ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[Innotech]

theres a very specific part of the Southwest Caribbean that produces those pinhole eye super-hurricanes. Thats where WIlma and Mitch formed with incredibly low pressures and absolutely insane winds. That is a VERY frightening part of the caribbean for formation. Where Dolly is, the conditions arent optimal for this sort of freak formation.

[Aric Dunn]

check out this buoy... SSE winds its already past the buoy ..the buoy is at 19.8n 85w

its a little farther north
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056

[alan1961]

Dolly is almost in the channel now give or take a few hours..it has to take a pretty sharp jog to the left to even hit the tip..a no-no in my opinion..thoughts?

[americanrebel]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

Looking at this loop, looks like the center might be around 21N and 85W.

[gatorcane]

If the convective core misses the Yucatan, and doesn't otherwise weaken overnight (why should it?) I say there's a 50% chance of a Wilma-style needle-prick eye on morning visibles that catches everyone by surprise.

The storm has been loose and badly formed so far, so a pin eye is the exact opposite of what this system has been showing. More likely a straight hurricane if it ever gets favorable conditions.

It's only been badly formed because it did not have great conditions for either circulation or convection. Now it has both, so no reason to not believe it can't form an eye rather quickly. I would tend to agree... eye by mid morning Monday.

Should it miss the Yucatan largely, it would almost definitely mean a better possibility of Dolly becoming a cane in the GOM quicker.

The last NHC discussion though was banking on it staying over the Yucatan overnight tonight. Lets see what their next TWO says about the apparent NW movement.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

this thing is shooting the channel. Forget trying to forecast, its time to nowcast. The models missed this.

"This is going to hit Yucatan...listen to the professionals"

Yes I will listen to Airforcemet and wxman57.

[Praxus]

Looks like she's headed through the middle...

[Nederlander]

I do not think this shoots the channel. Keep in mind that it does not have that much room to track north nor do I think the NHC would miss it that much.

I do respect the NHC, but they arent the holy grail when it comes to forecasting these things... I strongly disagree... I am looking at this thing with my bare eyes and its going to miss the yucatan...

[gatorcane]

I do not think this shoots the channel. Keep in mind that it does not have that much room to track north nor do I think the NHC would miss it that much.

I do respect the NHC, but they arent the holy grail when it comes to forecasting these things... I strongly disagree... I am looking at this thing with my bare eyes and its going to miss the yucatan...

Indeed but keep in mind a ULL is shearing Dolly with a South-North wind. So it may appear she is moving through the channel when she is really moving WNW or NW.

The center is not underneath that deep red blob of convection, but on the SW side of it.

[lrak]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.p ... t=E&tz=CST

Strong south southeast winds!



the ULL may be shearing the system.

[MGC]

For this to miss the Yucatan it would have to move NNW or the center would have to reform way north of where it is now. I give Dolly a 90% probility of crossing the Yucatan. The key will be where it crosses. If it passes south of Cozumel then it will spend a good amout of time over land and considering how poorly organized the LLC is I would not be surprised if it dissipated. Now, if the center reforms futher north and hits near Cancun then Dolly's time over the Yucatan will be brief which will lead to potentially a strong storm......MGC

[Sanibel]

I think Derek needs to come in and teach people that the IR shot is from the upper level and doesn't reflect the surface feature or its direction.

It is very possible the convection is entrained with the local synoptic and moving north while the surface center is tracking towards Yucatan. Later a new center burst will occur closer to the real center.

[HouTXmetro]

I do not think this shoots the channel. Keep in mind that it does not have that much room to track north nor do I think the NHC would miss it that much.

I do respect the NHC, but they arent the holy grail when it comes to forecasting these things... I strongly disagree... I am looking at this thing with my bare eyes and its going to miss the yucatan...

I'm thinking it hit the extreme NE Yuc tip which won't be enough to disrupt organization.

[boca]

Its got to go 280 to make it to the Yucatan,I don't see it either.

[mattpetre]

I do not think this shoots the channel. Keep in mind that it does not have that much room to track north nor do I think the NHC would miss it that much.

I do respect the NHC, but they arent the holy grail when it comes to forecasting these things... I strongly disagree... I am looking at this thing with my bare eyes and its going to miss the yucatan...

Indeed but keep in mind a ULL is shearing Dolly with a South-North wind. So it may appear she is moving through the channel when she is really moving WNW or NW.

Quite possible, and chances are there will be nothing of a closed circulation soon if that is the case, however if the circulation has already moved North then there is no reason to rely on the current cones. I don't really think many people here believe those original NHC cones for Dolly at this point anyway. People should not be complacent if they are to the north of the original tracks.

[gatorcane]

I think Derek needs to come in and teach people that the IR shot is from the upper level and doesn't reflect the surface feature or its direction.

It is very possible the convection is entrained with the local synoptic and moving north while the surface center is tracking towards Yucatan. Later a new center burst will occur closer to the real center.

I'm not Derek but that is what I said above. NHC should confirm this shortly to end speculation.

[Chacor]

From about 2.5 hours ago:

URNT12 KWBC 210004
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 20/2354Z
B. 19 DEG 20 MIN N
85 DEG 15 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1502 M
D. 45 KT
E. 030 DEG 70 NM
F. 123 DEG 54 KT
G. 035 DEG 60 NM
H. 1007 MB
I. 20 C/1537 M
J. 20 C/1538 M
K. 14 C/27 C
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134/8
O. 1/10 NM
P. NOAA3 0804A DOLLY OB 14 AL042008
MAX FLT LVL WIND 54 KT NE QUAD 2337Z.
SFC PRESS FM DROPSONDE.

That's a centre fix of 19.33N 85.25W.

[Aric Dunn]

say thankyou..





the rough center..
[img]

[Steve]

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/gulfir.html

I don't ever do anything by the IR's but sometimes at night, that's all you have. Interesting if you run this loop and then go to the visible loop (ssd) where the IR overlays about halfway through (as of now). Don't think the storm is necessarily moving N or NNW like the mid level energy seems to be doing, but there also seems to be a bend in the overall package a little back to the WNW - not sure if that portends a leveling out in the near term or not. Interesting storm for sure that easily could catch a lot of people off guard without as much time as we're used to having.

Steve

[ROCK]

say thankyou..





the rough center..
[img]

good find...