15 MIN W

So the LLC is still on the SW periphery of the convective blob ...

yeh but as wxman57 said I think we should concentrate on the convection and not the weak LLC. Most mets believe the LLC will relocate N.

Current low level center will be gone in 12 hours either it will relocate to the N or the Yucatan will take care of it. New center will re-form to the north under the deep convection. How many times have we seen this in the last several years...Claudette 03, Ernesto 06, ect....

[Honeyko]

Models have basically been on Dolly since mid week last week

Models have a poor record of catching northward jogs occurring when surface lows associated with fast-moving sheared waves are abandoned in favor of new circulation-centers developing under convective bombs when the system finally makes a run toward Hurr.

Unless the current convective center (persistent for twelve hours now) totally collapses, I don't think there's any doubt in my mind that a new center is going to form under it, and Dolly will only scrape the tip of the Yucatan on her way to becoming a very powerful storm.

[jeff]

hi guys im new here..i live n freeport texas..should i worry about this or not? all the talk is around mexico..im just curious..thank ya kindly!

Too early to give the all clear...especially when this looks to be a large circulation.

[stevetampa33614]

Well my predictions are as follows

Ive gotta do laundry and stuff so,


1) Cat:1 Before tommorrow
2) Will Miss or Graze Cancun as I said earlier
3) Will Jog further to the North East before making a west turn but Im not counting a bank east out of the picture (Herbert box)

[Ed Mahmoud]

I just looked at the radar. Dolly looks like she jumped right a little even further. If that high stays in the north middle of the gulf then its either a hard left or hard right Sometime tommorrow. Welp guess we will find out soon enough. Will also wait for new Models.

Am seeing some very interesting on the loop

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

Dark spot trying to form in the middle of the pink. is it what i think it is?

I see it as well, but somehow I think it is too soon.

The dark spot is even more pronounced on the GOES zoom satellite

Any recent microwave or whatever imagery that might confirm or deny.?

I just don't think a 40 to 50 knot storm with a poorly organized LLC would be developing an eye already.

[stevetampa33614]

that's not an eye

however, it was a very cold cloud top. The black on that scale is <-80C

Ya I know its a sign of pretty rapid strengthen and that leads to an eye

[Cape Verde]

I have to admit to being a little bit stunned. Yesterday afternoon, I logged back into this forum and after reading for a couple of hours thought Dolly would certainly become a tropical depression by this afternoon, and maybe a tropical storm by evening although that might be a stretch.

Instead, it was obvious she had become a tropical storm at least an hour before it was announced by the NHC this morning.

So much for the questions about when was the last time a storm skipped the tropical depression designation.

Now, I think the track is uncertain as well. We've spent most of the day arguing where the LLC is, and it's pretty clear now that it's either moving or reforming somewhat northward.

None of these things are good developments for the residents of Texas. My cone of uncertainty has only expanded over the past day, and you can be sure I'm going to pack all my vehicles with fuel tomorrow night. Even though Rita largely missed Houston, we were without gasoline for a week. Unfortunately, many other people will be having the same thought as me.

[gatorcane]

I have an odd feeling Florida needs to watch this too just in case.

What do I base this on? Well it went through the Herbert Box...


arggg. The weather channel still has the COC S OF COZuMEL

Umm ... no.

Texas all the way.

Dolly is not headed to Florida.

[rockyman]

Any recent microwave or whatever imagery that might confirm or deny.?

I just don't think a 40 to 50 knot storm with a poorly organized LLC would be developing an eye already.

It's persisted for over an hour...I think it's the center of the midlevel vortex...the system still appears to be less than perfectly stacked...tilted from SW to NE

[Jagno]

hi guys im new here..i live n freeport texas..should i worry about this or not? all the talk is around mexico..im just curious..thank ya kindly!

YES, please keep a close watch on Dolly and do listen to the professional mets here. Look on the left side of each poster and it will indicate pro met or not. There are some very knowledgeable amatures here as well. Be prepared for the worst and pray for the best every hurricane season from start to finish.

[jrod]

Could this only graze the Yucatan? I am seeing a big wooble to the right and I just do not foresee it spending much if any time over the Yucatan. Tommorrow every bit of free time I have I will be checking out Dolly. I do think we will have a hurricane in the gulf as soon as tommorow, with that I'm going to fill up on my way to work.