WPAC: STS Halong (05W, PAGASA: Cosme)

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HURAKAN
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Re: Re:

#61 Postby HURAKAN » Sat May 17, 2008 5:12 am

Ed Mahmoud wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:17/0230 UTC 15.7N 118.9E T4.0/4.0 HALONG -- West Pacific Ocean

A typhoon according to Dvorak.


Is that from CIMMS?


17/0830 UTC 16.0N 119.5E T4.5/4.5 HALONG -- West Pacific Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html
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#62 Postby HURAKAN » Sat May 17, 2008 5:19 am

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Very small cyclone. We're so used to seeing those lsrge monsters in the WPAC but Halong is the complete opposite.
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#63 Postby HURAKAN » Sat May 17, 2008 5:43 am

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Landfall.
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#64 Postby Chacor » Sat May 17, 2008 6:24 am

JTWC did upgrade to a typhoon at 06z.
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#65 Postby HURAKAN » Sat May 17, 2008 8:27 am

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Very heavy rainfall.
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#66 Postby Chacor » Sat May 17, 2008 8:37 am

127
WTPQ21 RJTD 171200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0804 HALONG (0804)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 171200UTC 16.3N 120.1E GOOD
MOVE ENE 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 220NM
FORECAST
24HF 181200UTC 20.4N 124.3E 100NM 70%
MOVE NE 15KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 191200UTC 25.6N 130.4E 170NM 70%
MOVE NE 19KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 201200UTC 34.2N 141.0E 400NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =
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#67 Postby HURAKAN » Sat May 17, 2008 10:37 am

Image

Image

WTPN32 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 05W (HALONG) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 16.4N 120.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4N 120.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 18.2N 121.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 19.9N 123.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 22.2N 126.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 25.7N 129.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 37 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 37.6N 140.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 16.9N 120.6E.
TYPHOON (TY) 05W (HALONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 115 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED
NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE
OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS WARNING. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
171200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z, 180300Z,
180900Z AND 181500Z.
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#68 Postby HURAKAN » Sat May 17, 2008 11:01 am

17/1430 UTC 16.4N 120.5E OVERLAND HALONG -- West Pacific Ocean

Image

Image
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#69 Postby HURAKAN » Sat May 17, 2008 1:23 pm

Image

Obviously, weakening over land.
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#70 Postby HURAKAN » Sat May 17, 2008 3:37 pm

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Halong is learning the hard way that you don't mess with Luzon!
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#71 Postby KWT » Sat May 17, 2008 4:06 pm

Yep the system seems to have weakened quite a lot over the last 6hrs overland, taking a real hammering isn't it!
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#72 Postby HURAKAN » Sat May 17, 2008 5:10 pm

Image

Visible images about to commence.
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#73 Postby HURAKAN » Sat May 17, 2008 6:04 pm

17/2030 UTC 12.4N 125.3E OVERLAND HALONG -- West Pacific Ocean
17/1430 UTC 16.4N 120.5E OVERLAND HALONG -- West Pacific Ocean

That's a drop!!! An error, of course.

Image
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Re: WPAC: STS Halong (05W, PAGASA: Cosme) Luzon

#74 Postby Sanibel » Sat May 17, 2008 8:57 pm

Cool. A lee-side storm.
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Re:

#75 Postby Chacor » Sat May 17, 2008 9:10 pm

HURAKAN wrote:17/2030 UTC 12.4N 125.3E OVERLAND HALONG -- West Pacific Ocean
17/1430 UTC 16.4N 120.5E OVERLAND HALONG -- West Pacific Ocean

That's a drop!!! An error, of course.


Not necessarily, they could just be having difficulty locating the LLC over land.
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Re: Re:

#76 Postby HURAKAN » Sat May 17, 2008 9:40 pm

Chacor wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:17/2030 UTC 12.4N 125.3E OVERLAND HALONG -- West Pacific Ocean
17/1430 UTC 16.4N 120.5E OVERLAND HALONG -- West Pacific Ocean

That's a drop!!! An error, of course.


Not necessarily, they could just be having difficulty locating the LLC over land.


Image
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Re: WPAC: STS Halong (05W, PAGASA: Cosme) Luzon

#77 Postby HURAKAN » Sat May 17, 2008 9:43 pm

VERY BAD SHAPE. LUZON ACCOUNTED RESPONSIBLE.

Image

Image

WTPN32 PGTW 180300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (HALONG) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 17.6N 121.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6N 121.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 19.2N 123.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 21.4N 126.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 24.8N 129.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 29.1N 133.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 34 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 40.0N 143.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 18.0N 122.3E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (HALONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 185 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180900Z,
181500Z, 182100Z AND 190300Z.
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#78 Postby Chacor » Sat May 17, 2008 10:26 pm

138
WTPQ21 RJTD 180000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0804 HALONG (0804) DOWNGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 180000UTC 17.2N 121.5E GOOD
MOVE NE 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 160NM
FORECAST
24HF 190000UTC 20.3N 125.2E 100NM 70%
MOVE NE 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 200000UTC 26.5N 133.0E 170NM 70%
MOVE NE 24KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 210000UTC 37.5N 145.0E 400NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =
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#79 Postby HURAKAN » Sat May 17, 2008 10:38 pm

18/0230 UTC 18.1N 123.0E T2.5/2.5 HALONG -- West Pacific Ocean

Image

Convection redeveloping.
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#80 Postby Chacor » Sat May 17, 2008 11:02 pm

685
WTPQ21 RJTD 180300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0804 HALONG (0804)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 180300UTC 17.7N 122.3E GOOD
MOVE NE 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 160NM
FORECAST
24HF 190300UTC 21.0N 126.2E 100NM 70%
MOVE NE 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 200000UTC 26.5N 133.0E 170NM 70%
MOVE NE 24KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 210000UTC 37.5N 145.0E 400NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =
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