Tropical Storm Bertha Model Runs
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Re: Hurricane Bertha Model Runs
Based upon the latest information tonight from the NHC on Bertha would it be safe to say that Bertha will not pose any threat to any part of the US mainland but will just end up becoming a fish storm if the system does manage to skirt by Bermuda?
0 likes
- Hybridstorm_November2001
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 2804
- Joined: Sat Aug 21, 2004 2:50 pm
- Location: SW New Brunswick, Canada
- Contact:
I've noticed some thing over these past six years; BAM tends to be crap in the track deparment.
Last edited by Hybridstorm_November2001 on Mon Jul 07, 2008 7:47 pm, edited 2 times in total.
0 likes
- Hybridstorm_November2001
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 2804
- Joined: Sat Aug 21, 2004 2:50 pm
- Location: SW New Brunswick, Canada
- Contact:
sunnyday wrote:This may be a dumb question, but what is going on with the Bamm predicitons of Bertha's future? It shows the storm heading a lot further south than the other models.
Let us hope.
Last edited by Hybridstorm_November2001 on Mon Jul 07, 2008 7:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139352
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Hurricane Bertha Model Runs
105 kts,952 mbs,moving at 300 degrees at 10kts.
WHXX01 KWBC 080035
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0035 UTC TUE JUL 8 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE BERTHA (AL022008) 20080708 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080708 0000 080708 1200 080709 0000 080709 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.5N 52.3W 21.6N 54.7W 22.6N 56.5W 23.4N 58.4W
BAMD 20.5N 52.3W 21.5N 53.8W 22.5N 55.2W 23.4N 56.7W
BAMM 20.5N 52.3W 21.2N 54.2W 21.9N 56.0W 22.6N 57.7W
LBAR 20.5N 52.3W 21.6N 53.9W 22.7N 55.5W 23.6N 56.9W
SHIP 105KTS 103KTS 97KTS 90KTS
DSHP 105KTS 103KTS 97KTS 90KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080710 0000 080711 0000 080712 0000 080713 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 24.5N 60.0W 26.4N 62.3W 27.1N 63.9W 27.4N 65.5W
BAMD 24.6N 57.9W 26.9N 59.8W 28.5N 61.0W 29.3N 62.7W
BAMM 23.4N 59.3W 25.0N 61.8W 25.6N 63.1W 25.7N 64.5W
LBAR 24.7N 58.1W 26.3N 59.2W 26.9N 59.7W 27.2N 60.3W
SHIP 86KTS 72KTS 59KTS 58KTS
DSHP 86KTS 72KTS 59KTS 58KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 20.5N LONCUR = 52.3W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 19.4N LONM12 = 50.7W DIRM12 = 291DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 18.8N LONM24 = 47.9W
WNDCUR = 105KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 80KT
CENPRS = 952MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 100NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 40NM RD34NW = 100NM
Slowing down and moving 300 degrees.
WHXX01 KWBC 080035
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0035 UTC TUE JUL 8 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE BERTHA (AL022008) 20080708 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080708 0000 080708 1200 080709 0000 080709 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.5N 52.3W 21.6N 54.7W 22.6N 56.5W 23.4N 58.4W
BAMD 20.5N 52.3W 21.5N 53.8W 22.5N 55.2W 23.4N 56.7W
BAMM 20.5N 52.3W 21.2N 54.2W 21.9N 56.0W 22.6N 57.7W
LBAR 20.5N 52.3W 21.6N 53.9W 22.7N 55.5W 23.6N 56.9W
SHIP 105KTS 103KTS 97KTS 90KTS
DSHP 105KTS 103KTS 97KTS 90KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080710 0000 080711 0000 080712 0000 080713 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 24.5N 60.0W 26.4N 62.3W 27.1N 63.9W 27.4N 65.5W
BAMD 24.6N 57.9W 26.9N 59.8W 28.5N 61.0W 29.3N 62.7W
BAMM 23.4N 59.3W 25.0N 61.8W 25.6N 63.1W 25.7N 64.5W
LBAR 24.7N 58.1W 26.3N 59.2W 26.9N 59.7W 27.2N 60.3W
SHIP 86KTS 72KTS 59KTS 58KTS
DSHP 86KTS 72KTS 59KTS 58KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 20.5N LONCUR = 52.3W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 19.4N LONM12 = 50.7W DIRM12 = 291DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 18.8N LONM24 = 47.9W
WNDCUR = 105KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 80KT
CENPRS = 952MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 100NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 40NM RD34NW = 100NM
Slowing down and moving 300 degrees.
0 likes
The BAM models are just a good indicator of wind layer flow. Current heading looks like Bertha would cross 55 W at about 23 N, but if she is done strengthening and starts getting a little more influence from the ridge flow the track could swing left a little.
Any other guesses about direction?
Any other guesses about direction?
0 likes
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139352
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Hurricane Bertha Model Runs
The 00:00 UTC SHIP forecast: Shear appears to not be a huge problem thru 120 hours.
Code: Select all
* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* BERTHA AL022008 07/08/08 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 105 106 103 101 97 90 86 79 72 62 59 57 58
V (KT) LAND 105 106 103 101 97 90 86 79 72 62 59 57 58
V (KT) LGE mod 105 108 106 102 98 91 86 82 78 73 68 64 62
SHEAR (KTS) 17 17 13 8 13 12 18 20 22 26 18 12 13
SHEAR DIR 225 253 272 256 229 256 218 234 220 242 237 297 316
SST (C) 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.9 28.0 27.9 27.6 27.1 26.2
POT. INT. (KT) 124 125 126 128 129 130 131 135 136 134 129 124 114
ADJ. POT. INT. 113 114 116 118 118 117 116 119 117 114 109 105 97
200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.7 -54.8 -54.6 -54.5 -55.0 -54.6 -55.1 -54.8 -54.9 -54.2 -54.4 -54.5
TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 10 9 9 8 7
700-500 MB RH 47 46 50 50 47 45 45 43 44 43 42 47 50
GFS VTEX (KT) 12 13 13 14 14 12 14 13 13 13 14 14 14
850 MB ENV VOR 11 -6 -6 -5 -6 -44 -54 -72 -82 -90 -62 -29 -16
200 MB DIV 8 10 5 -4 -9 11 -1 9 -21 -6 14 10 34
LAND (KM) 1424 1339 1255 1171 1094 994 956 977 1076 1180 1292 1379 1278
LAT (DEG N) 20.5 20.9 21.2 21.8 22.3 23.5 24.6 25.8 27.3 28.5 29.6 30.8 32.3
LONG(DEG W) 52.3 53.2 54.1 55.1 56.1 57.9 59.4 60.7 61.6 62.1 62.2 62.2 62.1
STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 11 10 10 8 9 7 6 5 7 7
HEAT CONTENT 17 19 20 23 25 23 22 26 24 15 8 6 1
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5
T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=68.6)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -4. -6. -10. -17. -25. -32. -38. -42. -46. -50.
VERTICAL SHEAR -2. -5. -6. -8. -9. -8. -7. -5. -4. -3. -1. 2.
PERSISTENCE 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4.
----------------------------------------------------------
SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. -1. -4. -7. -13. -18. -24. -31. -40. -43. -45. -45.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. -2. -4. -8. -15. -19. -26. -33. -43. -46. -48. -47.
** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022008 BERTHA 07/08/08 00 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 25.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 10.8 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 85.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022008 BERTHA 07/08/08 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY
0 likes
Re: Hurricane Bertha Model Runs
Cycloneye, I don't get it. If the SHIPs is forecasting only modest shear why is the BAM intensity falling off from 105 kts to only 58 kts in 120 hrs? And it drops in intensity over every single 12 hr period.
0 likes
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139352
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Hurricane Bertha Model Runs
ronjon wrote:Cycloneye, I don't get it. If the SHIPs is forecasting only modest shear why is the BAM intensity falling off from 105 kts to only 58 kts in 120 hrs? And it drops in intensity over every single 12 hr period.
That is a good question.Lets see if one of our pro mets answer this one.
0 likes
Re: Hurricane Bertha Model Runs
The BAMMS don't forecast intensity. That is the SHIPS intensity forecast.
0 likes
- hurricanefloyd5
- Category 5
- Posts: 1659
- Age: 43
- Joined: Sun May 02, 2004 10:53 am
- Location: Spartanburg
- Contact:
Re:
Derek Ortt wrote:it is best to ask the technical questions in the analysis forum thread on Bertha. That way, the questions can be read more easily and the replies do not get buried as quickly beneath the wobble wars
the models have a better handle on BIG BERTHA now!!!!!!!
0 likes
Re: Hurricane Bertha Model Runs
It looks to me like the GFDL and UKMET have the best handle on Bertha. Their latest runs have her recurving out to sea, east of 60W. That would spare Bermuda, from any significant impact.
0 likes
- gatorcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 23499
- Age: 46
- Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
- Location: Boca Raton, FL
Re: Hurricane Bertha Model Runs
Well Bertha appears to be heading towards the weakness and will more than likely recurve out to sea ultimately (and looks increasingly less of a threat to Bermuda also)
One thing everybody should note about the models is that the GFS, HWRF, and GFDL ultimately handled Bertha the best in the long-run from the get-go albeit the models showed a recurvature that was just a bit east of where it really happened. But the point is that these models forecasted recurvature from day 1 well east of any landmass and did not back down. Let me bring up this brief snippet from the very first NHC discussions:
NHC Archive snippet from the first NHC discussion
MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGING IS STEERING THE STORM TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST...ABOUT 285/8. THIS RIDGING GETS STRONGER DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE A FASTER FORWARD MOTION BY LATE
TOMORROW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK UNTIL
THE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY REACHES A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
ALONG ABOUT 50W-55W AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MODELS
THAT SHOW THE STRONGEST REFLECTION OF THE CYCLONE...SUCH AS THE
GFS/HWRF/GFDL...TURN THE DEPRESSION MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...
Good job NHC yet again
One thing everybody should note about the models is that the GFS, HWRF, and GFDL ultimately handled Bertha the best in the long-run from the get-go albeit the models showed a recurvature that was just a bit east of where it really happened. But the point is that these models forecasted recurvature from day 1 well east of any landmass and did not back down. Let me bring up this brief snippet from the very first NHC discussions:
NHC Archive snippet from the first NHC discussion
MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGING IS STEERING THE STORM TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST...ABOUT 285/8. THIS RIDGING GETS STRONGER DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE A FASTER FORWARD MOTION BY LATE
TOMORROW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK UNTIL
THE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY REACHES A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
ALONG ABOUT 50W-55W AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MODELS
THAT SHOW THE STRONGEST REFLECTION OF THE CYCLONE...SUCH AS THE
GFS/HWRF/GFDL...TURN THE DEPRESSION MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...
Good job NHC yet again
0 likes
Re: Hurricane Bertha Model Runs
From this morning's TCD, regarding the northward turn:
Dr. Ooyama, Dr. Lord and others did a good job of writing this program, for sure...
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS HAVE BEEN CALLING FOR THIS SCENARIO MORE CONSISTENTLY THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
Dr. Ooyama, Dr. Lord and others did a good job of writing this program, for sure...
Last edited by Frank2 on Tue Jul 08, 2008 7:46 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
- gatorcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 23499
- Age: 46
- Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
- Location: Boca Raton, FL
Re: Hurricane Bertha Model Runs
Frank2 wrote:From this morning's TCD, regarding the northward turn:IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS HAVE BEEN CALLING FOR THIS SCENARIO MORE CONSISTENTLY THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
Dr. Ooyama, Dr. Lord and others did a good job of writing this program, for sure...
Absolutely the NHC did a fabulous job. Although several well-respected models including the UKMET and NOGAPS showed a west-runner with Bertha, the NHC did not bite on it
0 likes
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139352
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Hurricane Bertha Model Runs
90 kts,970 mbs067
WHXX01 KWBC 081240
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1240 UTC TUE JUL 8 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE BERTHA (AL022008) 20080708 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080708 1200 080709 0000 080709 1200 080710 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.8N 53.5W 23.0N 55.4W 24.2N 57.2W 25.3N 58.7W
BAMD 21.8N 53.5W 22.8N 54.9W 23.9N 56.3W 25.2N 57.5W
BAMM 21.8N 53.5W 22.7N 55.3W 23.5N 57.0W 24.5N 58.4W
LBAR 21.8N 53.5W 22.9N 54.7W 23.8N 56.2W 24.7N 57.3W
SHIP 90KTS 80KTS 76KTS 72KTS
DSHP 90KTS 80KTS 76KTS 72KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080710 1200 080711 1200 080712 1200 080713 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 26.5N 60.1W 28.1N 62.3W 28.6N 63.5W 29.3N 64.8W
BAMD 26.4N 58.4W 28.6N 59.6W 30.2N 60.4W 32.0N 61.8W
BAMM 25.4N 59.6W 26.7N 61.1W 27.2N 61.7W 28.3N 62.6W
LBAR 25.7N 58.0W 26.5N 58.3W 26.9N 57.8W 28.1N 57.1W
SHIP 67KTS 57KTS 54KTS 51KTS
DSHP 67KTS 57KTS 54KTS 51KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 21.8N LONCUR = 53.5W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 20.6N LONM12 = 52.2W DIRM12 = 315DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 19.4N LONM24 = 50.7W
WNDCUR = 90KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 105KT
CENPRS = 970MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 100NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 40NM RD34NW = 100NM
WHXX01 KWBC 081240
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1240 UTC TUE JUL 8 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE BERTHA (AL022008) 20080708 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080708 1200 080709 0000 080709 1200 080710 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.8N 53.5W 23.0N 55.4W 24.2N 57.2W 25.3N 58.7W
BAMD 21.8N 53.5W 22.8N 54.9W 23.9N 56.3W 25.2N 57.5W
BAMM 21.8N 53.5W 22.7N 55.3W 23.5N 57.0W 24.5N 58.4W
LBAR 21.8N 53.5W 22.9N 54.7W 23.8N 56.2W 24.7N 57.3W
SHIP 90KTS 80KTS 76KTS 72KTS
DSHP 90KTS 80KTS 76KTS 72KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080710 1200 080711 1200 080712 1200 080713 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 26.5N 60.1W 28.1N 62.3W 28.6N 63.5W 29.3N 64.8W
BAMD 26.4N 58.4W 28.6N 59.6W 30.2N 60.4W 32.0N 61.8W
BAMM 25.4N 59.6W 26.7N 61.1W 27.2N 61.7W 28.3N 62.6W
LBAR 25.7N 58.0W 26.5N 58.3W 26.9N 57.8W 28.1N 57.1W
SHIP 67KTS 57KTS 54KTS 51KTS
DSHP 67KTS 57KTS 54KTS 51KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 21.8N LONCUR = 53.5W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 20.6N LONM12 = 52.2W DIRM12 = 315DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 19.4N LONM24 = 50.7W
WNDCUR = 90KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 105KT
CENPRS = 970MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 100NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 40NM RD34NW = 100NM
0 likes
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139352
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Hurricane Bertha Model Runs
12:00 UTC SHIP Forecast:
Code: Select all
* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* BERTHA AL022008 07/08/08 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 90 84 80 78 76 72 67 62 57 55 54 55 51
V (KT) LAND 90 84 80 78 76 72 67 62 57 55 54 55 51
V (KT) LGE mod 90 84 80 78 76 74 72 69 66 61 58 55 54
SHEAR (KTS) 18 12 12 11 12 16 22 22 31 24 15 19 22
SHEAR DIR 251 256 229 246 240 221 244 229 239 230 273 265 279
SST (C) 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.6 27.8 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.5 27.0 26.5
POT. INT. (KT) 125 126 127 129 129 131 132 133 131 132 128 122 116
ADJ. POT. INT. 113 113 115 116 115 115 114 113 111 111 107 102 96
200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.6 -54.8 -54.9 -55.1 -54.6 -55.1 -54.7 -54.9 -54.2 -54.6 -54.4 -54.8
TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 9 10 10 10 9 9 8 7 7
700-500 MB RH 46 49 47 46 46 46 46 45 44 43 44 45 45
GFS VTEX (KT) 14 15 15 13 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 15 16
850 MB ENV VOR -9 -8 -5 -29 -40 -52 -62 -70 -59 -57 -31 -36 -33
200 MB DIV -1 -1 -2 16 16 15 7 -1 -8 -3 16 12 16
LAND (KM) 1331 1280 1234 1188 1150 1134 1171 1236 1304 1398 1515 1430 1353
LAT (DEG N) 21.8 22.4 22.9 23.5 24.1 25.5 26.7 27.7 28.5 29.5 30.7 31.7 32.6
LONG(DEG W) 53.5 54.2 54.9 55.7 56.5 57.9 58.8 59.2 59.3 59.3 59.3 59.0 58.6
STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 9 9 9 8 6 5 4 5 6 5 4
HEAT CONTENT 18 19 23 26 25 23 19 17 15 14 9 5 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6
T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=68.6)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -11. -17. -23. -27. -30. -33. -37.
VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -4. -5. -4. -3. -1. -1.
PERSISTENCE -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4.
----------------------------------------------------------
SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -5. -7. -9. -11. -14. -19. -25. -31. -34. -35. -35. -37.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -6. -10. -12. -14. -18. -23. -28. -33. -35. -36. -35. -39.
** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022008 BERTHA 07/08/08 12 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 24.4 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022008 BERTHA 07/08/08 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY
0 likes
- cheezyWXguy
- Category 5
- Posts: 5556
- Joined: Mon Feb 13, 2006 12:29 am
- Location: Dallas, TX
Re: Hurricane Bertha Model Runs
cycloneye wrote:90 kts,970 mbs067
WHXX01 KWBC 081240
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1240 UTC TUE JUL 8 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE BERTHA (AL022008) 20080708 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080708 1200 080709 0000 080709 1200 080710 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.8N 53.5W 23.0N 55.4W 24.2N 57.2W 25.3N 58.7W
BAMD 21.8N 53.5W 22.8N 54.9W 23.9N 56.3W 25.2N 57.5W
BAMM 21.8N 53.5W 22.7N 55.3W 23.5N 57.0W 24.5N 58.4W
LBAR 21.8N 53.5W 22.9N 54.7W 23.8N 56.2W 24.7N 57.3W
SHIP 90KTS 80KTS 76KTS 72KTS
DSHP 90KTS 80KTS 76KTS 72KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080710 1200 080711 1200 080712 1200 080713 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 26.5N 60.1W 28.1N 62.3W 28.6N 63.5W 29.3N 64.8W
BAMD 26.4N 58.4W 28.6N 59.6W 30.2N 60.4W 32.0N 61.8W
BAMM 25.4N 59.6W 26.7N 61.1W 27.2N 61.7W 28.3N 62.6W
LBAR 25.7N 58.0W 26.5N 58.3W 26.9N 57.8W 28.1N 57.1W
SHIP 67KTS 57KTS 54KTS 51KTS
DSHP 67KTS 57KTS 54KTS 51KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 21.8N LONCUR = 53.5W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 20.6N LONM12 = 52.2W DIRM12 = 315DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 19.4N LONM24 = 50.7W
WNDCUR = 90KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 105KT
CENPRS = 970MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 100NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 40NM RD34NW = 100NM
I cant believe ships even keeps this a hurricane for 12 more hours, let alone 2 days! Bertha should likely be gone by the end of the forecast period.
0 likes
- Hybridstorm_November2001
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 2804
- Joined: Sat Aug 21, 2004 2:50 pm
- Location: SW New Brunswick, Canada
- Contact:
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 14 guests