ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Dean4Storms]

Sorry but 94L has a closed LLC and should be named a TD NOW if for no other reason to be consistant and for shipping. You can't tell me that isn't a TD looking at Sat imagery, it looks better than Fay did when she was named a TS between PR and DR.

[CrazyC83]

Sorry but 94L has a closed LLC and should be named a TD NOW if for no other reason to be consistant and for shipping. You can't tell me that isn't a TD looking at Sat imagery, it looks better than Fay did when she was named a TS between PR and DR.

I agree it is a TD, but there isn't much other than visuals to prove it and the NHC will not upgrade based on visuals for storms with no land threats. They certainly aren't going to send Recon out to 35W so they have to wait for QuikSCAT and Dvorak trends.

[cycloneye]

94L will like the warm waters ahead.Is one of several factors that cause development to take place,but is one of the most important ones.

[GeneratorPower]

It's definately becoming August now.

[KWT]

Yeah the NHC will probably wait till this is practically a TS I suspect given how far east 94L.

[Gustywind]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... &TYPE=ssmi
12,9N 35,2W 25kts 1009 hpa from NRL site

[cheezyWXguy]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?YEAR=2008&MO=08&BASIN=ATL&STORM_NAME=94L.INVEST&PROD=track_vis&PHOT=yes&ARCHIVE=active&NAV=tc&AGE=Latest&SIZE=Thumb&STYLE=tables&AID_DIR=/data/www/atlantic/tropics/microvap/dmsp&TYPE=ssmi
12,9N 35,2W 25kts 1009 hpa from NRL site

Actually, its not even on NRL anymore...whats up with that?? Could it mean theyre getting ready to upgrade? Because it definitely hasnt dissipated.

[RL3AO]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?YEAR=2008&MO=08&BASIN=ATL&STORM_NAME=94L.INVEST&PROD=track_vis&PHOT=yes&ARCHIVE=active&NAV=tc&AGE=Latest&SIZE=Thumb&STYLE=tables&AID_DIR=/data/www/atlantic/tropics/microvap/dmsp&TYPE=ssmi
12,9N 35,2W 25kts 1009 hpa from NRL site

Actually, its not even on NRL anymore...whats up with that?? Could it mean theyre getting ready to upgrade? Because it definitely hasnt dissipated.

No sign from the ATCF file of an upgrade. Its happened before where something temporarily disappears from NRL.

[HURAKAN]

Nothing to indicate upgrade. I don't expect the NHC to jump the gun.

[fwbbreeze]

still on the backup site

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/cgi-bin/tc_home.cgi

[cycloneye]

Its back at the main site:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

[wxman57]

Sorry but 94L has a closed LLC and should be named a TD NOW if for no other reason to be consistant and for shipping. You can't tell me that isn't a TD looking at Sat imagery, it looks better than Fay did when she was named a TS between PR and DR.

Sort of like we could tell Fay was a TD/TS using satellite imagery, right? That is, until recon couldn't find a circulation at the surface. No reason to jump on it now. Let's see if it holds together tomorrow.

[KWT]

They won't upgrade yet anyway given Dvorak is only at 1.0.

don't think you can deny there is a good MLC however!

[curtadams]

94L is still embedded in the ITCZ and therefore not a TD by NHS definitions. At least a day to break free even with vigorous development. Normally I'd expect 2 days from this stage.

[RL3AO]

18z ship report: SW winds (210) at 4kt with a pressure of 1010.7mb at 12.60N, 34.40W

[KWT]

Very interesting report from that ship there, at least suggestive there is something at the surface even if its open.

[OURAGAN]

West wind at Buoy Station 41026 - Forro.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41026

[KWT]

Well thats a pretty good indication of a pretty sharp circulation at the center, surely the NHC must be toying over the idea of an upgrade based on that west wind...

[cheezyWXguy]

94L is still embedded in the ITCZ and therefore not a TD by NHS definitions. At least a day to break free even with vigorous development. Normally I'd expect 2 days from this stage.

That is a big warp in the itcz, if its still attached. And if it can be considered a closed llc, I see no reason why they wont upgrade tomorrow morning after this develops some deep convection during dmax tonight.

[MGC]

I'm guessing that the NHC will upgrade tomorrow morning after the first few visiable satellite pictures come in. Unless 94L falls apart tonight I can't see the NHC upgrading considering the west wind at that bouy.....MGC