JTWC 03z:
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 14.5N 132.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
TAU 12: 125 kts G 150 kts
WDPN31 PGTW 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 03W WARNING NR 12//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TYPHOON (TY) 03W (RAMMASUN) HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS WITH A 55-KNOT INCREASE IN INTENSITY (65 KNOTS TO 120
KNOTS). OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, TY 03W HAS INTENSIFIED BY 35 KNOTS.
ANIMATED MULTISPECRAL IMAGERY AND A 092335Z SSMIS IMAGE DEPICT COOL-
ING CONVECTIVE TOPS WITHIN A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL AND EXCELLENT CON-
VECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLES. THE
SYSTEM HAS SLOWED SLIGHTLY AND IS TRACKING NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS.
B. TY 03W CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED, MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS EAST.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUT-
FLOW WITH IMPROVING/EXPANDING POLEWARD OUTFLOW DUE TO THE DISSIP-
ATION OF AN UPPER-LOW NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE AND
WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IN 37 GHZ MICRO-
WAVE IMAGERY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF
DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 115 TO 127 KNOTS.
3. FORECAST REASONING
A. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK AND PHILOSOPHY REMAINS CONSISTENT
WITH THE TWO PREVIOUS FORECASTS, HOWEVER, THE FORECAST INTENSITIES
HAVE INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY AND EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ET) IS
NOW FORECAST TO BEGIN NEAR TAU 48.
B. TY 03W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH TAU 36 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
EAST OF THE SYSTEM. AFTER TAU 36, TY 03W IS FORECAST TO TURN
INCREASINGLY NORTHEASTWARD AND TO ACCELERATE UNDER STRONG WESTERLY
FLOW. TY 03W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS
UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH OUTFLOW FURTHER ENHANCED BY A
DEEPENING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA. THEREAFTER,
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH WILL PREVENT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. AFTER TAU 48, PASSAGE
OVER COOLER WATER, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND AN INFLUX
OF DRIER AIR IN THE UPPER AND MID LEVELS WILL CAUSE THE CYCLONE
TO TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO REMAIN TIGHTLY-CLUSTERED THROUGH TAU 72 AND THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT TRACK AS WELL AS THE TIMING OF
THE COMPLETION OF ET NEAR TAU 72.
FORECAST TEAM: DELTA//
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