ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[cheezyWXguy]

This doesn't look very good right now.

I dont know....looks pretty good to me. The convection is not concentrated, but I do see some turning and sporadic deep convection...this thing should be on its way.

[Gustywind]

Intial forecast landfalls are usually highly inaccurate. If it become Cristobol,its more likely to make landfall anywhere from the tip of Texas to the East coast

I understand, I just want to get a general idea of how many days away is it from CONUS.

I don't think there is any need to speculate about the CONUS as the CONUS is way upstream at this point and we don't even have a depression yet. In addition the immediate need is to watch the islands of the Caribbean if it even develops.

Absolutely Gatorcane you're right good post let's see what pan's out but in this location it's always suspicious for us in the islands.

[Category 5]

I think this has by far a better chance of developing.

1# Lots of convection
2# Low shear

The ship model forecast strengthing to a point where you can be some what safe to assume it may have a chance of developing. It will likley be a low rider.

People you know those ship of the LINE ships of old. Remember how when the doors opened up on the sides and the cannons started to come out. I clearly see those cannons coming out right now. Maybe not as intense of 2004, but 1998,99 or 96 is looking possible.

Maybe it would be a good idea to buy homes that can be moved from the coast to inland?

If this thing ends up getting going with this system, I do wonder if we are looking at another 2005-like season as far as #systems. To have this much activity in July is pretty unusual especially where systems are forming (in the MDR region of the Atlantic basin).

Typically the area where Bertha developed and 94L are not favorable areas of development until later in August.

2005 was ludicrous, I'd put 0 thought into that.

[Stratosphere747]

I don't think there is any need to speculate about the CONUS as the CONUS is way upstream at this point and we don't even have a depression yet. In addition the immediate need is to watch the islands of the Caribbean if it even develops.

Then why mention the 'Hebert Box' in the models thread?

[CrazyC83]

I think this has by far a better chance of developing.

1# Lots of convection
2# Low shear

The ship model forecast strengthing to a point where you can be some what safe to assume it may have a chance of developing. It will likley be a low rider.

People you know those ship of the LINE ships of old. Remember how when the doors opened up on the sides and the cannons started to come out. I clearly see those cannons coming out right now. Maybe not as intense of 2004, but 1998,99 or 96 is looking possible.

Maybe it would be a good idea to buy homes that can be moved from the coast to inland?

If this thing ends up getting going with this system, I do wonder if we are looking at another 2005-like season as far as #systems. To have this much activity in July is pretty unusual especially where systems are forming (in the MDR region of the Atlantic basin).

Typically the area where Bertha developed and 94L are not favorable areas of development until later in August.

2005 was ludicrous, I'd put 0 thought into that.

At this point in 2005, we had 5 storms, 3 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes.

[Category 5]

Intial forecast landfalls are usually highly inaccurate. If it become Cristobol,its more likely to make landfall anywhere from the tip of Texas to the East coast

I understand, I just want to get a general idea of how many days away is it from CONUS.

I don't think there is any need to speculate about the CONUS as the CONUS is way upstream at this point and we don't even have a depression yet. In addition the immediate need is to watch the islands of the Caribbean if it even develops.

Absolutely. IF it develops it's too far off to know, and we should tend to our friends in the Caribbean who would likely be first in line.

[Category 5]

[
At this point in 2005, we had 5 storms, 3 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes.

Yeah. We're at 2/1/1 now and if this develops I'd consider this to be a very fast start, and we'd be ON PACE (nothings for sure) for a very active season.

2005 shouldn't be mentioned in climatology or comparisons . It's just in a class of its own.

[canetracker]

Absolutely. IF it develops it's too far off to know, and we should tend to our friends in the Caribbean who would likely be first in line.

I second that thought!

[Cyclone1]

I'm always the last to know about these Invests.

This one looks like it has massive potential. I'll jump on the tropical depression soon bandwagon.

[cheezyWXguy]

I don't think there is any need to speculate about the CONUS as the CONUS is way upstream at this point and we don't even have a depression yet. In addition the immediate need is to watch the islands of the Caribbean if it even develops.

Then why mention the 'Hebert Box' in the models thread?

because, he was talking about the GFS, which brought a developed tropical cyclone into the Hebert box.

[bvigal]

Yes, in eastern Caribbean can't afford to ignore this, it is potentially 3 days from a lot of people on their vacations on rented boats! I'd LOVE to ignore it for a few days more... oh well.
Yesterday was turnover day where a lot of people flew in and today the will head out on their 'bareboats' for a week. The logistics of just trying to call boats in, when the occupants aren't listening to the radio, are partying aboard, ashore, or in the water, and can be in any of dozens of places, is sobering. You couldn't pay me enough money to be a base manager of a charter company, fully booked through the entire month of July, as most of them are!

[cycloneye]

[
At this point in 2005, we had 5 storms, 3 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes.

Yeah. We're at 2/1/1 now and if this develops I'd consider this to be a very fast start, and we'd be ON PACE (nothings for sure) for a very active season.

2005 shouldn't be mentioned in climatology or comparisons . It's just in a class of its own.

And already not in mid July yet,the ACE for the young 2008 season is at 19.7.

[bvigal]

p.s. they just put floater 2 online at SSD

[Blown Away]

If 94L develops within the next 36 hours I would think it would move WNW, I think Bertha will leave weakness in the ridge to allow this WNW movement towards the NE Caribbean, from there Bertha may move out and the ridge builds back in and moves 94L towards the CONUS or Bertha may create enough weakness to recurve 94L. If 94L does not develop and remains a shallow system then I would think a more southern track through the Caribbean would be likely. If 94L becomes Cristobal in the next 36 hours I think it will be difficult to miss a landfall at least in the Islands.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer: This forecast is just the opinion of the poster.

[Stratosphere747]

I don't think there is any need to speculate about the CONUS as the CONUS is way upstream at this point and we don't even have a depression yet. In addition the immediate need is to watch the islands of the Caribbean if it even develops.

Then why mention the 'Hebert Box' in the models thread?

because, he was talking about the GFS, which brought a developed tropical cyclone into the Hebert box.

You missed my point. No worries....

[cycloneye]

[cheezyWXguy]

If 94L develops within the next 36 hours I would think it would move WNW, I think Bertha will leave weakness in the ridge to allow this WNW movement towards the NE Caribbean, from there Bertha may move out and the ridge builds back in and moves 94L towards the CONUS or Bertha may create enough weakness to recurve 94L. If 94L does not develop and remains a shallow system then I would think a more southern track through the Caribbean would be likely. If 94L becomes Cristobal in the next 36 hours I think it will be difficult to miss a landfall at least in the Islands.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer: This forecast is just the opinion of the poster.

Yeah I see where youre coming from, getting back up from the GFS, but the GFS shows it only briefly as a weak surface low. The wave it really develops is about 10-15 degrees east of this wave, however, i do not see anything that would hint to such a development. Therefore, IMO, I think it will track wnw through the whole caribbean, and whatever it does after that, I have no idea.

[hawkeh]

I'm definitely watching this one since its at such a low latitude.

[Aric Dunn]

not surprised its an invest today.. all the signs were there yesterday of classic setup for this type of system..

[kpost]