South Indian Ocean: Filling Depression ex.Kamba (TC 23S)

[HURAKAN]

10/0300 UTC 16.2S 79.4E T5.0/5.0 KAMBA -- South Indian Ocean

Continues to intensify.

[G.B.]

It's very impressive.

Do you know why NRL aren't updating

[G.B.]

[G.B.]

90kts on NRL

[G.B.]

ZCZC 836
WTIO30 FMEE 100600
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 14/13/20072008
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (KAMBA)
2.A POSITION 2008/03/10 AT 0600 UTC :
16.8S / 78.8E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT
DEGREES EAST)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/4.5 /D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 965 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 65 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 200 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 150
50 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 040
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1100
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/03/10 18 UTC: 18.9S/77.7E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
24H: 2008/03/11 06 UTC: 21.1S/76.8E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
36H: 2008/03/11 18 UTC: 23.7S/76.5E, MAX WIND=045KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
48H: 2008/03/12 06 UTC: 25.1S/76.0E, MAX WIND=035KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2008/03/12 18 UTC: 27.0S/74.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2008/03/13 06 UTC: 28.6S/73.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=4.5-
LAST MICROWAVE DATA SSMI 10/0118Z AND 10/0232Z SHOW A BANDING EYE
WICH IS
STARTING TO BE VISIBLE ON CLASSICAL IMAGERY (EIR AND VISIBLE).
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD GENERALLY TRACK ON THE NORTHWESTERN THEN WESTERN
EDGE
OF A STRONG AND STATIONARY UPPER LEVER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BEYOND TAU
24,
SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING WINDSHEAR AND LOWER
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT.
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST
SCENARIO.=
NNNN

[Crostorm]

[Crostorm]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 10 MAR 2008 Time : 073000 UTC
Lat : 17:10:35 S Lon : 79:03:42 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.9 / 979.7mb/ 63.0kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.9 3.9 4.2 6.4

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.1mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -34.1C Cloud Region Temp : -76.7C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

[HURAKAN]

Looking great!

[HURAKAN]

10/0830 UTC 17.4S 78.8E T6.0/6.0 KAMBA -- South Indian Ocean

6 115 KTS 132 MPH 927 mb 4 (114-135 KTS)

[Chacor]

115 kts seems a bit generous. I'd say no more than 85 kt 10-min.

[HURAKAN]

The "K" in Kamba doesn't represent an strikeout!!!

[HURAKAN]

Great looking cyclone!

[Chacor]

Eye has cleared out now and has definitely strengthened quite a bit in the last few hours. Probably about 90 or 95 kt 10-min. We'll see what Meteo France goes with.

[HURAKAN]

Kamba seems to be making a last stand since weakening is forecasted for the next 24 hours. In the image it looks pretty cool, thus I made it my avatar!

[gigabyte89]

[Chacor]

100 kts Intense TC forecasted. 90 kts now.

319
WTIO30 FMEE 101200

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 15/13/20072008
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (KAMBA)

2.A POSITION 2008/03/10 AT 1200 UTC :
18.2S / 78.5E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL FIVE
DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.5/5.5 /D 1.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 940 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 90 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 250 SE: 280 SO: 280 NO: 200
50 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 100

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/03/11 00 UTC: 19.7S/78.1E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
24H: 2008/03/11 12 UTC: 22.2S/77.7E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
36H: 2008/03/12 00 UTC: 24.5S/77.5E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
48H: 2008/03/12 12 UTC: 26.6S/76.9E, MAX WIND=050KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2008/03/13 00 UTC: 28.5S/75.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2008/03/13 12 UTC: 30.4S/73.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=5.5+.

VERY RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM DURING THE 6 LAST HOURS, WITH A
25NM DIAMETER EYE.

THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK ON THE NORTHWESTERN THEN WESTERN EDGE OF A STRONG
AND STATIONARY UPPER LEVER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.

BEYOND TAU 24, SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING
NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT.

AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST SCENARIO.

[HURAKAN]

Night time arriving.

[gigabyte89]

Its a beautiful cyclone... so sad it will begin to weaken!

[gigabyte89]

It's now Intense Tropical Cyclone.

126 kt, 235 km/h max gusts according to meteo france! Itensified very quickly. Eye diameter of 45 km.

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 666
WTIO30 FMEE 101200
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 15/13/20072008
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (KAMBA)
2.A POSITION 2008/03/10 AT 1200 UTC :
18.2S / 78.5E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL FIVE
DEGREES EAST)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.5/5.5 /D 1.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 940 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 90 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 250 SE: 280 SO: 280 NO: 200
50 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 100
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/03/11 00 UTC: 19.7S/78.1E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP.
CYCL..
24H: 2008/03/11 12 UTC: 22.2S/77.7E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
36H: 2008/03/12 00 UTC: 24.5S/77.5E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
48H: 2008/03/12 12 UTC: 26.6S/76.9E, MAX WIND=050KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2008/03/13 00 UTC: 28.5S/75.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2008/03/13 12 UTC: 30.4S/73.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=5.5+.
VERY RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM DURING THE 6 LAST HOURS,
WITH A
25NM DIAMETER EYE.
THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK ON THE NORTHWESTERN THEN WESTERN EDGE OF A
STRONG
AND STATIONARY UPPER LEVER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
BEYOND TAU 24, SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING
NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT.
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST
SCENARIO.=
NNNN