ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[cheezyWXguy]

Then why mention the 'Hebert Box' in the models thread?

because, he was talking about the GFS, which brought a developed tropical cyclone into the Hebert box.

You missed my point. No worries....

Not to start an arguement or carry one on or something, but I do see your point. You think it is contradictory to say "its too early to talk about a US landfall" and then in another thread, talk about the Hebert Box. Correct me if Im wrong, but it seemed to me that he was only stating the possibility of it getting to the Hebert box, as shown by the GFS.

[Aric Dunn]

we should see this thing go through some pretty rapid organization as it should lift slight wnw as it needs to break off from the itcz. i would say this time tomorrow we should be on the verge of a depression.. as it already has very good low level convergence and a clear surface circulation.. ( not closed yet, does not look like it, but a clear cyclonic circulation is present ).

[cycloneye]

[Emmett_Brown]

Help me out with the Hebert Box... I know that 20n, 60W is usually a benchmark for storms reaching Conus (those below this point have a better chance to affect Conus), but i dont know the dimensions of the "box". How big is this box, and what are it's N,S,E,W boudries?

[RL3AO]

Help me out with the Hebert Box... I know that 20n, 60W is usually a benchmark for storms reaching Conus (those below this point have a better chance to affect Conus), but i dont know the dimensions of the "box". How big is this box, and what are it's N,S,E,W boudries?

Theres two of them.



And its not for CONUS, its for Florida.

[Blown Away]

IMO, 94L looks real good at this rate I wouldn't be surprised to see a TD by Monday.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[RL3AO]

Just a note to add. Large and unorganized systems like this one usually take longer to organize.

[NDG]

Some things to keep in mind when looking at the model guidance.

1. The BAM models are not dynamic. They are a good indication of the CURRENT flow patterns (shallow, medium and deep) but they won't do well if the flow pattern is changing with time. So if a cold front is moving off the east U.S. coast in 6-7 days or if a trof is digging south toward the eastern Caribbean, the BAM models won't see it. They'll just keep moving this system westward in the CURRENT flow.

2. The ECMWF is pretty bad as a tropical model. Not as bad as the ETA/NAM/WRF, but it's not one to trust much

3. The GFS actually isn't too bad, but it does tend to break down the ridge to the north too quickly sometimes, indicating recurvature too soon. Didn't do too badly with Bertha, though.

4. HWRF and GFDL did pretty good with Bertha, indicating recurvature east of Bermuda before the other models.

We were talking about the pattern of development in the office on Friday possibly resembling 1995 in that we may have a big circle of storms in the Atlantic, some clipping the NE Caribbean before turning northward. We'll see.

IMO, the ECMWF, is more useful, after the TC has formed and when they become major storms too.

IMO, the ECM did not do that bad. Yes, it has a problem of being inconsistent with intensity of tropical cyclones, but it showed Bertha stalling out before the HWRF and GFDL ever showed a hint of it.

[kpost]

i have a newbie question. If this develops, will it be as large as it is now or will it contract? it is huge compared to Bertha and if something like this hit land, like Florida, it looks like it would take up the whole state. well lets just hope it does nothing, my brother in law is worried because they will be here to visit in east central Florida on the 20th. they are also stopping in Charleston, SC first. so the NHC's map freaked him out.

[chadtm80]

[cheezyWXguy]

Just a note to add. Large and unorganized systems like this one usually take longer to organize.

Its not really all that disorganized right now. To me, based on visible, there is obvious cyclonic turning, and there looks to be a very loose "CDO" type convection mass over the "center", wherever it may be. Also, I notice a couple of very primitive banding features trying to develop. Now, if the convection begins to consolidate and deepen, we may just have a td on our hands sometime tomorrow.

[RL3AO]

Just a note to add. Large and unorganized systems like this one usually take longer to organize.

Its not really all that disorganized right now. To me, based on visible, there is obvious cyclonic turning, and there looks to be a very loose "CDO" type convection mass over the "center", wherever it may be. Also, I notice a couple of very primitive banding features trying to develop. Now, if the convection begins to consolidate and deepen, we may just have a td on our hands sometime tomorrow.

IMO, that is disorganized.

[Aric Dunn]

Just a note to add. Large and unorganized systems like this one usually take longer to organize.

Its not really all that disorganized right now. To me, based on visible, there is obvious cyclonic turning, and there looks to be a very loose "CDO" type convection mass over the "center", wherever it may be. Also, I notice a couple of very primitive banding features trying to develop. Now, if the convection begins to consolidate and deepen, we may just have a td on our hands sometime tomorrow.

IMO, that is disorganized.

to what bertha of course.. but compared to a developing area of low pressure in the deep tropics .. its pretty good..

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html
If you look at the visible loop, there are signs of cyclonic turning. It's a little disorganized now, but it's getting there.

[Aric Dunn]

the bisggest issue it will have will breaking away from the itcz.. the surface low is there it needs to become more defined and begin to break of

[cheezyWXguy]

IMO, this image doesnt look quite as disorganized..it aint no bertha, thats for sure..lol

edit: oops messed up link...gimme a second
edit again: just look at hurakan's visible loop...its more useful.

[RL3AO]

to what bertha of course.. but compared to a developing area of low pressure in the deep tropics .. its pretty good..

Of course it looks good. I'm just saying I would be surprised if this was a depression at any time tomorrow. It will take until Tuesday or Wednesday IMO.

[drezee]

There's an awful lot of heat associated with that low. it just needs time and we will likely have a large system on our hands. Looks a lot like emily when she first started out...

[RL3AO]

There's an awful lot of heat associated with that low. it just needs time and we will likely have a large system on our hands. Looks a lot like emily when she first started out...

98L when first tagged...later became Emily.

[drezee]

There's an awful lot of heat associated with that low. it just needs time and we will likely have a large system on our hands. Looks a lot like emily when she first started out...

98L when first tagged...later became Emily.

This was a couple of days later. I will try and find an earlier picture. This was basically a tropical cyclone by then.