South Indian Ocean: Filling Depression ex.Kamba (TC 23S)

[Chacor]

I posted that a few posts ago.

[HURAKAN]

:uarrow: I posted that a few posts ago.

Sorry, didn't realize it!

[HURAKAN]

JTWC: 110 knots



WTXS31 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KAMBA) WARNING NR 007
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KAMBA) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 18.1S 78.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1S 78.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 20.5S 78.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 22.9S 77.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 25.0S 76.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 26.7S 76.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 18.7S 78.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (KAMBA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 740 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 23S IS TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST OF
THE SYSTEM. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM VARIOUS REPORTING
AGENCIES INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED A SIGNIFICANT INTEN-
SIFICATION TREND OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS DUE TO LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, FAVORABLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, AND EXCELLENT DUAL CHANNEL OUT-
FLOW. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO NEARLY MAINTAIN INTENSITY OR WEAKEN
ONLY SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST INTRODUCES INCREASING EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. THEREAFTER, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, DECREASING OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT, AND SUPPRESSED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW WILL DRIVE STEADIER
WEAKENING. BY TAU 48, INTERACTION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LATI-
TUDE TROUGH AND PASSAGE OVER COOLER WATER WILL INDUCE THE FIRST
STAGE OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE
TO THE NUMERICAL MODEL CONSENSUSES. THE TAU 24 THROUGH TAU 48
INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN THE STATISTICAL MODEL GUIDANCE TO
REFLECT A MORE PROBABLE WEAKENING TREND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 01200Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z AND 111500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOKWE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

This was the last visible:

[HURAKAN]

Usually you don't see many days like this in the South Indian Ocean.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

Still looking good:

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 315
WTIO30 FMEE 101824 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 16/13/20072008
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (KAMBA)
2.A POSITION 2008/03/10 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.3S / 78.3E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL THREE
DEGREES EAST)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 6.0/6.0 /D 2.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 930 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 100 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 270 SE: 270 SO: 185 NO: 185
50 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 110
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1000
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/03/11 06 UTC: 21.7S/78.0E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP.
CYCL..
24H: 2008/03/11 18 UTC: 24.6S/77.9E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
36H: 2008/03/12 06 UTC: 26.9S/77.9E, MAX WIND=050KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
48H: 2008/03/12 18 UTC: 28.1S/76.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2008/03/13 06 UTC: 29.9S/75.3E, MAX WIND=035KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2008/03/13 18 UTC: 32.5S/74.6E, MAX WIND=035KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=6.0-
NNNN

[Squarethecircle]

Looks like the weakening trend has started - eye is contracting but filling in, convection is weaker.
It is still a very impressive cyclone; certainly so for it's intensification.

[HURAKAN]

Meteo France agrees!!!

ZCZC 197
WTIO30 FMEE 110025
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 17/13/20072008
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (KAMBA)
2.A POSITION 2008/03/11 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.8S / 78.2E
(TWENTY DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL TWO
DEGREES
EAST)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/6.0 /W 1.0/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 934 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 96 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 220 SE: 290 SO: 290 NO: 185
50 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 100
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1000
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/03/11 12 UTC: 23.3S/78.1E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
24H: 2008/03/12 00 UTC: 25.9S/78.6E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
36H: 2008/03/12 12 UTC: 28.5S/79.0E, MAX WIND=035KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
48H: 2008/03/13 00 UTC: 30.0S/77.6E, MAX WIND=035KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2008/03/13 12 UTC: 31.5S/76.1E, MAX WIND=035KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2008/03/14 00 UTC: 32.8S/76.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=5.0+ CI=6.0-
KAMBA BEGINS TO SUFFER FROM COOLER SST AND A LESS FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT
IN THE UPPER LEVEL. SYSTEM SHOULD NOW BEING ON A DEFINITIVELY
WEAKENING
TREND ... EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD START AROUND WEDNESDAY 12.
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST
SCENARIO
AND PRESENT GUIDANCE IS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF ALL NWP TRACKS IN
CLOSE
AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION (DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE TRACKS)=
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

You go up fast, you come down even faster!!!

[HURAKAN]

Not looking that great.

[G.B.]

Still at 90 kts

[G.B.]

ZCZC 076
WTIO30 FMEE 110642
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 18/13/20072008
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (KAMBA)
2.A POSITION 2008/03/11 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.0S / 78.1E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL ONE
DEGREES EAST)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.5 /W 1.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 935 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 95 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 200 SE: 400 SO: 450 NO: 170
50 KT NE: 080 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 080
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1000
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/03/11 18 UTC: 24.4S/78.4E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
24H: 2008/03/12 06 UTC: 27.1S/79.1E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
36H: 2008/03/12 18 UTC: 29.4S/78.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
48H: 2008/03/13 06 UTC: 30.7S/76.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2008/03/13 18 UTC: 32.2S/76.2E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2008/03/14 06 UTC: 32.7S/77.1E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=5.0- AND CI=5.5+
KAMBA BEGINS TO SUFFER FROM COOLER SST AND A LESS FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT
IN THE UPPER LEVEL. SYSTEM SHOULD NOW BEING ON A DEFINITIVELY
WEAKENING
TREND ...
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD START AROUND WEDNESDAY 12.=
NNNN

[wyq614]

I think it's now started to show signs of extratropical transition.

[HURAKAN]

Continues to decrease in organization and intensity.

[Chacor]

WTIO30 FMEE 111221

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 19/13/20072008
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (KAMBA)

2.A POSITION 2008/03/11 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.6S / 78.1E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL ONE
DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/5.0 /W 2.5/18 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 960 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 75 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 150 SE: 400 SO: 450 NO: 150
50 KT NE: 080 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 080

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/03/12 00 UTC: 25.7S/77.9E, MAX WIND=050KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
24H: 2008/03/12 12 UTC: 27.5S/77.9E, MAX WIND=045KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
36H: 2008/03/13 00 UTC: 29.8S/76.1E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
48H: 2008/03/13 12 UTC: 31.8S/75.1E, MAX WIND=035KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2008/03/14 00 UTC: 33.5S/75.1E, MAX WIND=035KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2008/03/14 12 UTC: 33.9S/75.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=3.5+ AND CI=5.0-
SYSTEM IS WEAKENING PROGRESSIVELY OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE COOLER AND
COOLER AND ALSO UNDERGOING AN INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR.
STRONGEST WINDS EXTEND FAR IN THE SOUTH DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.
SYSTEM SHOULD NOW BEING ON A DEFINITIVELY WEAKENING TREND ...

[CrazyC83]

Fortunately it didn't affect land.

[HURAKAN]

Close to extratropical.

[Chacor]

WTIO30 FMEE 111834 CCA
*************** CORRECTIVE **************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 20/13/20072008
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (KAMBA)

2.A POSITION 2008/03/11 AT 1800 UTC :
23.8S / 78.2E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL
TWO
DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/4.5 /W 2.0/18 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 970 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 65 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 120 SE: 400 SO: 450 NO: 100
50 KT NE: 060 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 060

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 450 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/03/12 06 UTC: 25.8S/78.7E, MAX WIND=050KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL.
24H: 2008/03/12 18 UTC: 28.2S/77.9E, MAX WIND=045KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
36H: 2008/03/13 06 UTC: 30.1S/75.8E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
48H: 2008/03/13 18 UTC: 31.7S/75.6E, MAX WIND=035KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2008/03/14 06 UTC: 32.9S/76.5E, MAX WIND=035KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2008/03/14 18 UTC: 33.5S/76.9E, MAX WIND=035KT, EXTRATROPICAL.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=3.0+ AND CI=4.5+

SYSTEM IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE COOLER AND
COOLER (LESS THAN 25 CELSIUS DEGREES FOR THE MOMENT, AND LOWER THAN
23 DEGREES CELSIUS SOUTH OF 30 SOUTH), UNDERGOING ALSO AN INCREASING
NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, WHICH DISORGANIZES AND PUSHSES
THUNDERSTORM CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SOUTHEASTARDS.
THE LLCC IS NOW TOTALLY EXPOSED NORTHWEST OF CONVECTION, AND IS
ELONGATED (SEE 37V CHANNELS OVER SSMI AT 1337Z AND 1453Z).

STRONGEST WINDS EXTEND FAR IN THE SOUTH DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT
WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.
IT SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, WITH A
NON-SYMETRIC STRUCTURE.=