South Indian Ocean:Tropical Depression Ex-Pancho （潘乔 TC26S)

[G.B.]

074
wtxs31 pgtw 270900
msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/tropical cyclone warning//
rmks/
1. Tropical cyclone 26s (pancho) warning nr 007
01 active tropical cyclone in southio
Max sustained winds based on one-minute average
---
warning position:
270600z --- near 20.5s 106.3e
movement past six hours - 165 degrees at 13 kts
position accurate to within 040 nm
position based on eye fixed by satellite
present wind distribution:
Max sustained winds - 095 kt, gusts 115 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
radius of 064 kt winds - 040 nm northeast quadrant
040 nm southeast quadrant
040 nm southwest quadrant
040 nm northwest quadrant
radius of 050 kt winds - 060 nm northeast quadrant
065 nm southeast quadrant
065 nm southwest quadrant
060 nm northwest quadrant
radius of 034 kt winds - 100 nm northeast quadrant
110 nm southeast quadrant
105 nm southwest quadrant
095 nm northwest quadrant
repeat posit: 20.5s 106.3e
---
forecasts:
12 hrs, valid at:
271800z --- 22.8s 107.0e
Max sustained winds - 080 kt, gusts 100 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
radius of 064 kt winds - 030 nm northeast quadrant
030 nm southeast quadrant
030 nm southwest quadrant
030 nm northwest quadrant
radius of 050 kt winds - 050 nm northeast quadrant
055 nm southeast quadrant
055 nm southwest quadrant
050 nm northwest quadrant
radius of 034 kt winds - 085 nm northeast quadrant
100 nm southeast quadrant
090 nm southwest quadrant
080 nm northwest quadrant
vector to 24 hr posit: 170 deg/ 10 kts
---
24 hrs, valid at:
280600z --- 24.7s 107.3e
Max sustained winds - 065 kt, gusts 080 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
radius of 050 kt winds - 040 nm northeast quadrant
045 nm southeast quadrant
045 nm southwest quadrant
040 nm northwest quadrant
radius of 034 kt winds - 075 nm northeast quadrant
090 nm southeast quadrant
080 nm southwest quadrant
075 nm northwest quadrant
vector to 36 hr posit: 175 deg/ 07 kts
---
36 hrs, valid at:
281800z --- 26.1s 107.4e
Max sustained winds - 050 kt, gusts 065 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
radius of 034 kt winds - 070 nm northeast quadrant
085 nm southeast quadrant
075 nm southwest quadrant
070 nm northwest quadrant
vector to 48 hr posit: 185 deg/ 07 kts
---
extended outlook:
48 hrs, valid at:
290600z --- 27.5s 107.2e
Max sustained winds - 040 kt, gusts 050 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
becoming extratropical
radius of 034 kt winds - 065 nm northeast quadrant
075 nm southeast quadrant
070 nm southwest quadrant
065 nm northwest quadrant
---
remarks:
270900z position near 21.1s 106.5e.
Tropical cyclone (tc) 26s (pancho) located approximately 445 nm
west of Learmonth, Australia, has tracked south-southeastward
at 13 knots over the past 06 hours. The storm has intensified
over the past 12 hours and continues to display a ragged, 18 nm
diameter eye feature. However, the storm has also shown some
signs of weakening over the past few hours in response to
increasing northwesterly vertical wind shear. Tc 26s is tracking
poleward in the gradient between an extensive steering ridge
located to the east of the storm and an approaching mid-latitude
trough to the southwest. This general motion is expected to
continue through the forecast period, with some slowing occuring
after tau 24 due to interaction between the storm cirulation and
the approaching mid-latitude cyclone. The storm will weaken
significantly during the next 48 hours as the flow associated
with the approaching trough introduces increasing vertical wind
shear and drier, subsident air from upper levels. This inter-
action will also induce the first stage of extratropical
transition by tau 48. The track forecast is close to both the
previous forecast and the consensus of the available dynamical
model aids. Intensity forecast values have been reduced slightly,
but are close to the statistical model consensus. Maximum
significant wave height at 270600z is 27 feet. Next warnings at
272100z and 280900z.//

[G.B.]

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

Very small eye.

[G.B.]

IDW27300
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL SUMMARY: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1240 UTC 27/03/2008
Name: Pancho
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 21.7S
Longitude: 106.8E
Location Accuracy: within 25 nm (46 km)
Movement Towards: south southeast (161 deg)
Speed of Movement: 13 knots (24 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 90 knots (165 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 125 knots (230 km/h)
Central Pressure: 938 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 140 nm (260 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 160 nm (295 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 150 nm (280 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 140 nm (260 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 55 nm (100 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 55 nm (100 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 55 nm (100 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 55 nm (100 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds: 30 nm (55 km)
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T5.5/5.5/S0.0/12HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 280 nm (520 km)
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+12: 28/0000: 24.2S 107.6E: 055 (100): 075 (140): 958
+24: 28/1200: 26.0S 107.7E: 080 (150): 055 (100): 974
+36: 29/0000: 27.3S 107.1E: 105 (195): 045 (085): 986
+48: 29/1200: 28.7S 106.2E: 140 (260): 040 (075): 990
REMARKS:
Remarkably Pancho intensified for a period between 06z and 12z with DT of 6.0, but has since weakened.

Dvorak: FT=5.5 based on IR eye pattern surrounding shade Black with no eye adjustment.

After enjoying favourable environmental conditions of low shear and good upper level outflow,
Pancho is now moving rapidly towards a region of increasing shear and cooler sea surface temperatures (SSTs) which should result in rapid weakening in the next 48 hours as it continues to move generally south.

The range of model guidance favour a south to southeasterly track in the next 24 hours and then a south southwest track as the system becomes extra-tropical, influenced by an amplifying upper level low to the southwest.

Gales are likely to continue in southern quadrants on Sunday and Monday owing to a strong pressure gradient between the extra-tropical low and a strong high further to the south.
Notes:
This product is issued every six hours; the Cyclone Advices (Watches and Warnings) are
usually issued more frequently and contain more useful information for coastal communities.

Time Conversion from UTC to local:
WST add 8 hrs (Add another hour for daylight saving)
CST add 9 hrs 30 min
EST add 10 hrs (Add another hour for daylight saving)
==
he next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 27/1900 UTC by Perth TCWC.

[HURAKAN]

Begins to weaken.

[G.B.]

Going down fast

[G.B.]

Still an Aussie Cat 3 but probably not for much longer



IDW27300
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL SUMMARY: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0657 UTC 28/03/2008
Name: Pancho
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 24.0S
Longitude: 108.7E
Location Accuracy: within 25 nm (46 km)
Movement Towards: southeast (137 deg)
Speed of Movement: 9 knots (16 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 70 knots (130 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 100 knots (185 km/h)
Central Pressure: 962 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 80 nm (150 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 130 nm (240 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 130 nm (240 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 80 nm (150 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds: 30 nm (55 km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 25 nm (46 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.0/4.5/W1.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 200 nm (370 km)
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+12: 28/1800: 25.1S 109.2E: 055 (100): 055 (100): 972
+24: 29/0600: 26.0S 108.8E: 085 (155): 040 (075): 988
+36: 29/1800: 27.2S 108.5E: 115 (215): 040 (075): 990
+48: 30/0600: 28.9S 108.8E: 145 (270): 040 (075): 994
REMARKS:
Pancho is weakening under the influence of strong vertical shear and cooler SSTs.
Weakening is expected to be quite rapid. The track is expected to shift south southwesterly as
the system weakens and is steered by lower levels.

The low level remains of Pancho are expected to interact with a mid to upper level cold cored
low late in the weekend. The strong pressure gradient between the resulting low and the high
pressure system to the south will result in continuing gales over marine areas south of 30S in
the vicinity 110E.

Dvorak DT numbers vary between 3.5 and 5.0 depending on scene type, with embedded
centre as usual giving the highest DT. The 24h weakening trend to 0300 UTC is very strong.
The FT is based on MET, with CI held 0.5 higher than FT.

Notes:
This product is issued every six hours; the Cyclone Advices (Watches and Warnings) are
usually issued more frequently and contain more useful information for coastal communities.

Time Conversion from UTC to local:
WST add 8 hrs (Add another hour for daylight saving)
CST add 9 hrs 30 min
EST add 10 hrs (Add another hour for daylight saving)
==
he next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 28/1300 UTC by Perth TCWC.

[HURAKAN]

Going down faster than Governor Splitzer's political career!!!

[G.B.]

IDW27300
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL SUMMARY: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1245 UTC 28/03/2008
Name: Pancho
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 25.1S
Longitude: 109.4E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm (55 km)
Movement Towards: south southeast (151 deg)
Speed of Movement: 10 knots (19 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 60 knots (110 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 85 knots (155 km/h)
Central Pressure: 972 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 130 nm (240 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 130 nm (240 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 25 nm (46 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/4.0/W1.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 200 nm (370 km)
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+12: 29/0000: 26.0S 109.4E: 060 (110): 045 (085): 986
+24: 29/1200: 27.0S 109.5E: 100 (185): 040 (075): 990
REMARKS:
Pancho is weakening under the influence of strong vertical shear and cooler SSTs.
Weakening is expected to be quite rapid. The track is expected to shift more southerly
in the next 6 to 12 hours the system weakens and is steered by lower levels.

The low level remains of Pancho are expected to interact with a mid to upper level cold cored
low late in the weekend. The strong pressure gradient between the resulting low and the high
pressure system to the south will result in continuing gales over marine areas south of 30S in
the vicinity 110E.

Dvorak DT of 3.0 based on shear pattern. The 24h weakening trend to 1200 UTC is very strong. The FT is based on MET, with CI held 0.5 higher than FT.

Notes:
This product is issued every six hours; the Cyclone Advices (Watches and Warnings) are
usually issued more frequently and contain more useful information for coastal communities.

Time Conversion from UTC to local:
WST add 8 hrs (Add another hour for daylight saving)
CST add 9 hrs 30 min
EST add 10 hrs (Add another hour for daylight saving)
==
he next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 28/1900 UTC by Perth TCWC