NW Australia: Tropical Cyclone Ophelia

[HURAKAN]

Ophelia!!!

[HURAKAN]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 22
Issued at 6:45 am WDT on Sunday, 2 March 2008
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Cape Leveque to Broome
The warning for coastal and island areas between Cockatoo Island to Cape Leveque
has been CANCELLED.

At 6:00 am WDT Tropical Cyclone Ophelia, Category 2 was estimated to be
125 kilometres west of Cape Leveque and
200 kilometres north northwest of Broome and
moving west southwest at 13 kilometres per hour

Tropical Cyclone Ophelia continues to develop off the west Kimberley coast and
is expected to maintain a west southwesterly track.

Gales with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may be experienced in coastal areas
between Cape Leveque and Broome for a period during Sunday morning. The risk of
gales should then ease from the northeast as the system moves away from the
coast.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Ophelia at 6:00 am WDT:
.Centre located near...... 16.2 degrees South 121.8 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 13 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 130 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 980 hectoPascals

FESA - State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present. Communities between Cape Leveque and Broome should listen for the next
advice.

The next advice will be issued by 10:00 am WDT Sunday 02 March.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210


A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

[HURAKAN]

WTXS31 PGTW 012100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (OPHELIA) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z --- NEAR 16.2S 121.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S 121.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 16.6S 120.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 17.0S 119.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 17.5S 117.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 18.0S 115.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
012100Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 121.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (OPHELIA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
573 NM NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS FROM ALL AVAILABLE AGENCIES
SUPPORT THE INITIAL INTENSITY. RECENT ANIMATED METSAT IMAGERY
SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF AN ORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). TC 21S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENER-
ALLY WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD
DUE TO A DEVELOPING LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH
OF THE SYSTEM. TC 21S IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY DUE TO
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
IMPROVING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THE TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
CONSENSUS OF THE NUMERICAL AIDS, WHICH ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WAR-
NINGS AT 020900Z AND 022100Z.
//

NNNN

[HURAKAN]

01/2030 UTC 16.1S 121.8E T3.0/3.0 OPHELIA -- South Indian Ocean

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 01 MAR 2008 Time : 223000 UTC
Lat : 16:21:00 S Lon : 121:26:51 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.2 / 990.6mb/ 49.0kt

6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.0 2.9 3.4 3.4

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.4mb

Center Temp : -20.7C Cloud Region Temp : -46.9C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.71 ARC in LT GRAY

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

45kts-989mb

[HURAKAN]

[G.B.]

IDW24100
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 23
Issued at 10:00 am WDT on Sunday, 2 March 2008
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

The Cyclone WARNING from Cape Leveque to Broome has been cancelled.

At 9:00 am WDT Tropical Cyclone Ophelia, Category 2 was estimated to be
215 kilometres north northwest of Broome and
165 kilometres west of Cape Leveque and
moving west southwest at 14 kilometres per hour

Tropical Cyclone Ophelia continues to develop off the west Kimberley coast and
is expected to maintain a west southwesterly track.

Gales are no longer expected in coastal areas between Cape Leveque and Broome.
Strong winds with squalls are still possible but should ease during today as
Tropical Cyclone Ophelia continues to move further away from the coast.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Ophelia at 9:00 am WDT:
.Centre located near...... 16.2 degrees South 121.4 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 37 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 14 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 130 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 980 hectoPascals

FESA - State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present.

No further advices will be issued for this system unless it moves back towards
the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Information Bulletins will be issued 6 hourly from 4:00pm WDT
Sunday 02 March.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210


A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

[G.B.]

[HURAKAN]

[G.B.]

50kts-985mb

[HURAKAN]

Looking great.

[HURAKAN]

Old image but shows a broad eye trying to develop.

[HURAKAN]

02/0230 UTC 16.3S 121.2E T4.0/4.0 OPHELIA -- South Indian Ocean

Hurricane intensity.

[G.B.]

IDW24000
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 3:50 pm WDT on Sunday, 2 March 2008
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

At 3 pm WDT Tropical Cyclone Ophelia [Category 2] was located near 16.5S 120.7E,
that is 230 km northwest of Broome, and 480 km north northeast of Port Hedland,
moving west southwest at 14 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Ophelia continues to track west southwest off the west
Kimberley coast and does not pose a threat to coastal communities within the
next 48 hours. Ophelia is expected to maintain a west southwesterly track as it
intensifies over the next two days.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued at 10 pm WDT

[G.B.]

[G.B.]

IDW27300
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL SUMMARY: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0707 UTC 02/03/2008
Name: Ophelia
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 16.5S
Longitude: 120.7E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm (37 km)
Movement Towards: west southwest (246 deg)
Speed of Movement: 7 knots (14 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 55 knots (100 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 80 knots (150 km/h)
Central Pressure: 976 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 20 nm (37 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 20 nm (37 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 20 nm (37 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 20 nm (37 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.0/4.0/D0.5/12HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 90 nm (165 km)
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+12: 02/1800: 16.7S 119.1E: 040 (075): 065 (120): 968
+24: 03/0600: 17.1S 117.5E: 060 (110): 075 (140): 960
+36: 03/1800: 17.5S 115.8E: 080 (150): 085 (155): 946
+48: 04/0600: 18.1S 114.0E: 100 (185): 090 (165): 940
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Ophelia is a small system that is likely to be responsive to its environment and
to diurnal trends. It continues to develop and is assigned an FT of 4.0 based on obtaining a
wrap of 1.05 averaged over 3 hours of VIS imagery, and a PAT that agrees.

Shear is low and SSTs are favourable along the forecast track over the next 48 hours so
continued intensification is forecast. There is little variation in the model guidance tracks
with all nearly all guidance indicating a persistent west southwest motion for the next few days under the influence of a mid-level ridge to the south.

Notes:
This product is issued every six hours; the Cyclone Advices (Watches and Warnings) are
usually issued more frequently and contain more useful information for coastal communities.

Time Conversion from UTC to local:
WST add 8 hrs (Add another hour for daylight saving)
CST add 9 hrs 30 min
EST add 10 hrs (Add another hour for daylight saving)
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 02/1300 UTC by Perth TCWC.

[G.B.]

60kts-978mb

[G.B.]

[Chacor]

Looks like a bit of shear.