BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 32A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
200 AM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008
...IKE STILL MOVING OVER WATER SOUTH OF CENTRAL CUBA...WINDS
INCREASING OVER WESTERN CUBA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...
MATANZAS...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN
BRAC.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND CAYMAN.
INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF IKE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED BY
CUBAN AND KEY WEST RADARS NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.5
WEST JUST SOUTH OF THE ZAPATA PENINSULA AND ABOUT 95 MILES...150
KM...SOUTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL CROSS WESTERN CUBA LATER TODAY AND
MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE AS LONG AS THE CENTER REMAINS
OVER THE WATERS TO THE SOUTH OF CUBA. STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY WHEN
IKE MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
CURRENTLY APPROACHING IKE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM. THE METEOROLOGICAL CENTER IN CASABLANCA HAVANA JUST
REPORTED A WIND GUST TO NEAR 62 MPH...100 KM/HR. SAND KEY
AUTOMATIC STATION JUST SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST RECENTLY REPORTED
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH...80 KM/HR AND A GUST OF 67 MPH...107
KM/HR.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 967 MB...28.56 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS EAST OF IKE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF CUBA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET...ALONG WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THESE WAVES COULD GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP
CURRENTS.
IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
OVER CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER JAMAICA...WITH 2
TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY.
REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...21.9 N...81.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
ATL IKE: HPC Advisories
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Re: ATL IKE: Advisories
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HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 AM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008
...HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS REPORTED IN HAVANA...
AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED THE
HURRICANE WARNINGS EAST OF THE PROVINCE OF MATANZAS.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN
BRAC.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND CAYMAN.
INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF IKE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED BY
RADAR AND A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 82.1 WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES...135 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
HAVANA CUBA.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TODAY. ON THIS TRACK...IKE
IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND
SOUTH COAST OF HAVANA PROVINCE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND
THEN MOVE OVER WESTERN CUBA LATER TODAY. IKE IS EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE IKE MOVES OVER WESTERN CUBA
TODAY. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TO OCCUR WHEN IKE
REACHES THE GULF OF MEXICO.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195
MILES...315 KM. THE CUBAN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE AT CASABLANCA
HAVANA RECENTLY MEASURED A WIND GUST OF 75 MPH...120 KM/HR. KEY
WEST RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 54 MPH...87 KM/HR.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE WAS 965
MB...28.50 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS EAST OF IKE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF CUBA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET...ALONG WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THESE WAVES COULD GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP
CURRENTS.
IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
OVER CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE FLORIDA KEYS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY.
REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...22.0 N...82.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 AM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE
THAT IKE HAS A LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS BUT THE
INNER CORE OR EYE IS VERY SMALL BUT WELL DEFINED...ABOUT 6 TO 8 NM.
THE EYE CAN BE SEEN FROM CUBAN AND KEY WEST RADARS. ALTHOUGH THE
MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS BEEN AROUND 963-965 MB...THE MAXIMUM
FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS MEASURED SO FAR WERE ONLY 69 KNOTS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 70 KNOTS ASSUMING THAT THE PLANE HAS NOT
SAMPLED THE ENTIRE CIRCULATION...BUT THIS VALUE APPEARS QUITE
GENEROUS AT THIS TIME. ON THE OTHER HAND...GIVEN THE WELL DEFINED
STRUCTURE ON RADAR AND SATELLITE AND THE FACT THAT IKE HAS SEVERAL
MORE HOURS OVER THE VERY WARM WATERS SOUTH OF CUBA...THE WINDS
WINDS COULD INCREASE SOME NEAR THE CORE BEFORE MOVING OVER WESTERN
CUBA. ONCE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...IKE WILL
HAVE PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT IS
CONDUCIVE...AND THE HURRICANE WILL LIKELY MOVE OVER SEVERAL AREAS
OF HIGH HEAT CONTENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAKES IKE A CATEGORY 3
HURRICANE AND THIS VALUE IS IN BETWEEN THE DYNAMICAL AND
STATISTICAL MODELS.
FIXES FROM CUBAN AND KEY WEST RADARS AS WILL AS PENETRATIONS FROM A
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE SMALL EYE OF IKE IS MOVING
WESTWARD OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS...VERY CLOSE TO THE ZAPATA
PENINSULA ON THE SOUTH COAST OF WESTERN CUBA. A GENERAL WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK BETWEEN THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND THE SOUTH
COAST OF HAVANA PROVINCE SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. THEN...THE CENTER SHOULD CROSS WESTERN CUBA LATER TODAY.
UNFORTUNATELY... IKE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY NEAR TO WHERE
HURRICANE GUSTAV CROSSED CUBA A WEEK OR SO AGO. THE STEERING PATTERN
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED LITTLE AND IKE IS EXPECTED TO TURN
MORE TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS OR SO AS THE RIDGE
WEAKENS DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE. THEREAFTER...THE RIDGE
IS FORECAST TO RESTRENGTHEN AND SHOULD FORCE IKE ON A MORE WESTWARD
TRACK. IN FACT...UNANIMOUSLY...GUIDANCE SHIFTED SOUTHWARD AND ONCE
AGAIN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT AND STILL IS
ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
IT CANNOT BE OVEREMPHASIZED THAT ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON 4 AND 5 DAY
FORECAST POINTS SINCE THESE CAN BE SUBJECT TO SUBSTANTIAL ERRORS.
DO NOT FORGET THAT FEW DAYS AGO...THE GUIDANCE UNANIMOUSLY HAD IKE
NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA AND THEN GRADUALLY SHIFTED THE DANGER TOWARD
WESTERN CUBA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 09/0900Z 22.0N 82.1W 70 KT
12HR VT 09/1800Z 22.7N 83.5W 80 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 10/0600Z 23.5N 85.3W 85 KT
36HR VT 10/1800Z 24.2N 86.8W 90 KT
48HR VT 11/0600Z 25.0N 88.5W 95 KT
72HR VT 12/0600Z 25.5N 93.0W 100 KT
96HR VT 13/0600Z 27.0N 97.5W 100 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 14/0600Z 28.0N 100.5W 40 KT...INLAND
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 AM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008
...HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS REPORTED IN HAVANA...
AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED THE
HURRICANE WARNINGS EAST OF THE PROVINCE OF MATANZAS.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN
BRAC.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND CAYMAN.
INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF IKE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED BY
RADAR AND A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 82.1 WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES...135 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
HAVANA CUBA.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TODAY. ON THIS TRACK...IKE
IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND
SOUTH COAST OF HAVANA PROVINCE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND
THEN MOVE OVER WESTERN CUBA LATER TODAY. IKE IS EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE IKE MOVES OVER WESTERN CUBA
TODAY. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TO OCCUR WHEN IKE
REACHES THE GULF OF MEXICO.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195
MILES...315 KM. THE CUBAN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE AT CASABLANCA
HAVANA RECENTLY MEASURED A WIND GUST OF 75 MPH...120 KM/HR. KEY
WEST RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 54 MPH...87 KM/HR.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE WAS 965
MB...28.50 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS EAST OF IKE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF CUBA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET...ALONG WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THESE WAVES COULD GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP
CURRENTS.
IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
OVER CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE FLORIDA KEYS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY.
REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...22.0 N...82.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 AM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE
THAT IKE HAS A LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS BUT THE
INNER CORE OR EYE IS VERY SMALL BUT WELL DEFINED...ABOUT 6 TO 8 NM.
THE EYE CAN BE SEEN FROM CUBAN AND KEY WEST RADARS. ALTHOUGH THE
MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS BEEN AROUND 963-965 MB...THE MAXIMUM
FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS MEASURED SO FAR WERE ONLY 69 KNOTS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 70 KNOTS ASSUMING THAT THE PLANE HAS NOT
SAMPLED THE ENTIRE CIRCULATION...BUT THIS VALUE APPEARS QUITE
GENEROUS AT THIS TIME. ON THE OTHER HAND...GIVEN THE WELL DEFINED
STRUCTURE ON RADAR AND SATELLITE AND THE FACT THAT IKE HAS SEVERAL
MORE HOURS OVER THE VERY WARM WATERS SOUTH OF CUBA...THE WINDS
WINDS COULD INCREASE SOME NEAR THE CORE BEFORE MOVING OVER WESTERN
CUBA. ONCE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...IKE WILL
HAVE PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT IS
CONDUCIVE...AND THE HURRICANE WILL LIKELY MOVE OVER SEVERAL AREAS
OF HIGH HEAT CONTENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAKES IKE A CATEGORY 3
HURRICANE AND THIS VALUE IS IN BETWEEN THE DYNAMICAL AND
STATISTICAL MODELS.
FIXES FROM CUBAN AND KEY WEST RADARS AS WILL AS PENETRATIONS FROM A
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE SMALL EYE OF IKE IS MOVING
WESTWARD OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS...VERY CLOSE TO THE ZAPATA
PENINSULA ON THE SOUTH COAST OF WESTERN CUBA. A GENERAL WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK BETWEEN THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND THE SOUTH
COAST OF HAVANA PROVINCE SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. THEN...THE CENTER SHOULD CROSS WESTERN CUBA LATER TODAY.
UNFORTUNATELY... IKE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY NEAR TO WHERE
HURRICANE GUSTAV CROSSED CUBA A WEEK OR SO AGO. THE STEERING PATTERN
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED LITTLE AND IKE IS EXPECTED TO TURN
MORE TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS OR SO AS THE RIDGE
WEAKENS DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE. THEREAFTER...THE RIDGE
IS FORECAST TO RESTRENGTHEN AND SHOULD FORCE IKE ON A MORE WESTWARD
TRACK. IN FACT...UNANIMOUSLY...GUIDANCE SHIFTED SOUTHWARD AND ONCE
AGAIN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT AND STILL IS
ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
IT CANNOT BE OVEREMPHASIZED THAT ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON 4 AND 5 DAY
FORECAST POINTS SINCE THESE CAN BE SUBJECT TO SUBSTANTIAL ERRORS.
DO NOT FORGET THAT FEW DAYS AGO...THE GUIDANCE UNANIMOUSLY HAD IKE
NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA AND THEN GRADUALLY SHIFTED THE DANGER TOWARD
WESTERN CUBA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 09/0900Z 22.0N 82.1W 70 KT
12HR VT 09/1800Z 22.7N 83.5W 80 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 10/0600Z 23.5N 85.3W 85 KT
36HR VT 10/1800Z 24.2N 86.8W 90 KT
48HR VT 11/0600Z 25.0N 88.5W 95 KT
72HR VT 12/0600Z 25.5N 93.0W 100 KT
96HR VT 13/0600Z 27.0N 97.5W 100 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 14/0600Z 28.0N 100.5W 40 KT...INLAND
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL IKE: Advisories
KNHC 091151
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 33A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
800 AM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008
...CENTER OF IKE APPROACHING WESTERN CUBA...
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
DISCONTINUED ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.
INTERESTS IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
IKE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.4 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES...65
KM...SOUTH OF HAVANA CUBA.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THE CENTER OF IKE SHOULD REACH THE SOUTH COAST OF WESTERN
CUBA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND EMERGE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING BEFORE IKE MOVES OVER
WESTERN CUBA. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TO OCCUR AFTER
IKE REACHES THE GULF OF MEXICO.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195
MILES...315 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE WAS 965
MB...28.50 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS EAST OF IKE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF CUBA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET...ALONG WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THESE WAVES COULD GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP
CURRENTS.
IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
OVER CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE FLORIDA KEYS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY.
REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...22.4 N...82.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 33A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
800 AM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008
...CENTER OF IKE APPROACHING WESTERN CUBA...
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
DISCONTINUED ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.
INTERESTS IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
IKE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.4 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES...65
KM...SOUTH OF HAVANA CUBA.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THE CENTER OF IKE SHOULD REACH THE SOUTH COAST OF WESTERN
CUBA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND EMERGE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING BEFORE IKE MOVES OVER
WESTERN CUBA. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TO OCCUR AFTER
IKE REACHES THE GULF OF MEXICO.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195
MILES...315 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE WAS 965
MB...28.50 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS EAST OF IKE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF CUBA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET...ALONG WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THESE WAVES COULD GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP
CURRENTS.
IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
OVER CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE FLORIDA KEYS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY.
REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...22.4 N...82.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL IKE: Advisories
WTNT24 KNHC 091449
TCMAT4
HURRICANE IKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1500 UTC TUE SEP 09 2008
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 83.0W AT 09/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 75SE 30SW 90NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 100SW 170NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 90SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 83.0W AT 09/1500Z
AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 82.4W
FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 23.2N 84.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 75SE 30SW 90NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 170NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 24.0N 85.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 90NW.
34 KT...175NE 150SE 125SW 175NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 24.7N 87.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.
34 KT...175NE 175SE 125SW 175NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 25.2N 89.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.
34 KT...175NE 175SE 125SW 175NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 26.0N 93.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.
34 KT...175NE 175SE 125SW 175NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 27.5N 97.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 29.0N 99.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.6N 83.0W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
TCMAT4
HURRICANE IKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1500 UTC TUE SEP 09 2008
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 83.0W AT 09/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 75SE 30SW 90NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 100SW 170NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 90SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 83.0W AT 09/1500Z
AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 82.4W
FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 23.2N 84.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 75SE 30SW 90NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 170NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 24.0N 85.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 90NW.
34 KT...175NE 150SE 125SW 175NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 24.7N 87.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.
34 KT...175NE 175SE 125SW 175NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 25.2N 89.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.
34 KT...175NE 175SE 125SW 175NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 26.0N 93.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.
34 KT...175NE 175SE 125SW 175NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 27.5N 97.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 29.0N 99.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.6N 83.0W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL IKE: Advisories
WTNT44 KNHC 091452
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008
RADAR AND RECONNAISSANCE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT IKE IS MAINTAINING A
SMALL AND WELL-DEFINED EYEWALL...AND THE SATELLITE PRESENTION IS
THAT OF A STRONGER STORM THAN THE RECONNAISSANCE WIND DATA SUPPORT.
THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 965 MB ON THE LAST PASS...BUT THE PEAK
FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE NO HIGHER THAN 66 KT. SFMR DATA SEEM TO
SUPPORT A 65 KT INTENSITY...BUT SINCE THERE WAS LIMITED SAMPLING IN
THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT THE ADVISORY ESTIMATE WILL REMAIN 70 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/11. IKE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO IN RESPONSE TO A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. AFTER THAT...RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES IS
EXPECTED TO BEND THE TRACK SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT IN THE CENTRAL
GULF...AND THE GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 72
HOURS. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY NEAR THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS SHOWING A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE ROCKIES THAT INDUCES A RIGHT
TURN ON DAY 4. THE GFS AND NOGAPS HAVE A DIFFERENT PATTERN...WITH
MORE RIDGING EXTENDING WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF IKE THAT KEEPS THE
HURRICANE MOVING BASICALLY WESTWARD. THE ECMWF HAS DONE VERY WELL
WITH IKE THUS FAR...AND HAS RELATIVELY HIGH SKILL IN FORECASTING
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERNS AT THE LONGER RANGES. OUT OF RESPECT FOR
THIS MODEL THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND TO
THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND IS PRETTY CLOSE TO THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. BEGINNING TOMORROW AT 12Z THE NOAA G-IV
JET AIRCRAFT WILL BE SAMPLING THE ENVIRONMENT OF IKE TO ASSIST IN
THE DETERMINATION OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS.
WHEN IKE IS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IT WILL BE IN A VERY
DIFLUENT AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR RESTRENGTHENING...AND IKE IS
EXPECTED TO REGAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS. THE PATTERN LOOKS A
LITTLE LESS CONDUCIVE IN THE WESTERN GULF...WITH SOME NORTHEASTERLY
SHEAR...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS NO FURTHER STRENGTHENING
THERE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE...WHICH IS BASICALLY CATEGORY 2...AND THE DYNAMICAL
GFDL/HWRF WHICH SHOW CAT 3/4 STRENGTH IN THE WESTERN GULF.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 09/1500Z 22.6N 83.0W 70 KT
12HR VT 10/0000Z 23.2N 84.2W 70 KT
24HR VT 10/1200Z 24.0N 85.8W 85 KT
36HR VT 11/0000Z 24.7N 87.4W 95 KT
48HR VT 11/1200Z 25.2N 89.2W 100 KT
72HR VT 12/1200Z 26.0N 93.5W 100 KT
96HR VT 13/1200Z 27.5N 97.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 14/1200Z 29.0N 99.5W 40 KT...INLAND
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008
RADAR AND RECONNAISSANCE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT IKE IS MAINTAINING A
SMALL AND WELL-DEFINED EYEWALL...AND THE SATELLITE PRESENTION IS
THAT OF A STRONGER STORM THAN THE RECONNAISSANCE WIND DATA SUPPORT.
THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 965 MB ON THE LAST PASS...BUT THE PEAK
FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE NO HIGHER THAN 66 KT. SFMR DATA SEEM TO
SUPPORT A 65 KT INTENSITY...BUT SINCE THERE WAS LIMITED SAMPLING IN
THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT THE ADVISORY ESTIMATE WILL REMAIN 70 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/11. IKE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO IN RESPONSE TO A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. AFTER THAT...RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES IS
EXPECTED TO BEND THE TRACK SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT IN THE CENTRAL
GULF...AND THE GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 72
HOURS. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY NEAR THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS SHOWING A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE ROCKIES THAT INDUCES A RIGHT
TURN ON DAY 4. THE GFS AND NOGAPS HAVE A DIFFERENT PATTERN...WITH
MORE RIDGING EXTENDING WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF IKE THAT KEEPS THE
HURRICANE MOVING BASICALLY WESTWARD. THE ECMWF HAS DONE VERY WELL
WITH IKE THUS FAR...AND HAS RELATIVELY HIGH SKILL IN FORECASTING
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERNS AT THE LONGER RANGES. OUT OF RESPECT FOR
THIS MODEL THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND TO
THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND IS PRETTY CLOSE TO THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. BEGINNING TOMORROW AT 12Z THE NOAA G-IV
JET AIRCRAFT WILL BE SAMPLING THE ENVIRONMENT OF IKE TO ASSIST IN
THE DETERMINATION OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS.
WHEN IKE IS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IT WILL BE IN A VERY
DIFLUENT AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR RESTRENGTHENING...AND IKE IS
EXPECTED TO REGAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS. THE PATTERN LOOKS A
LITTLE LESS CONDUCIVE IN THE WESTERN GULF...WITH SOME NORTHEASTERLY
SHEAR...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS NO FURTHER STRENGTHENING
THERE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE...WHICH IS BASICALLY CATEGORY 2...AND THE DYNAMICAL
GFDL/HWRF WHICH SHOW CAT 3/4 STRENGTH IN THE WESTERN GULF.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 09/1500Z 22.6N 83.0W 70 KT
12HR VT 10/0000Z 23.2N 84.2W 70 KT
24HR VT 10/1200Z 24.0N 85.8W 85 KT
36HR VT 11/0000Z 24.7N 87.4W 95 KT
48HR VT 11/1200Z 25.2N 89.2W 100 KT
72HR VT 12/1200Z 26.0N 93.5W 100 KT
96HR VT 13/1200Z 27.5N 97.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 14/1200Z 29.0N 99.5W 40 KT...INLAND
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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Brent
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Re: ATL IKE: Advisories
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 34A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
200 PM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008
...IKE CROSSING WESTERN CUBA...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
INLAND OVER WESTERN CUBA NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.4
WEST OR ABOUT 65 MILES...105 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HAVANA CUBA.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE
CENTER OF IKE IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. A GUST TO 118 MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT PASO REAL IN
PINAR DEL RIO. IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-
SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE AS IKE CROSSES
WESTERN CUBA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT RESTRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED ONCE IKE MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195
MILES...315 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL REACH THE
CENTER OF IKE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET...ALONG WITH LARGE AND
DANGEROUS WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST
OF FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS COULD GENERATE
DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.
IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP
TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY.
REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...22.7 N...83.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 34A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
200 PM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008
...IKE CROSSING WESTERN CUBA...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
INLAND OVER WESTERN CUBA NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.4
WEST OR ABOUT 65 MILES...105 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HAVANA CUBA.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE
CENTER OF IKE IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. A GUST TO 118 MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT PASO REAL IN
PINAR DEL RIO. IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-
SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE AS IKE CROSSES
WESTERN CUBA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT RESTRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED ONCE IKE MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195
MILES...315 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL REACH THE
CENTER OF IKE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET...ALONG WITH LARGE AND
DANGEROUS WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST
OF FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS COULD GENERATE
DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.
IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP
TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY.
REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...22.7 N...83.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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Brent
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- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
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- Contact:
Re: ATL IKE: Advisories
HURRICANE IKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
2100 UTC TUE SEP 09 2008
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 83.8W AT 09/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT.......100NE 75SE 30SW 90NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 100SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 180SE 90SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 83.8W AT 09/2100Z
AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 83.4W
FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 23.5N 85.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 60NW.
50 KT...100NE 75SE 30SW 90NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 24.3N 86.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 100NW.
34 KT...175NE 150SE 125SW 175NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 24.9N 88.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.
34 KT...175NE 175SE 125SW 175NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 25.3N 90.6W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.
34 KT...175NE 175SE 125SW 175NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 26.5N 95.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.
34 KT...175NE 175SE 125SW 175NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 29.5N 98.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 33.6N 98.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.9N 83.8W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008
...IKE EMERGES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED JUST
OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF WESTERN CUBA NEAR LATITUDE 22.9
NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.8 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES...145 KM...WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF HAVANA CUBA.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
NOW THAT IKE HAS EMERGED INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...STRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED AND IKE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.
THE MOST RECENT MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 968 MB...28.59 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
COASTS OF CUBA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET...ALONG WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST
OF FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS COULD GENERATE
DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.
IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP
TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
FLORIDA KEYS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH TONIGHT.
REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...22.9 N...83.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008
IKE MAINTAINED A FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED CORE STRUCTURE DURING ITS
PASSAGE OVER WESTERN CUBA...ALTHOUGH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE CENTER DURING THE LAST HOUR OR TWO. A
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS JUST BEGINNING ITS PATTERN TO DETERMINE
THE INTENSITY OF IKE...AND THEY HAVE ALREADY DETERMINED THAT THE
MINIMUM PRESSURE REMAINS LOW...968 MB. IN THE MEANTIME...THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KT. REPORTS FROM THE
PLANE JUST IN SUGGEST THAT THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WIND IS 60 NM OR
LARGER. IT APPEARS THAT THE CORE IS INTACT ENOUGH TO TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF SOME VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO...INCLUDING SOME VERY DIFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE
NEXT 36 HOURS. IN ADDITION...THE FORECAST TRACK FOR IKE TAKES IT
NEAR OR OVER THREE WARM EDDIES...REGIONS OF ENHANCED OCEANIC HEAT
CONTENT. THE GFDL AND HWRF CONTINUE TO FORECAST IKE TO REACH
CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF...WHILE THE
SHIPS AND LGEM FAIL TO MAKE IKE A MAJOR HURRICANE. THE GFS AND
UKMET STILL SHOW AN UPPER-AIR PATTERN THAT LOOKS SLIGHTLY LESS
FAVORABLE IN THE WESTERN GULF...SO I HAVE LEVELLED OFF THE
INTENSITY FORECAST AFTER 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...IKE IS A LARGE
TROPICAL CYCLONE AND MAY BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITS FAVORABLE OUTFLOW
ACROSS THE GULF.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/9...AND THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS AS IKE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO IN RESPONSE TO
A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THERE HAS BEEN A SIGNIFICANT NARROWING IN THE SPREAD OF THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS...WITH THE GFS...GFDL...AND NOGAPS ALL SHOWING
LESS RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF IKE LATE IN THE PERIOD AND SHIFTING
THEIR TRACKS NORTHWARD TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET AND
ECMWF RUNS. IKE IS NOW EXPECTED TO RECURVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED NORTHWARD ON DAYS FOUR AND FIVE...BUT
ALL OF THE BETTER DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE EVEN FARTHER TO THE RIGHT.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 09/2100Z 22.9N 83.8W 65 KT
12HR VT 10/0600Z 23.5N 85.1W 70 KT
24HR VT 10/1800Z 24.3N 86.6W 90 KT
36HR VT 11/0600Z 24.9N 88.4W 100 KT
48HR VT 11/1800Z 25.3N 90.6W 105 KT
72HR VT 12/1800Z 26.5N 95.0W 100 KT
96HR VT 13/1800Z 29.5N 98.0W 60 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 14/1800Z 33.6N 98.0W 30 KT...INLAND
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
2100 UTC TUE SEP 09 2008
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 83.8W AT 09/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT.......100NE 75SE 30SW 90NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 100SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 180SE 90SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 83.8W AT 09/2100Z
AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 83.4W
FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 23.5N 85.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 60NW.
50 KT...100NE 75SE 30SW 90NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 24.3N 86.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 100NW.
34 KT...175NE 150SE 125SW 175NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 24.9N 88.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.
34 KT...175NE 175SE 125SW 175NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 25.3N 90.6W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.
34 KT...175NE 175SE 125SW 175NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 26.5N 95.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.
34 KT...175NE 175SE 125SW 175NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 29.5N 98.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 33.6N 98.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.9N 83.8W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008
...IKE EMERGES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED JUST
OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF WESTERN CUBA NEAR LATITUDE 22.9
NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.8 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES...145 KM...WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF HAVANA CUBA.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
NOW THAT IKE HAS EMERGED INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...STRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED AND IKE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.
THE MOST RECENT MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 968 MB...28.59 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
COASTS OF CUBA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET...ALONG WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST
OF FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS COULD GENERATE
DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.
IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP
TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
FLORIDA KEYS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH TONIGHT.
REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...22.9 N...83.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008
IKE MAINTAINED A FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED CORE STRUCTURE DURING ITS
PASSAGE OVER WESTERN CUBA...ALTHOUGH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE CENTER DURING THE LAST HOUR OR TWO. A
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS JUST BEGINNING ITS PATTERN TO DETERMINE
THE INTENSITY OF IKE...AND THEY HAVE ALREADY DETERMINED THAT THE
MINIMUM PRESSURE REMAINS LOW...968 MB. IN THE MEANTIME...THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KT. REPORTS FROM THE
PLANE JUST IN SUGGEST THAT THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WIND IS 60 NM OR
LARGER. IT APPEARS THAT THE CORE IS INTACT ENOUGH TO TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF SOME VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO...INCLUDING SOME VERY DIFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE
NEXT 36 HOURS. IN ADDITION...THE FORECAST TRACK FOR IKE TAKES IT
NEAR OR OVER THREE WARM EDDIES...REGIONS OF ENHANCED OCEANIC HEAT
CONTENT. THE GFDL AND HWRF CONTINUE TO FORECAST IKE TO REACH
CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF...WHILE THE
SHIPS AND LGEM FAIL TO MAKE IKE A MAJOR HURRICANE. THE GFS AND
UKMET STILL SHOW AN UPPER-AIR PATTERN THAT LOOKS SLIGHTLY LESS
FAVORABLE IN THE WESTERN GULF...SO I HAVE LEVELLED OFF THE
INTENSITY FORECAST AFTER 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...IKE IS A LARGE
TROPICAL CYCLONE AND MAY BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITS FAVORABLE OUTFLOW
ACROSS THE GULF.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/9...AND THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS AS IKE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO IN RESPONSE TO
A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THERE HAS BEEN A SIGNIFICANT NARROWING IN THE SPREAD OF THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS...WITH THE GFS...GFDL...AND NOGAPS ALL SHOWING
LESS RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF IKE LATE IN THE PERIOD AND SHIFTING
THEIR TRACKS NORTHWARD TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET AND
ECMWF RUNS. IKE IS NOW EXPECTED TO RECURVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED NORTHWARD ON DAYS FOUR AND FIVE...BUT
ALL OF THE BETTER DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE EVEN FARTHER TO THE RIGHT.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 09/2100Z 22.9N 83.8W 65 KT
12HR VT 10/0600Z 23.5N 85.1W 70 KT
24HR VT 10/1800Z 24.3N 86.6W 90 KT
36HR VT 11/0600Z 24.9N 88.4W 100 KT
48HR VT 11/1800Z 25.3N 90.6W 105 KT
72HR VT 12/1800Z 26.5N 95.0W 100 KT
96HR VT 13/1800Z 29.5N 98.0W 60 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 14/1800Z 33.6N 98.0W 30 KT...INLAND
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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Re: ATL IKE: Advisories
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 35A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
800 PM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008
...IKE MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...HEAVY SQUALLS
CONTINUING OVER THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.0 WEST OR ABOUT 95 MILES...145
KM...WEST OF HAVANA CUBA.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND IKE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE
IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM. KEY WEST HAS REPORTED SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS WITH RECENT GUSTS TO 54 MPH...87 KM/HR.
THE MOST RECENT MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 969 MB...28.61 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
COASTS OF CUBA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET...ALONG WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST
OF FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS COULD GENERATE
DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.
IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP
TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
FLORIDA KEYS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH TONIGHT.
REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...23.1 N...84.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BERG
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 35A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
800 PM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008
...IKE MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...HEAVY SQUALLS
CONTINUING OVER THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.0 WEST OR ABOUT 95 MILES...145
KM...WEST OF HAVANA CUBA.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND IKE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE
IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM. KEY WEST HAS REPORTED SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS WITH RECENT GUSTS TO 54 MPH...87 KM/HR.
THE MOST RECENT MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 969 MB...28.61 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
COASTS OF CUBA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET...ALONG WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST
OF FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS COULD GENERATE
DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.
IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP
TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
FLORIDA KEYS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH TONIGHT.
REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...23.1 N...84.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BERG
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Brent
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Re: ATL IKE: Advisories
HURRICANE IKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
0300 UTC WED SEP 10 2008
AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS CHANGED THE
HURRICANE WARNING TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CUBAN
PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE HABANA...PINAR DEL
RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR FLORIDA BAY
AND FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE WEST END OF THE
SEVEN MILE BRIDGE IS DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO
THE DRY TORTUGAS.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 84.3W AT 10/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 967 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT.......100NE 75SE 30SW 90NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 100SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 210SE 150SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 84.3W AT 10/0300Z
AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 84.0W
FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 23.9N 85.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT...100NE 75SE 30SW 90NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 24.6N 87.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 100NW.
34 KT...175NE 150SE 125SW 175NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 25.2N 89.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.
34 KT...175NE 175SE 125SW 175NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 25.6N 91.1W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.
34 KT...175NE 175SE 125SW 175NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 27.5N 95.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.
34 KT...175NE 175SE 125SW 175NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 30.5N 98.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 35.0N 97.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.2N 84.3W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BERG
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008
...IKE BEGINNING TO STRENGTHEN...
AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS CHANGED THE
HURRICANE WARNING TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CUBAN
PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE HABANA...PINAR DEL
RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR FLORIDA BAY
AND FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE WEST END OF THE
SEVEN MILE BRIDGE IS DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO
THE DRY TORTUGAS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.3 WEST OR ABOUT 120 MILES...
195 KM...WEST OF HAVANA CUBA.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
DATA FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND IKE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE
IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM. KEY WEST RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45
MPH...72 KM/HR...WITH A GUST TO 60 MPH...96 KM/HR.
THE NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 967 MB...28.56 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING AND WAVES ALONG THE COASTS OF CUBA
SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3
FEET...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
LOWER FLORIDA KEYS.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST
OF FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS COULD GENERATE
DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.
IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
OVER WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA OVERNIGHT.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...23.2 N...84.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BERG
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008
THE SFMR INSTRUMENT ABOARD A NOAA RESEARCH AIRCRAFT MEASURED A
MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND OF 69 KT SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS
INCREASED TO 70 KT. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE EYE IS BECOMING
BETTER DEFINED WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS AROUND IT. IKE WILL BE
TRAVERSING THE LOOP CURRENT WITHIN THE NEXT DAY...AND THERE ARE A
COUPLE OF OTHER WARM EDDIES...ALBEIT LESS PRONOUNCED...NEAR THE
PROJECTED PATH OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF. THE GFS 200 MB
WIND FORECAST SHOWS SOME NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER IKE WHEN IT
REACHES THE WESTERN GULF...BUT ALSO WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW OVER THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE HURRICANE. THE SHIPS MODEL DOES NOT
INDICATE MUCH STRENGTHENING THROUGH 72 HOURS...PRESUMABLY BECAUSE
OF WARM UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A 200 MB HIGH NEAR
TEXAS. GIVEN THE OTHERWISE SEEMINGLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS IKE TO MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS AS IN THE
PREVIOUS SEVERAL NHC FORECASTS.
THE EYE HAS BEEN WOBBLING AROUND AGAIN BUT THE MEAN MOTION IS NEAR
300/8. THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
SHOULD BE THE FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE NEAR THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...IKE SHOULD
MAKE A TURN AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THERE IS
STILL A QUESTION AS TO HOW SOON THIS TURN WILL BEGIN. THE TRACK
MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT ON THE MOTION UP TO ABOUT 72 HOURS.
AFTERWARD THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRAJECTORY AND
FORWARD SPEED. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS HAVE
SHIFTED A LITTLE SOUTHWARD BUT THE OVERALL DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS NOT CHANGED APPRECIABLY. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
FOR THIS PACKAGE IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. AGAIN...ONE
SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT LANDFALL FORECAST POINT DUE TO THE
INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 10/0300Z 23.2N 84.3W 70 KT
12HR VT 10/1200Z 23.9N 85.5W 75 KT
24HR VT 11/0000Z 24.6N 87.1W 90 KT
36HR VT 11/1200Z 25.2N 89.0W 100 KT
48HR VT 12/0000Z 25.6N 91.1W 105 KT
72HR VT 13/0000Z 27.5N 95.5W 105 KT
96HR VT 14/0000Z 30.5N 98.5W 40 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 15/0000Z 35.0N 97.0W 25 KT...INLAND
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BERG
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
0300 UTC WED SEP 10 2008
AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS CHANGED THE
HURRICANE WARNING TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CUBAN
PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE HABANA...PINAR DEL
RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR FLORIDA BAY
AND FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE WEST END OF THE
SEVEN MILE BRIDGE IS DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO
THE DRY TORTUGAS.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 84.3W AT 10/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 967 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT.......100NE 75SE 30SW 90NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 100SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 210SE 150SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 84.3W AT 10/0300Z
AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 84.0W
FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 23.9N 85.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT...100NE 75SE 30SW 90NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 24.6N 87.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 100NW.
34 KT...175NE 150SE 125SW 175NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 25.2N 89.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.
34 KT...175NE 175SE 125SW 175NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 25.6N 91.1W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.
34 KT...175NE 175SE 125SW 175NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 27.5N 95.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.
34 KT...175NE 175SE 125SW 175NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 30.5N 98.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 35.0N 97.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.2N 84.3W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BERG
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008
...IKE BEGINNING TO STRENGTHEN...
AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS CHANGED THE
HURRICANE WARNING TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CUBAN
PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE HABANA...PINAR DEL
RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR FLORIDA BAY
AND FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE WEST END OF THE
SEVEN MILE BRIDGE IS DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO
THE DRY TORTUGAS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.3 WEST OR ABOUT 120 MILES...
195 KM...WEST OF HAVANA CUBA.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
DATA FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND IKE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE
IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM. KEY WEST RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45
MPH...72 KM/HR...WITH A GUST TO 60 MPH...96 KM/HR.
THE NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 967 MB...28.56 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING AND WAVES ALONG THE COASTS OF CUBA
SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3
FEET...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
LOWER FLORIDA KEYS.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST
OF FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS COULD GENERATE
DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.
IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
OVER WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA OVERNIGHT.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...23.2 N...84.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BERG
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008
THE SFMR INSTRUMENT ABOARD A NOAA RESEARCH AIRCRAFT MEASURED A
MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND OF 69 KT SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS
INCREASED TO 70 KT. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE EYE IS BECOMING
BETTER DEFINED WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS AROUND IT. IKE WILL BE
TRAVERSING THE LOOP CURRENT WITHIN THE NEXT DAY...AND THERE ARE A
COUPLE OF OTHER WARM EDDIES...ALBEIT LESS PRONOUNCED...NEAR THE
PROJECTED PATH OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF. THE GFS 200 MB
WIND FORECAST SHOWS SOME NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER IKE WHEN IT
REACHES THE WESTERN GULF...BUT ALSO WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW OVER THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE HURRICANE. THE SHIPS MODEL DOES NOT
INDICATE MUCH STRENGTHENING THROUGH 72 HOURS...PRESUMABLY BECAUSE
OF WARM UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A 200 MB HIGH NEAR
TEXAS. GIVEN THE OTHERWISE SEEMINGLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS IKE TO MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS AS IN THE
PREVIOUS SEVERAL NHC FORECASTS.
THE EYE HAS BEEN WOBBLING AROUND AGAIN BUT THE MEAN MOTION IS NEAR
300/8. THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
SHOULD BE THE FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE NEAR THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...IKE SHOULD
MAKE A TURN AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THERE IS
STILL A QUESTION AS TO HOW SOON THIS TURN WILL BEGIN. THE TRACK
MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT ON THE MOTION UP TO ABOUT 72 HOURS.
AFTERWARD THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRAJECTORY AND
FORWARD SPEED. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS HAVE
SHIFTED A LITTLE SOUTHWARD BUT THE OVERALL DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS NOT CHANGED APPRECIABLY. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
FOR THIS PACKAGE IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. AGAIN...ONE
SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT LANDFALL FORECAST POINT DUE TO THE
INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 10/0300Z 23.2N 84.3W 70 KT
12HR VT 10/1200Z 23.9N 85.5W 75 KT
24HR VT 11/0000Z 24.6N 87.1W 90 KT
36HR VT 11/1200Z 25.2N 89.0W 100 KT
48HR VT 12/0000Z 25.6N 91.1W 105 KT
72HR VT 13/0000Z 27.5N 95.5W 105 KT
96HR VT 14/0000Z 30.5N 98.5W 40 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 15/0000Z 35.0N 97.0W 25 KT...INLAND
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BERG
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Brent
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 37125
- Age: 35
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
Re: ATL IKE: Advisories
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 36A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
200 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2008
...IKE IS NOT IN A HURRY...STILL PRODUCING HEAVY SQUALLS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND WESTERN CUBA...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF THE SEVEN
MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED BY
RADARS FROM KEY WEST AND CUBA NEAR LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE
84.6 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES...165 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CABO SAN
ANTONIO ON THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.
IKE HAS SLOWED DOWN A LITTLE AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A
SMALL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND IKE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE
IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE
IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING IKE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM. DRY TORTUGAS RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF
55 MPH...89 KM/HR...WITH A GUST TO 70 MPH...113 KM/HR.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 967 MB...28.56 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING AND WAVES ALONG THE COASTS OF CUBA
SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3
FEET...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
LOWER FLORIDA KEYS.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST
OF FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS COULD GENERATE
DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.
IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
OVER WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING.
REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...23.3 N...84.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 36A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
200 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2008
...IKE IS NOT IN A HURRY...STILL PRODUCING HEAVY SQUALLS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND WESTERN CUBA...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF THE SEVEN
MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED BY
RADARS FROM KEY WEST AND CUBA NEAR LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE
84.6 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES...165 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CABO SAN
ANTONIO ON THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.
IKE HAS SLOWED DOWN A LITTLE AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A
SMALL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND IKE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE
IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE
IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING IKE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM. DRY TORTUGAS RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF
55 MPH...89 KM/HR...WITH A GUST TO 70 MPH...113 KM/HR.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 967 MB...28.56 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING AND WAVES ALONG THE COASTS OF CUBA
SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3
FEET...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
LOWER FLORIDA KEYS.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST
OF FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS COULD GENERATE
DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.
IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
OVER WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING.
REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...23.3 N...84.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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Re: ATL IKE: Advisories
000
WTNT24 KNHC 100846
TCMAT4
HURRICANE IKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
0900 UTC WED SEP 10 2008
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF MATANZAS...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND
THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM KEY WEST
EASTWARD HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FROM WEST OF KEY WEST TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 84.9W AT 10/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 963 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT.......100NE 75SE 30SW 90NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 100SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 90SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 84.9W AT 10/0900Z
AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 84.6W
FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 24.0N 86.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT...100NE 75SE 30SW 90NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 24.7N 87.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 100NW.
34 KT...175NE 150SE 125SW 175NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 25.2N 89.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.
34 KT...175NE 175SE 125SW 175NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 25.8N 92.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.
34 KT...175NE 175SE 125SW 175NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 27.5N 96.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.
34 KT...175NE 175SE 125SW 175NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 31.5N 98.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 34.5N 97.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.5N 84.9W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
WTNT24 KNHC 100846
TCMAT4
HURRICANE IKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
0900 UTC WED SEP 10 2008
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF MATANZAS...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND
THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM KEY WEST
EASTWARD HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FROM WEST OF KEY WEST TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 84.9W AT 10/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 963 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT.......100NE 75SE 30SW 90NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 100SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 90SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 84.9W AT 10/0900Z
AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 84.6W
FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 24.0N 86.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT...100NE 75SE 30SW 90NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 24.7N 87.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 100NW.
34 KT...175NE 150SE 125SW 175NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 25.2N 89.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.
34 KT...175NE 175SE 125SW 175NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 25.8N 92.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.
34 KT...175NE 175SE 125SW 175NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 27.5N 96.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.
34 KT...175NE 175SE 125SW 175NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 31.5N 98.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 34.5N 97.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.5N 84.9W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL IKE: Advisories
WTNT34 KNHC 101139
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 37A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
800 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2008
...IKE STILL AFFECTING THE LOWER KEYS AND WESTERN CUBA...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF MATANZAS...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND
THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF KEY WEST TO
THE DRY TORTUGAS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.3 WEST OR ABOUT 145 MILES...230
KM...NORTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA AND ABOUT 430 MILES...695 KM
...SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...BUT A
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IS EXPECTED TO RESUME LATER TODAY AND THEN TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND IKE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM. IKE IS STILL PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER
WESTERN CUBA. THESE ARE SOME RECENT OBSERVATIONS PROVIDED THE CUBAN
METEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE: CASABLANCA HAVANA A WIND GUST TO 80
MPH...129 KM/HR...PINAR DEL RIO...63 MPH...101 KM/HR AND LA PALMA
62 MPH...100 KM/HR.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT WAS 959 MB...28.32 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING AND WAVES ALONG THE COASTS OF CUBA
SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3
FEET...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
LOWER FLORIDA KEYS.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST AND
WEST COASTS OF FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS COULD
GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.
IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
OVER WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THIS MORNING.
ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING.
REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...23.9 N...85.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 37A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
800 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2008
...IKE STILL AFFECTING THE LOWER KEYS AND WESTERN CUBA...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF MATANZAS...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND
THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF KEY WEST TO
THE DRY TORTUGAS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.3 WEST OR ABOUT 145 MILES...230
KM...NORTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA AND ABOUT 430 MILES...695 KM
...SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...BUT A
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IS EXPECTED TO RESUME LATER TODAY AND THEN TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND IKE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM. IKE IS STILL PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER
WESTERN CUBA. THESE ARE SOME RECENT OBSERVATIONS PROVIDED THE CUBAN
METEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE: CASABLANCA HAVANA A WIND GUST TO 80
MPH...129 KM/HR...PINAR DEL RIO...63 MPH...101 KM/HR AND LA PALMA
62 MPH...100 KM/HR.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT WAS 959 MB...28.32 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING AND WAVES ALONG THE COASTS OF CUBA
SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3
FEET...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
LOWER FLORIDA KEYS.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST AND
WEST COASTS OF FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS COULD
GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.
IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
OVER WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THIS MORNING.
ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING.
REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...23.9 N...85.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL IKE: Advisories
WTNT24 KNHC 101448
TCMAT4
HURRICANE IKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1500 UTC WED SEP 10 2008
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF MATANZAS...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND
THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF KEY WEST TO
THE DRY TORTUGAS.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 85.3W AT 10/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 957 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 70NE 10SE 10SW 50NW.
50 KT.......110NE 80SE 75SW 100NW.
34 KT.......180NE 150SE 120SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 90SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 85.3W AT 10/1500Z
AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 85.3W
FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 24.5N 86.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 20SE 20SW 50NW.
50 KT...110NE 80SE 75SW 100NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 120SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 25.2N 88.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT...120NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 150SE 125SW 175NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 25.7N 90.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT...120NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 150SE 125SW 175NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 26.3N 93.1W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT...120NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 150SE 125SW 175NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 28.5N 97.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 100SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT...200NE 150SE 75SW 125NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 31.5N 98.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 34.5N 96.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.9N 85.3W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
TCMAT4
HURRICANE IKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1500 UTC WED SEP 10 2008
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF MATANZAS...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND
THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF KEY WEST TO
THE DRY TORTUGAS.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 85.3W AT 10/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 957 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 70NE 10SE 10SW 50NW.
50 KT.......110NE 80SE 75SW 100NW.
34 KT.......180NE 150SE 120SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 90SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 85.3W AT 10/1500Z
AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 85.3W
FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 24.5N 86.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 20SE 20SW 50NW.
50 KT...110NE 80SE 75SW 100NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 120SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 25.2N 88.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT...120NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 150SE 125SW 175NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 25.7N 90.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT...120NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 150SE 125SW 175NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 26.3N 93.1W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT...120NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 150SE 125SW 175NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 28.5N 97.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 100SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT...200NE 150SE 75SW 125NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 31.5N 98.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 34.5N 96.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.9N 85.3W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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cycloneye
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- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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Re: ATL IKE: Advisories
Discussion released very late after 10 AM CDT:
WTNT44 KNHC 101508
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 38
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2008
THE NOAA AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTED A PEAK SFMR WIND OF 81 KT...AND
A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 957 MB. PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 84
KT...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 80 KT ON THIS BASIS.
THE SFMR AND FLIGHT-LEVEL DATA ALSO INDICATE THAT THAT THE
HURRICANE WIND RADII HAVE EXPANDED.
THE SMALL EYE OF IKE HAS BEEN LOOPING WITHIN A BROADER CYCLONIC
ENVELOPE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT THE OVERALL MOTION OF IKE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 300/7. THERE HAS BEEN ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGE TO THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST...WHICH CALLS FOR A SLIGHT BEND TO THE LEFT
OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THE SPREAD HAS INCREASE
AGAIN LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. ONCE AGAIN...THE GFS INDICATES
A MORE WESTWARD TRACK WHILE THE UKMET AND ECMWF SHOW A RECURVATURE
BEGINNING AROUND THE TIME OF LANDFALL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN
BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL
MODEL CONSENSUS. USERS ARE REMINDED THAT THE AVERAGE THREE DAY
FORECAST ERROR IS NEARLY 200 MILES...AND THAT THE BEST ESTIMATE OF
THE THREAT IS GIVEN BY THE NHC WIND SPEED PROBABILITY GRAPHICAL AND
TEXT PRODUCTS.
THE AIRCRAFT REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE SMALL INNER EYE IS ERODING AS
OUTER BANDS SURROUNDING THIS FEATURE ARE BECOMING BETTER DEFINED.
THIS COULD LIMIT RAPID DEVELOPMENT IN THE VERY NEAR TERM.
HOWEVER...THE UPPER AIR PATTERN IS GOING TO BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...AND NOT MUCH LESS FAVORABLE
THEREAFTER. IN ADDITION...THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES IKE OVER SOME
WARM GULF EDDIES. WHILE THERE IS SOME DRY AIR IN THE WESTERN
GULF...AND INDEED SOME OF THAT IS NEAR THE CORE RIGHT NOW...THE
LARGE SIZE OF THE CIRCULATION AND OUTER BANDING SUGGESTS THAT IKE
SHOULD BE FAIRLY EFFECTIVE IN FIGHTING OFF THESE NEGATIVE EFFECTS.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE GFDL AND HWRF SOLUTIONS THAN
THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 10/1500Z 23.9N 85.3W 80 KT
12HR VT 11/0000Z 24.5N 86.8W 90 KT
24HR VT 11/1200Z 25.2N 88.6W 95 KT
36HR VT 12/0000Z 25.7N 90.7W 105 KT
48HR VT 12/1200Z 26.3N 93.1W 110 KT
72HR VT 13/1200Z 28.5N 97.0W 105 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 14/1200Z 31.5N 98.0W 35 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 15/1200Z 34.5N 96.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
WTNT44 KNHC 101508
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 38
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2008
THE NOAA AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTED A PEAK SFMR WIND OF 81 KT...AND
A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 957 MB. PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 84
KT...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 80 KT ON THIS BASIS.
THE SFMR AND FLIGHT-LEVEL DATA ALSO INDICATE THAT THAT THE
HURRICANE WIND RADII HAVE EXPANDED.
THE SMALL EYE OF IKE HAS BEEN LOOPING WITHIN A BROADER CYCLONIC
ENVELOPE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT THE OVERALL MOTION OF IKE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 300/7. THERE HAS BEEN ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGE TO THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST...WHICH CALLS FOR A SLIGHT BEND TO THE LEFT
OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THE SPREAD HAS INCREASE
AGAIN LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. ONCE AGAIN...THE GFS INDICATES
A MORE WESTWARD TRACK WHILE THE UKMET AND ECMWF SHOW A RECURVATURE
BEGINNING AROUND THE TIME OF LANDFALL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN
BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL
MODEL CONSENSUS. USERS ARE REMINDED THAT THE AVERAGE THREE DAY
FORECAST ERROR IS NEARLY 200 MILES...AND THAT THE BEST ESTIMATE OF
THE THREAT IS GIVEN BY THE NHC WIND SPEED PROBABILITY GRAPHICAL AND
TEXT PRODUCTS.
THE AIRCRAFT REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE SMALL INNER EYE IS ERODING AS
OUTER BANDS SURROUNDING THIS FEATURE ARE BECOMING BETTER DEFINED.
THIS COULD LIMIT RAPID DEVELOPMENT IN THE VERY NEAR TERM.
HOWEVER...THE UPPER AIR PATTERN IS GOING TO BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...AND NOT MUCH LESS FAVORABLE
THEREAFTER. IN ADDITION...THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES IKE OVER SOME
WARM GULF EDDIES. WHILE THERE IS SOME DRY AIR IN THE WESTERN
GULF...AND INDEED SOME OF THAT IS NEAR THE CORE RIGHT NOW...THE
LARGE SIZE OF THE CIRCULATION AND OUTER BANDING SUGGESTS THAT IKE
SHOULD BE FAIRLY EFFECTIVE IN FIGHTING OFF THESE NEGATIVE EFFECTS.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE GFDL AND HWRF SOLUTIONS THAN
THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 10/1500Z 23.9N 85.3W 80 KT
12HR VT 11/0000Z 24.5N 86.8W 90 KT
24HR VT 11/1200Z 25.2N 88.6W 95 KT
36HR VT 12/0000Z 25.7N 90.7W 105 KT
48HR VT 12/1200Z 26.3N 93.1W 110 KT
72HR VT 13/1200Z 28.5N 97.0W 105 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 14/1200Z 31.5N 98.0W 35 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 15/1200Z 34.5N 96.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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Re: ATL IKE: Advisories
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 38A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
200 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2008
...IKE NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF KEY WEST TO
THE DRY TORTUGAS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.8 WEST OR ABOUT 255 MILES...
410 KM...WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 395 MILES...
640 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A TURN
BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...AND
A MOSTLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 100 MPH...155 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. IKE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
IKE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED FROM AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 958 MB...28.29 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE COASTS OF CUBA AND IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD SUBSIDE TODAY. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES OF 2 TO 4
FEET ARE ALREADY OCCURRING ALONG MUCH OF THE NORTH COAST OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO.
IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12
INCHES OVER WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO
20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR SO ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...24.2 N...85.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 38A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
200 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2008
...IKE NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF KEY WEST TO
THE DRY TORTUGAS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.8 WEST OR ABOUT 255 MILES...
410 KM...WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 395 MILES...
640 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A TURN
BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...AND
A MOSTLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 100 MPH...155 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. IKE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
IKE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED FROM AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 958 MB...28.29 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE COASTS OF CUBA AND IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD SUBSIDE TODAY. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES OF 2 TO 4
FEET ARE ALREADY OCCURRING ALONG MUCH OF THE NORTH COAST OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO.
IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12
INCHES OVER WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO
20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR SO ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...24.2 N...85.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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Brent
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Re: ATL IKE: Advisories
HURRICANE IKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 39
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
2100 UTC WED SEP 10 2008
AT 4 PM CDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WESTWARD TO CAMERON
LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
AT 4 PM CDT...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM CAMERON
WESTWARD TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BY FRIDAY.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF KEY WEST TO
THE DRY TORTUGAS.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 86.1W AT 10/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 80NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
50 KT.......150NE 80SE 75SW 110NW.
34 KT.......180NE 150SE 120SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 180SE 120SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 86.1W AT 10/2100Z
AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 85.8W
FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 25.0N 87.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
50 KT...150NE 80SE 75SW 110NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 120SW 180NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 25.6N 89.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT...150NE 100SE 75SW 120NW.
34 KT...200NE 150SE 125SW 200NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 26.2N 91.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT...150NE 100SE 75SW 120NW.
34 KT...200NE 150SE 125SW 200NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 27.0N 94.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT...150NE 100SE 75SW 120NW.
34 KT...200NE 150SE 125SW 200NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 29.5N 97.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 90SW 125NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 34.5N 95.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z...ABSORBED WITHIN FRONTAL ZONE
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.5N 86.1W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 39
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
400 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2008
...WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE GULF COAST...
AT 4 PM CDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WESTWARD TO CAMERON
LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
AT 4 PM CDT...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM CAMERON
WESTWARD TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BY FRIDAY.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF KEY WEST TO
THE DRY TORTUGAS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 400 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.1 WEST OR ABOUT 720 MILES...1155
KM...EAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AND ABOUT 370 MILES...590 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A TURN
BACK TO A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...AND
A MOSTLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
IKE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
IKE IS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 958 MB...28.29 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE COASTS OF CUBA AND IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT. COASTAL STORM
SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE ALONG MUCH OF THE NORTH COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT WILL BE INCREASING ALONG THE
WESTERN GULF COAST AS IKE APPROACHES.
IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12
INCHES OVER WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO
20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND OVER THE EXTREME NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.
REPEATING THE 400 PM CDT POSITION...24.5 N...86.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 700 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 39
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2008
THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA SHOW THAT IKE HAS TWO WELL-DEFINED
WIND MAXIMA OF ROUGHLY EQUAL STRENGTH. THE PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS
OF 93 KT WERE FOUND IN A BAND ABOUT 90 NM EAST OF THE CENTER. A
DROPSONDE WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE CENTER REPORTED LOW-LAYER MEAN
WINDS OF 97 KT...WHICH CORRESPOND TO 82 KT AT THE SURFACE. THE
ADVISORY WINDS ARE SET TO 85 KT ON THIS BASIS. THE LARGE EXPANSE
OF HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXPLAINS THE APPARENT
MISMATCH BETWEEN THE PEAK WINDS AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE.
CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
STRENGTHENING...INCLUDING LIGHT SHEAR AND STRONGLY DIFLUENT
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE OTHER
HAND...RECENT NORTHWARD SHIFTS IN THE TRACK NOW SUGGEST THAT IKE
MAY ENCOUNTER A COOL EDDY IN THE CENTRAL GULF AND MISS A WARM EDDY.
NEVERTHELESS...ALL OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE NOW MAKES IKE A MAJOR
HURRICANE AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS INCREASED SLIGHTLY OVER THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. OTHER THAN INTERNAL EYEWALL DYNAMICS...WHICH
ARE IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST MORE THAN A FEW HOURS IN ADVANCE...I SEE
NO REASON WHY IKE SHOULD WEAKEN APPRECIABLY AS IT MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN GULF.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/7. THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS
BASICALLY UNCHANGED. IKE IS MOVING NORTHWEST TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO...WHICH SHOULD TURN THE TRACK BACK TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST UNTIL IKE APPROACHES A DEEP LAYER TROUGH FORECAST TO
COVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES IN TWO DAYS. ALL GUIDANCE TURNS
IKE NORTHWARD TO VARYING DEGREES WITHIN A DAY OR SO OF PROJECTED
LANDFALL. THERE HAS BEEN A NORTHWARD SHIFT IN SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE...MOST NOTABLY THE GFDL AND GFS. IT IS TO BE EXPECTED
THAT SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE MODEL EVOLUTION OF THE WESTERN TROUGH
AND RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL LEAD TO GUIDANCE FLIP
FLOPS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WITH THAT IN MIND...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED ONLY SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD. IKE IS A VERY
LARGE HURRICANE...AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LARGE AS
IT CROSSES THE GULF OF MEXICO. REGARDLESS OF WHERE THE CENTER
CROSSES THE COAST...THE EFFECTS OF IKE WILL BE FELT OVER A LARGE
AREA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 10/2100Z 24.5N 86.1W 85 KT
12HR VT 11/0600Z 25.0N 87.4W 95 KT
24HR VT 11/1800Z 25.6N 89.3W 105 KT
36HR VT 12/0600Z 26.2N 91.5W 110 KT
48HR VT 12/1800Z 27.0N 94.0W 115 KT
72HR VT 13/1800Z 29.5N 97.0W 90 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 14/1800Z 34.5N 95.5W 30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 15/1800Z...ABSORBED IN FRONTAL ZONE
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
2100 UTC WED SEP 10 2008
AT 4 PM CDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WESTWARD TO CAMERON
LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
AT 4 PM CDT...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM CAMERON
WESTWARD TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BY FRIDAY.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF KEY WEST TO
THE DRY TORTUGAS.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 86.1W AT 10/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 80NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
50 KT.......150NE 80SE 75SW 110NW.
34 KT.......180NE 150SE 120SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 180SE 120SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 86.1W AT 10/2100Z
AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 85.8W
FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 25.0N 87.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
50 KT...150NE 80SE 75SW 110NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 120SW 180NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 25.6N 89.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT...150NE 100SE 75SW 120NW.
34 KT...200NE 150SE 125SW 200NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 26.2N 91.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT...150NE 100SE 75SW 120NW.
34 KT...200NE 150SE 125SW 200NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 27.0N 94.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT...150NE 100SE 75SW 120NW.
34 KT...200NE 150SE 125SW 200NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 29.5N 97.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 90SW 125NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 34.5N 95.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z...ABSORBED WITHIN FRONTAL ZONE
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.5N 86.1W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 39
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
400 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2008
...WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE GULF COAST...
AT 4 PM CDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WESTWARD TO CAMERON
LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
AT 4 PM CDT...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM CAMERON
WESTWARD TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BY FRIDAY.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF KEY WEST TO
THE DRY TORTUGAS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 400 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.1 WEST OR ABOUT 720 MILES...1155
KM...EAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AND ABOUT 370 MILES...590 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A TURN
BACK TO A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...AND
A MOSTLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
IKE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
IKE IS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 958 MB...28.29 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE COASTS OF CUBA AND IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT. COASTAL STORM
SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE ALONG MUCH OF THE NORTH COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT WILL BE INCREASING ALONG THE
WESTERN GULF COAST AS IKE APPROACHES.
IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12
INCHES OVER WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO
20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND OVER THE EXTREME NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.
REPEATING THE 400 PM CDT POSITION...24.5 N...86.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 700 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 39
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2008
THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA SHOW THAT IKE HAS TWO WELL-DEFINED
WIND MAXIMA OF ROUGHLY EQUAL STRENGTH. THE PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS
OF 93 KT WERE FOUND IN A BAND ABOUT 90 NM EAST OF THE CENTER. A
DROPSONDE WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE CENTER REPORTED LOW-LAYER MEAN
WINDS OF 97 KT...WHICH CORRESPOND TO 82 KT AT THE SURFACE. THE
ADVISORY WINDS ARE SET TO 85 KT ON THIS BASIS. THE LARGE EXPANSE
OF HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXPLAINS THE APPARENT
MISMATCH BETWEEN THE PEAK WINDS AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE.
CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
STRENGTHENING...INCLUDING LIGHT SHEAR AND STRONGLY DIFLUENT
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE OTHER
HAND...RECENT NORTHWARD SHIFTS IN THE TRACK NOW SUGGEST THAT IKE
MAY ENCOUNTER A COOL EDDY IN THE CENTRAL GULF AND MISS A WARM EDDY.
NEVERTHELESS...ALL OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE NOW MAKES IKE A MAJOR
HURRICANE AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS INCREASED SLIGHTLY OVER THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. OTHER THAN INTERNAL EYEWALL DYNAMICS...WHICH
ARE IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST MORE THAN A FEW HOURS IN ADVANCE...I SEE
NO REASON WHY IKE SHOULD WEAKEN APPRECIABLY AS IT MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN GULF.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/7. THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS
BASICALLY UNCHANGED. IKE IS MOVING NORTHWEST TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO...WHICH SHOULD TURN THE TRACK BACK TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST UNTIL IKE APPROACHES A DEEP LAYER TROUGH FORECAST TO
COVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES IN TWO DAYS. ALL GUIDANCE TURNS
IKE NORTHWARD TO VARYING DEGREES WITHIN A DAY OR SO OF PROJECTED
LANDFALL. THERE HAS BEEN A NORTHWARD SHIFT IN SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE...MOST NOTABLY THE GFDL AND GFS. IT IS TO BE EXPECTED
THAT SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE MODEL EVOLUTION OF THE WESTERN TROUGH
AND RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL LEAD TO GUIDANCE FLIP
FLOPS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WITH THAT IN MIND...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED ONLY SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD. IKE IS A VERY
LARGE HURRICANE...AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LARGE AS
IT CROSSES THE GULF OF MEXICO. REGARDLESS OF WHERE THE CENTER
CROSSES THE COAST...THE EFFECTS OF IKE WILL BE FELT OVER A LARGE
AREA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 10/2100Z 24.5N 86.1W 85 KT
12HR VT 11/0600Z 25.0N 87.4W 95 KT
24HR VT 11/1800Z 25.6N 89.3W 105 KT
36HR VT 12/0600Z 26.2N 91.5W 110 KT
48HR VT 12/1800Z 27.0N 94.0W 115 KT
72HR VT 13/1800Z 29.5N 97.0W 90 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 14/1800Z 34.5N 95.5W 30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 15/1800Z...ABSORBED IN FRONTAL ZONE
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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Re: ATL IKE: Advisories
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 39A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
700 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2008
...IKE CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WESTWARD TO EAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF KEY WEST
TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CAMERON WESTWARD TO PORT
MANSFIELD TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA BY FRIDAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 700 PM CDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.3 WEST OR ABOUT 700 MILES...1125
KM...EAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AND ABOUT 345 MILES...555 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A TURN
BACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR EARLY ON
THURSDAY...AND A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE. IKE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY
THURSDAY.
IKE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 947 MB...27.96 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE COASTS OF CUBA AND IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT. COASTAL STORM
SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE ALONG MUCH OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT WILL BE INCREASING ALONG THE
WESTERN GULF COAST AS IKE APPROACHES.
IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12
INCHES OVER WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO
20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
EXTREME SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND OVER THE EXTREME NORTHERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA.
REPEATING THE 700 PM CDT POSITION...24.7 N...86.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1000 PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER KNABB/BERG
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 39A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
700 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2008
...IKE CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WESTWARD TO EAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF KEY WEST
TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CAMERON WESTWARD TO PORT
MANSFIELD TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA BY FRIDAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 700 PM CDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.3 WEST OR ABOUT 700 MILES...1125
KM...EAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AND ABOUT 345 MILES...555 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A TURN
BACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR EARLY ON
THURSDAY...AND A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE. IKE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY
THURSDAY.
IKE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 947 MB...27.96 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE COASTS OF CUBA AND IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT. COASTAL STORM
SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE ALONG MUCH OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT WILL BE INCREASING ALONG THE
WESTERN GULF COAST AS IKE APPROACHES.
IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12
INCHES OVER WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO
20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
EXTREME SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND OVER THE EXTREME NORTHERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA.
REPEATING THE 700 PM CDT POSITION...24.7 N...86.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1000 PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER KNABB/BERG
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Re: ATL IKE: Advisories
HURRICANE IKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 40
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
0300 UTC THU SEP 11 2008
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WEST OF KEY
WEST TO DRY TORTUGAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WESTWARD TO EAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CAMERON LOUISIANA WESTWARD
TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 86.7W AT 11/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 944 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT.......100NE 60SE 30SW 80NW.
50 KT.......150NE 110SE 90SW 140NW.
34 KT.......200NE 150SE 120SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 210SE 240SW 375NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 86.7W AT 11/0300Z
AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 86.3W
FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 25.4N 88.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT...100NE 60SE 30SW 80NW.
50 KT...150NE 110SE 90SW 140NW.
34 KT...200NE 150SE 120SW 180NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 26.0N 90.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 90NE 50SE 50SW 90NW.
50 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 150NW.
34 KT...200NE 140SE 140SW 200NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 26.7N 92.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 90NE 50SE 50SW 90NW.
50 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 150NW.
34 KT...200NE 140SE 140SW 200NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 27.7N 94.6W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 120NW.
34 KT...200NE 140SE 140SW 175NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 31.5N 96.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 75NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 36.0N 93.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z...ABSORBED INTO FRONTAL ZONE
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.9N 86.7W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 40
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1000 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2008
...LARGE HURRICANE IKE SLOWLY HEADED NORTHWESTWARD...
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WEST OF KEY
WEST TO DRY TORTUGAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WESTWARD TO EAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CAMERON LOUISIANA WESTWARD
TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.7 WEST OR ABOUT 675 MILES...
1090 KM...EAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AND ABOUT 325 MILES...525 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A TURN
BACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR EARLY ON
THURSDAY...AND A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DATA FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
ALTHOUGH FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THIS
PERIOD...AND IKE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY.
IKE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY THE NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 944 MB...27.88 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE COAST OF CUBA AND IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT. COASTAL STORM
SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ARE
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ALONG MUCH OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT WILL BE INCREASING ALONG THE
WESTERN GULF COAST AS IKE APPROACHES.
IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12
INCHES OVER WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO
20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
EXTREME SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.
REPEATING THE 1000 PM CDT POSITION...24.9 N...86.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...944 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER KNABB/BERG
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 40
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2008
OVERALL...IKE IS A LARGE CYCLONE...AS DATA FROM BOTH AIR FORCE AND
NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE EXTENT OF WINDS OF
HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE HAS INCREASED...ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. PARADOXICALLY...IKE HAS A VERY SMALL
INNER CORE...AND THE EYE HAS A DIAMETER OF ONLY ABOUT 8 TO 10 N MI.
THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS BEEN STEADILY FALLING...NOW DOWN TO ABOUT
944 MB...BUT THE WINDS HAVE NOT YET RESPONDED. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 85 KT BASED ON RECENT SFMR WIND SPEED RETRIEVALS.
THE SHORT-TERM INTENSITY FORECAST IS CONTINGENT UPON HOW LONG THE
EXTREMELY SMALL INNER CORE SURVIVES. SINCE IT COULD DISINTEGRATE
AT ANY TIME...AND SINCE IKE WILL BE PASSING NEAR OR OVER A COLD
EDDY IN THE CENTRAL GULF DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE HURRICANE
COULD WEAKEN. IF...HOWEVER...THE TENACIOUS INNER CORE REMAINS
INTACT...AND GIVEN THE RECENT PRESSURE FALLS...IKE COULD STRENGTHEN
SOME AS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. BEYOND 24 HOURS...THE
UNDERLYING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WILL INCREASE ALONG THE FORECAST
TRACK...AND IKE WILL REMAIN WITHIN A WEAK WIND SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT...SO MORE ROBUST STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AT 36-48
HOURS. THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN
THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 24 HOURS BUT IS SIMILAR THEREAFTER...AND
IS ROUGHLY A BLEND OF THE HWRF AND GFDL...BUT HIGHER THAN SHIPS AND
LGEM. THE APPARENT WEAKENING BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS IMPLIED BY
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWN BELOW ONLY RESULTS FROM IKE GOING
INLAND...BUT NO WEAKENING TREND IS ACTUALLY ANTICIPATED LEADING UP
TO FINAL LANDFALL.
THE CENTER OF IKE HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD OR 315/6...A
LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...BUT VERY
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE LAST FIX FROM THE NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT SUGGESTS THE TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST COULD
BE STARTING. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE FORECASTS A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS TO THE SOUTH OF A STRONG RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THAT IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD.
IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...ALL OF THE MODELS FORECAST A WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE TO DEVELOP OVER TEXAS AND EVENTUALLY INDUCE A TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH...BUT THEY DO NOT AGREE ON WHEN THAT TURN WILL
OCCUR. THE HWRF IS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND
FORECASTS A STRONGER AND LONGER-LASTING RIDGE THAT TAKES IKE INTO
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BEFORE TURNING NORTH. CONVERSELY...THE GFDL IS
THE RIGHTMOST MODEL WITH A WEAKER RIDGE THAT ALLOWS IKE TO TURN
INTO THE GALVESTON AREA. THE OTHER MODELS ARE IN BETWEEN...AS IS
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST....WHICH IS NOT APPRECIABLY CHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY SINCE THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS BARELY BUDGED.
SINCE THE TIMING OF THE TURN BEFORE LANDFALL IS SO UNCERTAIN AND SO
KEY IN WHERE THE CORE OF IKE COMES ASHORE...AND SINCE IKE WILL BE
ROUNDING THE RIDGE AND NOT GOING IN A STRAIGHT LINE BETWEEN 48 AND
72 HOURS...ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK. EVERYONE IN
THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA HAS ABOUT THE SAME RISK OF HURRICANE
CONDITIONS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 11/0300Z 24.9N 86.7W 85 KT
12HR VT 11/1200Z 25.4N 88.0W 90 KT
24HR VT 12/0000Z 26.0N 90.0W 95 KT
36HR VT 12/1200Z 26.7N 92.4W 100 KT
48HR VT 13/0000Z 27.7N 94.6W 110 KT
72HR VT 14/0000Z 31.5N 96.5W 55 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 15/0000Z 36.0N 93.0W 30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 16/0000Z...ABSORBED
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
0300 UTC THU SEP 11 2008
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WEST OF KEY
WEST TO DRY TORTUGAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WESTWARD TO EAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CAMERON LOUISIANA WESTWARD
TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 86.7W AT 11/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 944 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT.......100NE 60SE 30SW 80NW.
50 KT.......150NE 110SE 90SW 140NW.
34 KT.......200NE 150SE 120SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 210SE 240SW 375NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 86.7W AT 11/0300Z
AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 86.3W
FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 25.4N 88.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT...100NE 60SE 30SW 80NW.
50 KT...150NE 110SE 90SW 140NW.
34 KT...200NE 150SE 120SW 180NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 26.0N 90.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 90NE 50SE 50SW 90NW.
50 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 150NW.
34 KT...200NE 140SE 140SW 200NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 26.7N 92.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 90NE 50SE 50SW 90NW.
50 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 150NW.
34 KT...200NE 140SE 140SW 200NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 27.7N 94.6W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 120NW.
34 KT...200NE 140SE 140SW 175NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 31.5N 96.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 75NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 36.0N 93.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z...ABSORBED INTO FRONTAL ZONE
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.9N 86.7W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 40
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1000 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2008
...LARGE HURRICANE IKE SLOWLY HEADED NORTHWESTWARD...
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WEST OF KEY
WEST TO DRY TORTUGAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WESTWARD TO EAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CAMERON LOUISIANA WESTWARD
TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.7 WEST OR ABOUT 675 MILES...
1090 KM...EAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AND ABOUT 325 MILES...525 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A TURN
BACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR EARLY ON
THURSDAY...AND A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DATA FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
ALTHOUGH FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THIS
PERIOD...AND IKE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY.
IKE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY THE NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 944 MB...27.88 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE COAST OF CUBA AND IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT. COASTAL STORM
SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ARE
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ALONG MUCH OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT WILL BE INCREASING ALONG THE
WESTERN GULF COAST AS IKE APPROACHES.
IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12
INCHES OVER WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO
20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
EXTREME SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.
REPEATING THE 1000 PM CDT POSITION...24.9 N...86.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...944 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER KNABB/BERG
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 40
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2008
OVERALL...IKE IS A LARGE CYCLONE...AS DATA FROM BOTH AIR FORCE AND
NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE EXTENT OF WINDS OF
HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE HAS INCREASED...ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. PARADOXICALLY...IKE HAS A VERY SMALL
INNER CORE...AND THE EYE HAS A DIAMETER OF ONLY ABOUT 8 TO 10 N MI.
THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS BEEN STEADILY FALLING...NOW DOWN TO ABOUT
944 MB...BUT THE WINDS HAVE NOT YET RESPONDED. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 85 KT BASED ON RECENT SFMR WIND SPEED RETRIEVALS.
THE SHORT-TERM INTENSITY FORECAST IS CONTINGENT UPON HOW LONG THE
EXTREMELY SMALL INNER CORE SURVIVES. SINCE IT COULD DISINTEGRATE
AT ANY TIME...AND SINCE IKE WILL BE PASSING NEAR OR OVER A COLD
EDDY IN THE CENTRAL GULF DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE HURRICANE
COULD WEAKEN. IF...HOWEVER...THE TENACIOUS INNER CORE REMAINS
INTACT...AND GIVEN THE RECENT PRESSURE FALLS...IKE COULD STRENGTHEN
SOME AS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. BEYOND 24 HOURS...THE
UNDERLYING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WILL INCREASE ALONG THE FORECAST
TRACK...AND IKE WILL REMAIN WITHIN A WEAK WIND SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT...SO MORE ROBUST STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AT 36-48
HOURS. THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN
THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 24 HOURS BUT IS SIMILAR THEREAFTER...AND
IS ROUGHLY A BLEND OF THE HWRF AND GFDL...BUT HIGHER THAN SHIPS AND
LGEM. THE APPARENT WEAKENING BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS IMPLIED BY
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWN BELOW ONLY RESULTS FROM IKE GOING
INLAND...BUT NO WEAKENING TREND IS ACTUALLY ANTICIPATED LEADING UP
TO FINAL LANDFALL.
THE CENTER OF IKE HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD OR 315/6...A
LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...BUT VERY
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE LAST FIX FROM THE NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT SUGGESTS THE TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST COULD
BE STARTING. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE FORECASTS A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS TO THE SOUTH OF A STRONG RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THAT IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD.
IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...ALL OF THE MODELS FORECAST A WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE TO DEVELOP OVER TEXAS AND EVENTUALLY INDUCE A TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH...BUT THEY DO NOT AGREE ON WHEN THAT TURN WILL
OCCUR. THE HWRF IS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND
FORECASTS A STRONGER AND LONGER-LASTING RIDGE THAT TAKES IKE INTO
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BEFORE TURNING NORTH. CONVERSELY...THE GFDL IS
THE RIGHTMOST MODEL WITH A WEAKER RIDGE THAT ALLOWS IKE TO TURN
INTO THE GALVESTON AREA. THE OTHER MODELS ARE IN BETWEEN...AS IS
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST....WHICH IS NOT APPRECIABLY CHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY SINCE THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS BARELY BUDGED.
SINCE THE TIMING OF THE TURN BEFORE LANDFALL IS SO UNCERTAIN AND SO
KEY IN WHERE THE CORE OF IKE COMES ASHORE...AND SINCE IKE WILL BE
ROUNDING THE RIDGE AND NOT GOING IN A STRAIGHT LINE BETWEEN 48 AND
72 HOURS...ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK. EVERYONE IN
THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA HAS ABOUT THE SAME RISK OF HURRICANE
CONDITIONS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 11/0300Z 24.9N 86.7W 85 KT
12HR VT 11/1200Z 25.4N 88.0W 90 KT
24HR VT 12/0000Z 26.0N 90.0W 95 KT
36HR VT 12/1200Z 26.7N 92.4W 100 KT
48HR VT 13/0000Z 27.7N 94.6W 110 KT
72HR VT 14/0000Z 31.5N 96.5W 55 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 15/0000Z 36.0N 93.0W 30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 16/0000Z...ABSORBED
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
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Brent
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Re: ATL IKE: Advisories
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 40A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
100 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2008
...LARGE HURRICANE IKE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
EAST-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WESTWARD TO EAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CAMERON LOUISIANA WESTWARD
TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 100 AM CDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.2 WEST OR ABOUT 645 MILES...
1040 KM...EAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AND ABOUT 305 MILES...495 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A
GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TODAY AND FRIDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
ALTHOUGH FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THIS
PERIOD...AND IKE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE TODAY OR ON
FRIDAY.
IKE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS WAS 946 MB...27.94 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. ABOVE NORMAL
TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ALONG MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...BUT WILL BE INCREASING ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST AS IKE
APPROACHES.
IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12
INCHES OVER WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO
20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
EXTREME SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.
REPEATING THE 100 AM CDT POSITION...25.0 N...87.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
400 AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BROWN
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 40A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
100 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2008
...LARGE HURRICANE IKE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
EAST-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WESTWARD TO EAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CAMERON LOUISIANA WESTWARD
TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 100 AM CDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.2 WEST OR ABOUT 645 MILES...
1040 KM...EAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AND ABOUT 305 MILES...495 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A
GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TODAY AND FRIDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
ALTHOUGH FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THIS
PERIOD...AND IKE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE TODAY OR ON
FRIDAY.
IKE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS WAS 946 MB...27.94 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. ABOVE NORMAL
TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ALONG MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...BUT WILL BE INCREASING ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST AS IKE
APPROACHES.
IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12
INCHES OVER WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO
20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
EXTREME SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.
REPEATING THE 100 AM CDT POSITION...25.0 N...87.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
400 AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BROWN
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL IKE: Advisories
062
WTNT34 KNHC 111152
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 41A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
700 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2008
...LARGE HURRICANE IKE HEADING TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER WESTWARD TO EAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CAMERON LOUISIANA WESTWARD
TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA BY LATE FRIDAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 700 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.0 WEST OR ABOUT 575 MILES...920
KM...EAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AND ABOUT 270 MILES...435 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...16 KM/HR.
A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TODAY AND FRIDAY. ON THIS TRACK THE
CENTER WILL BE APPROACHING THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST
LATE FRIDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE...AND IT COULD INTENSIFY INTO A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
IKE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 255 MILES...410 KM.
AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORT THAT THE MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. ABOVE NORMAL
TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ALONG MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...BUT WILL BE INCREASING ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST AS IKE
APPROACHES.
IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND THE EXTREME NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.
REPEATING THE 700 AM CDT POSITION...25.3 N...88.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1000 AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
WTNT34 KNHC 111152
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 41A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
700 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2008
...LARGE HURRICANE IKE HEADING TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER WESTWARD TO EAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CAMERON LOUISIANA WESTWARD
TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA BY LATE FRIDAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 700 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.0 WEST OR ABOUT 575 MILES...920
KM...EAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AND ABOUT 270 MILES...435 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...16 KM/HR.
A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TODAY AND FRIDAY. ON THIS TRACK THE
CENTER WILL BE APPROACHING THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST
LATE FRIDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE...AND IT COULD INTENSIFY INTO A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
IKE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 255 MILES...410 KM.
AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORT THAT THE MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. ABOVE NORMAL
TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ALONG MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...BUT WILL BE INCREASING ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST AS IKE
APPROACHES.
IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND THE EXTREME NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.
REPEATING THE 700 AM CDT POSITION...25.3 N...88.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1000 AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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