ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[HouTXmetro]

From about 2.5 hours ago:

URNT12 KWBC 210004
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 20/2354Z
B. 19 DEG 20 MIN N
85 DEG 15 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1502 M
D. 45 KT
E. 030 DEG 70 NM
F. 123 DEG 54 KT
G. 035 DEG 60 NM
H. 1007 MB
I. 20 C/1537 M
J. 20 C/1538 M
K. 14 C/27 C
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134/8
O. 1/10 NM
P. NOAA3 0804A DOLLY OB 14 AL042008
MAX FLT LVL WIND 54 KT NE QUAD 2337Z.
SFC PRESS FM DROPSONDE.

That's a centre fix of 19.33N 85.25W.

so basically the center hasn't reformed?

[Aric Dunn]

not a find... i had to make that loop

[ColdFusion]

say thankyou..

Nice job!

[mattpetre]

I think Derek needs to come in and teach people that the IR shot is from the upper level and doesn't reflect the surface feature or its direction.

It is very possible the convection is entrained with the local synoptic and moving north while the surface center is tracking towards Yucatan. Later a new center burst will occur closer to the real center.

Understood, but when this does not occur and the burst is right at the tip of the Yucatan later tonight; can a few of us come in (wherever that is) and teach a class on common sense in the face of adversity? I think it's getting more obvious that this is not anywhere near the original forecast track. This storm is entirely relocating closer to the channel, and yes it may not have a LLC at all sometimes, but the ghost of one that may hit the Yucatan will not matter in the end. I'm willing to bet on that. If this is a BOC storm then you can come to my house and flog me next Saturday.

[johngaltfla]

Thank you Aric. If anything she skirts Cozumel and the northern tip of the Yucatan. Not far off the track but definitely north of it.

[Sanibel]

That radar strongly suggests more north and less land contact with Yucatan.

[Derek Ortt]

I think the center is a bit south of where the circle is drawn. A little south also matches up quite well with nighttime visible imagery

[Portastorm]

Yeah that Cancun radar loop suggest a west-northwest movement.

[Aric Dunn]

key thing to note.. the southern part of the circulation is still convection free.

[Dean4Storms]

We certainly have a tilted system but I'm not so sure a new LLC couldn't form up under the deeper convection and that LLC just miss the Yuc. I thought the LLC was rather borad to begin with and with what we see on IR a new forming center more NNE is certainly possible, it wouldn't be the first time.

I think TX is in for this one and I wouldn't be surprised to see the upper TX coast in on it before all is said and done as Dolly's Mid level center is showing more erosion in that ridge than what the models indicated by what we are seeing on IR.

[Honeyko]

If the convective core misses the Yucatan, and doesn't otherwise weaken overnight (why should it?) I say there's a 50% chance of a Wilma-style needle-prick eye on morning visibles that catches everyone by surprise.

eh, the dynamic environment doesn't really support a pinhole eye attm.

What aspect doesn't support it? (I mean, in the sense that it grossly doesn't support, given that no model ever actually predicts them.)

[mattpetre]

I do believe that in the radar images you can see a little bit of the NE relocation occuring. Eyes become deceiving this time of night though.

[MGC]

If anyone can spot a circulation it is Dean....MGC

[weatherSnoop]

The last vortex shows 1007. If I am reading correctly, the pressures are lower near 20.+ and 85. If I am not reading correctly, please let me know

[Aric Dunn]

Dolly does Texas...?

lol thats funny

[Steve]

Early operational 00z still focuses in on the lower TX/upper Mex coast. Will be interesting to see if this changes at all as there isn't a big spread at all IMHO.

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early2.png

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

I've been asleep since the last ice/snow/ crushing 1899 records freeze threats for Texas went down the tubes in January. I guess I need to get with what's going on with Dolly.

Models look all over the place. Scary for us that have to prepare for others and then ourselves.

[Chacor]

021030 2028N 08545W 6649 03567 0065 +081 +042 260025 029 025 005 00
021100 2026N 08546W 6650 03566 0062 +083 +035 272022 023 024 002 00
021130 2025N 08547W 6651 03566 0065 +082 +034 281016 019 023 000 00
021200 2023N 08549W 6648 03569 0061 +085 +035 274009 012 022 000 00

center above 20N?

If that is right the centre is about a whole degree north of the 2354Z VDM, nearer 20.5N.

[Sanibel]

I don't think the true center is in range of that radar. If my hunch is right you'll see it later tonight. So the track may not be as north as you think.

[weatherSnoop]

obs 37 has some 005...readings