Arthur's remnents near the BOC

[Sanibel]

Hey! Check out the center relocation -OR- new system forming in EPAC just by the Guatemala/Mexico border. It is either Arthur relocating its center or another system forming in Arthur's remnants.

[Category 5]

Hey! Check out the center relocation -OR- new system forming in EPAC just by the Guatemala/Mexico border. It is either Arthur relocating its center or another system forming in Arthur's remnants.

That would be 91E.

[vaffie]

Using the satellite pictures and the weather conditions that are regularly reported by the city of Villahermosa to the NOAA (http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MMVA.html) and the fact that their wind direction has changed from north to west to south, Google Earth, etc., I've concluded that it is moving to the northwest give or take 10 degrees at a speed of 6-8 mph, and as of 11:30 pm Central Time is at 18.15N, 93.18W the center will reach the Bay of Campeche by 4 am Central Time, just northnorthwest of Cardenas. If you were wondering, if that direction and speed remained exactly the same, it would hit the Mexico coast on Wednesday evening halfway between Veracruz and Tampico.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

There is a upper level AntiCyclone based on the fact that there is 5-15 knot winds with in the area and upper level fanning of the clouds with in the area...Yes there is dry air, but tropical cyclones can and do form with it. It's not good for rapid development of a tropical cyclone. A LLC can and do develop and needs to be watched.

While your point is valid, it has one major flaw in this situation (Which I have been kind enough to color in red). Look at a map of where this thing is at. It doesn't have time for slow development. Looking at these small details isn't wishcasting. Ignoring them is. I've made my point so I have no need to say any further. If you haven't seen or gotten that point, I'm done wasting my time.

Guest what the upper air envirnoment is not to unfavorable shearwise. But lets just say that this could not possibly slip over the BOC in become a Bret, Gret or even Jose with in the next 24 hours. Guest What I've seen it, and would put my knowledge up against yours any day of the freaking week. But lets just say there is no chance at all for it to slip over the BOC and for the nhc to upgrade again like Jose 2005.
My friend I've seen it, and tracked it, and know it can happen. Lets step away from the computer and think for a second; because I do in fact see the dry air. But this is all we can watch at the moment, so its worth watching as is.

No needs to fight over it at all. WE WILL SEE WHAT HAPPENS.

[Derek Ortt]

but who's wishing... ?????
im just observing
im in college now! doing what i do does not hurt me while im here /// what do you do??

I'm basically saying that key facts are being ignored here, seemingly on purpose, as they've been brought up several times and overlooked in an attempt to bring a dead storm back to life. Aka, wishcasting.

And this fall I'll be doing exactly what you're doing, thanks for asking.

Please stop acting like it's wishcasting to think that a LLC that is closed based on surface obs is something that we should forget about and say next about. There is a upper level AntiCyclone based on the fact that there is 5-15 knot winds with in the area and upper level fanning of the clouds with in the area...Yes there is dry air, but tropical cyclones can and do form with it. It's not good for rapid development of a tropical cyclone. A LLC can and do develop and needs to be watched...It is wishcasting to discount this like this.

there is most certainly no upper anti-cyclone. I actually saw a very weak cyclone aloft on the WV this evening. Conditions are quite hostile for redevelopment.

[Sanibel]

91E is over better waters and should weaken Arthur's remnants.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Using the satellite pictures and the weather conditions that are regularly reported by the city of Villahermosa to the NOAA (http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MMVA.html) and the fact that their wind direction has changed from north to west to south, Google Earth, etc., I've concluded that it is moving to the northwest give or take 10 degrees at a speed of 6-8 mph, and as of 11:30 pm Central Time is at 18.15N, 93.18W the center will reach the Bay of Campeche by 4 am Central Time, just northnorthwest of Cardenas. If you were wondering, if that direction and speed remained exactly the same, it would hit the Mexico coast on Wednesday evening halfway between Veracruz and Tampico.

Very good post. I think the LLC is closer to 18.25 north/92.5, but anyways its slowly moving into the BOC.

Also to Derek Ortt, the Anticyclone is centered over 91E. But the 5-15 knot shear is because of it.

[Derek Ortt]

I know theres dry air. But its not impossible for development even with dry air...I'm not saying this will become anything more then maybe a weak Bret like tropical storm.

it is impossible for sustaind convection to form with 20KT of shear and dry air. That is basic parcel theory. Due to the shear, we do not have to modify parcel theory to account for the vertical advection of water vapor

[Derek Ortt]

Using the satellite pictures and the weather conditions that are regularly reported by the city of Villahermosa to the NOAA (http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MMVA.html) and the fact that their wind direction has changed from north to west to south, Google Earth, etc., I've concluded that it is moving to the northwest give or take 10 degrees at a speed of 6-8 mph, and as of 11:30 pm Central Time is at 18.15N, 93.18W the center will reach the Bay of Campeche by 4 am Central Time, just northnorthwest of Cardenas. If you were wondering, if that direction and speed remained exactly the same, it would hit the Mexico coast on Wednesday evening halfway between Veracruz and Tampico.

Very good post. I think the LLC is closer to 18.25 north/92.5, but anyways its slowly moving into the BOC.

Also to Derek Ortt, the Anticyclone is centered over 91E. But the 5-15 knot shear is because of it.

more like 20-25KT based upon the UW shear analysis

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I know theres dry air. But its not impossible for development even with dry air...I'm not saying this will become anything more then maybe a weak Bret like tropical storm.

it is impossible for sustaind convection to form with 20KT of shear and dry air. That is basic parcel theory. Due to the shear, we do not have to modify parcel theory to account for the vertical advection of water vapor

Yeah...I will just drop it. In wait and see what happens.

[Aric Dunn]

Using the satellite pictures and the weather conditions that are regularly reported by the city of Villahermosa to the NOAA (http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MMVA.html) and the fact that their wind direction has changed from north to west to south, Google Earth, etc., I've concluded that it is moving to the northwest give or take 10 degrees at a speed of 6-8 mph, and as of 11:30 pm Central Time is at 18.15N, 93.18W the center will reach the Bay of Campeche by 4 am Central Time, just northnorthwest of Cardenas. If you were wondering, if that direction and speed remained exactly the same, it would hit the Mexico coast on Wednesday evening halfway between Veracruz and Tampico.

Very good post. I think the LLC is closer to 18.25 north/92.5, but anyways its slowly moving into the BOC.

Also to Derek Ortt, the Anticyclone is centered over 91E. But the 5-15 knot shear is because of it.

more like 20-25KT based upon the UW shear analysis

just to be technical its more like 15 to 25 and decreasing..

[Aric Dunn]

here is some more images

[njweather]

Hurakan's image sums it up well:


Forecasting a system like this with such surety is a great way to prepare crow.

[Thunder44]

there is most certainly no upper anti-cyclone. I actually saw a very weak cyclone aloft on the WV this evening. Conditions are quite hostile for redevelopment.

Yeah, Derek. I noticed it yesterday too. It's moving down to the west of Arthur's LLC this morning. Between that and 91E developing, more shear is coming out of the SW. I can see thunderstorms being blown to the NE of the center.

[Thunder44]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. THE REMNANTS OF ARTHUR CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO. THIS ACTIVITY IS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING...AND
REDEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS UNLIKELY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Sanibel]

Edit: The mountain range is still separating Arthur's remnant swirl from 91E. 91 is more robust. Unusual tandem depressions.

[HURAKAN]

Edit: The mountain range is still separating Arthur's remnant swirl from 91E. 91 is more robust. Unusual tandem depressions.

The visible images show that the LLC is near the coast of the southernmost part of the BOC but it's moving westward. Probably in response to the circulation of 91E. No development should be expected since the LLC will remain inland.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Ok it remains inland, but I don't think we should ever totally discount a LLC like some want to do. But chances have gone done for development.

[Category 5]

Ok it remains inland, but I don't think we should ever totally discount a LLC like some want to do. But chances have gone done for development.

I know you must be upset that this isn't going to develop but please don't put words in my mouth. Thank you.

[StormspinnerD2]

Ok it remains inland, but I don't think we should ever totally discount a LLC like some want to do. But chances have gone done for development.

A LLC does not a tropical system make. There are low-level swirls to be found in all regions of the world, but they don't all become tropical cyclones. There can be reasons to discount development of a given system.