Tropical Storm Bertha Model Runs
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Re: Hurricane Bertha Model Runs
Review of the 12Z model runs now shows that the UKMET turns toward the NW at the end of its run - like the BAMs. I don't know if this is a trend - have to wait and see but I wouldn't give Bermuda the all clear sign yet. CMC, for what its worth, stalls the storm south of 30N. I did notice that the GFDL, which has insisted on the eastern recurve scenario with no apparent slow down, keeps Bertha a CAT 2 hurricane through its 5 day run - not sure if I buy that given shear at present and forecasted.
https://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pageid=3194,21328260,3194_21169354:3194_21260388:3194_21260861&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL
https://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pageid=3194,21328260,3194_21169354:3194_21260388:3194_21260861&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL
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- HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
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WHXX01 KWBC 081834
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1834 UTC TUE JUL 8 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE BERTHA (AL022008) 20080708 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080708 1800 080709 0600 080709 1800 080710 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 22.4N 54.4W 23.5N 56.5W 24.6N 58.4W 25.6N 60.0W
BAMD 22.4N 54.4W 23.5N 56.0W 24.8N 57.5W 26.1N 58.6W
BAMM 22.4N 54.4W 23.3N 56.2W 24.4N 57.9W 25.4N 59.1W
LBAR 22.4N 54.4W 23.4N 55.7W 24.3N 57.2W 25.3N 58.3W
SHIP 75KTS 63KTS 61KTS 58KTS
DSHP 75KTS 63KTS 61KTS 58KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080710 1800 080711 1800 080712 1800 080713 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 26.5N 61.3W 27.1N 62.7W 26.4N 62.7W 26.6N 61.5W
BAMD 27.4N 59.4W 29.7N 60.3W 30.9N 60.9W 32.0N 61.9W
BAMM 26.4N 60.1W 27.6N 60.9W 27.9N 61.1W 28.7N 61.0W
LBAR 26.3N 59.2W 27.2N 59.8W 27.1N 60.0W 27.1N 60.6W
SHIP 58KTS 55KTS 58KTS 56KTS
DSHP 58KTS 55KTS 58KTS 56KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 22.4N LONCUR = 54.4W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 21.1N LONM12 = 52.9W DIRM12 = 315DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 19.9N LONM24 = 51.6W
WNDCUR = 75KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 105KT
CENPRS = 980MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 120NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 45NM RD34NW = 75NM
$$
NNNN
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1834 UTC TUE JUL 8 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE BERTHA (AL022008) 20080708 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080708 1800 080709 0600 080709 1800 080710 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 22.4N 54.4W 23.5N 56.5W 24.6N 58.4W 25.6N 60.0W
BAMD 22.4N 54.4W 23.5N 56.0W 24.8N 57.5W 26.1N 58.6W
BAMM 22.4N 54.4W 23.3N 56.2W 24.4N 57.9W 25.4N 59.1W
LBAR 22.4N 54.4W 23.4N 55.7W 24.3N 57.2W 25.3N 58.3W
SHIP 75KTS 63KTS 61KTS 58KTS
DSHP 75KTS 63KTS 61KTS 58KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080710 1800 080711 1800 080712 1800 080713 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 26.5N 61.3W 27.1N 62.7W 26.4N 62.7W 26.6N 61.5W
BAMD 27.4N 59.4W 29.7N 60.3W 30.9N 60.9W 32.0N 61.9W
BAMM 26.4N 60.1W 27.6N 60.9W 27.9N 61.1W 28.7N 61.0W
LBAR 26.3N 59.2W 27.2N 59.8W 27.1N 60.0W 27.1N 60.6W
SHIP 58KTS 55KTS 58KTS 56KTS
DSHP 58KTS 55KTS 58KTS 56KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 22.4N LONCUR = 54.4W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 21.1N LONM12 = 52.9W DIRM12 = 315DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 19.9N LONM24 = 51.6W
WNDCUR = 75KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 105KT
CENPRS = 980MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 120NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 45NM RD34NW = 75NM
$$
NNNN
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139347
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Hurricane Bertha Model Runs
The 18:00 UTC SHIP Forecast:
Code: Select all
* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* BERTHA AL022008 07/08/08 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 75 67 63 62 61 58 58 55 55 57 58 59 56
V (KT) LAND 75 67 63 62 61 58 58 55 55 57 58 59 56
V (KT) LGE mod 75 66 62 60 59 60 61 62 61 60 59 58 55
SHEAR (KTS) 11 11 9 8 10 14 10 15 14 19 17 24 24
SHEAR DIR 236 218 247 238 198 223 224 219 209 235 234 252 244
SST (C) 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.7 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.7 27.4 26.9 26.3
POT. INT. (KT) 126 127 129 130 129 131 132 133 133 130 127 121 115
ADJ. POT. INT. 114 114 115 116 115 114 113 112 112 109 106 101 96
200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.8 -54.9 -54.9 -54.5 -54.8 -54.5 -54.4 -53.9 -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -54.3
TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 10 10 10 9 9 8 7 7 7
700-500 MB RH 49 47 44 47 46 44 41 42 38 41 47 52 51
GFS VTEX (KT) 15 15 13 14 15 15 16 16 16 17 18 18 19
850 MB ENV VOR -4 -7 -34 -48 -47 -66 -64 -69 -62 -52 -24 -21 -10
200 MB DIV 6 -3 9 21 31 -3 8 -4 -17 -1 17 4 22
LAND (KM) 1262 1219 1184 1152 1129 1131 1179 1237 1321 1408 1497 1409 1335
LAT (DEG N) 22.4 23.0 23.6 24.2 24.8 26.0 27.0 27.9 28.9 29.8 30.9 31.9 32.9
LONG(DEG W) 54.4 55.1 55.8 56.6 57.3 58.5 59.1 59.5 59.7 59.7 59.5 59.0 58.3
STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 8 7 5 5 5 5 5 6 6
HEAT CONTENT 20 24 25 25 24 24 20 18 16 12 8 4 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 6
T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 614 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.7 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=68.6)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -9. -12. -15. -17. -20. -22.
VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5.
PERSISTENCE -7. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. -12. -9. -5. -2. -1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4.
----------------------------------------------------------
SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -7. -10. -10. -11. -13. -14. -17. -19. -18. -16. -16. -17.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. 0. -1. -1. -2.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -8. -12. -13. -14. -17. -17. -20. -20. -18. -17. -16. -19.
** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022008 BERTHA 07/08/08 18 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -30.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3
D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.9 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.6 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12.3%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022008 BERTHA 07/08/08 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY
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Re: Hurricane Bertha Model Runs
I noticed the GFDL took Bertha west of 60W, on it's 12z run today. So I guess Bermuda will still have to watch it. But it's likely they will be on the weaker west side of storm, if it comes close enough.
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Re: Hurricane Bertha Model Runs
18Z gfs coming in right now currently out to 36 hours
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... el_s.shtml
edit appears slightly west (bertha appers to brush bermuda w/ her weaker side)
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... el_s.shtml
edit appears slightly west (bertha appers to brush bermuda w/ her weaker side)
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139347
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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Re: Hurricane Bertha Model Runs
Hmmm,this is a bit of a left shift from GFDL in this 18z run.It reaches 62.4w,this model hasnt even reached 60w in recent runs.
WHXX04 KWBC 082332
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
HURRICANE BERTHA 02L
INITIAL TIME 18Z JUL 8
DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 22.4 54.4 310./ 8.9
6 23.1 55.0 319./ 9.8
12 23.8 56.2 301./12.5
18 24.4 57.3 295./11.9
24 25.1 58.2 308./10.3
30 25.5 59.1 299./ 9.0
36 26.1 59.7 310./ 8.1
42 26.6 60.3 315./ 7.7
48 27.4 60.8 325./ 9.1
54 28.0 61.3 321./ 7.5
60 28.8 61.8 326./ 8.7
66 29.4 62.2 333./ 6.5
72 30.0 62.4 336./ 6.7
78 30.5 62.4 359./ 4.3
84 30.9 62.3 13./ 4.4
90 31.5 62.0 27./ 6.3
96 32.1 61.7 30./ 6.7
102 32.6 61.3 41./ 6.2
108 33.2 61.2 8./ 6.2
114 34.0 60.9 20./ 8.1
120 34.9 60.6 16./ 9.9
126 36.0 60.2 20./11.4
WHXX04 KWBC 082332
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
HURRICANE BERTHA 02L
INITIAL TIME 18Z JUL 8
DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 22.4 54.4 310./ 8.9
6 23.1 55.0 319./ 9.8
12 23.8 56.2 301./12.5
18 24.4 57.3 295./11.9
24 25.1 58.2 308./10.3
30 25.5 59.1 299./ 9.0
36 26.1 59.7 310./ 8.1
42 26.6 60.3 315./ 7.7
48 27.4 60.8 325./ 9.1
54 28.0 61.3 321./ 7.5
60 28.8 61.8 326./ 8.7
66 29.4 62.2 333./ 6.5
72 30.0 62.4 336./ 6.7
78 30.5 62.4 359./ 4.3
84 30.9 62.3 13./ 4.4
90 31.5 62.0 27./ 6.3
96 32.1 61.7 30./ 6.7
102 32.6 61.3 41./ 6.2
108 33.2 61.2 8./ 6.2
114 34.0 60.9 20./ 8.1
120 34.9 60.6 16./ 9.9
126 36.0 60.2 20./11.4
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139347
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- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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Re: Hurricane Bertha Model Runs
70 kts,985 mbs,moving 305 degrees at 10 kts:
WHXX01 KWBC 090038
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0038 UTC WED JUL 9 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE BERTHA (AL022008) 20080709 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080709 0000 080709 1200 080710 0000 080710 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 22.8N 55.4W 23.8N 57.6W 24.9N 59.5W 25.9N 61.3W
BAMD 22.8N 55.4W 23.9N 57.1W 25.2N 58.6W 26.4N 59.9W
BAMM 22.8N 55.4W 23.6N 57.3W 24.6N 59.0W 25.6N 60.6W
LBAR 22.8N 55.4W 24.0N 56.9W 25.1N 58.4W 26.2N 59.6W
SHIP 70KTS 61KTS 60KTS 60KTS
DSHP 70KTS 61KTS 60KTS 60KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080711 0000 080712 0000 080713 0000 080714 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 26.7N 62.7W 27.5N 64.4W 27.0N 64.9W 27.2N 64.2W
BAMD 27.7N 61.0W 29.9N 62.3W 31.3N 62.8W 33.2N 63.8W
BAMM 26.5N 61.8W 27.8N 63.1W 27.9N 63.4W 28.9N 63.8W
LBAR 27.0N 60.4W 28.0N 61.0W 27.6N 61.4W 27.7N 62.3W
SHIP 61KTS 61KTS 60KTS 57KTS
DSHP 61KTS 61KTS 60KTS 57KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 22.8N LONCUR = 55.4W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 21.8N LONM12 = 53.5W DIRM12 = 313DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 20.6N LONM24 = 52.2W
WNDCUR = 70KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 90KT
CENPRS = 985MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 120NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 45NM RD34NW = 75NM
$$
NNNN
WHXX01 KWBC 090038
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0038 UTC WED JUL 9 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE BERTHA (AL022008) 20080709 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080709 0000 080709 1200 080710 0000 080710 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 22.8N 55.4W 23.8N 57.6W 24.9N 59.5W 25.9N 61.3W
BAMD 22.8N 55.4W 23.9N 57.1W 25.2N 58.6W 26.4N 59.9W
BAMM 22.8N 55.4W 23.6N 57.3W 24.6N 59.0W 25.6N 60.6W
LBAR 22.8N 55.4W 24.0N 56.9W 25.1N 58.4W 26.2N 59.6W
SHIP 70KTS 61KTS 60KTS 60KTS
DSHP 70KTS 61KTS 60KTS 60KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080711 0000 080712 0000 080713 0000 080714 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 26.7N 62.7W 27.5N 64.4W 27.0N 64.9W 27.2N 64.2W
BAMD 27.7N 61.0W 29.9N 62.3W 31.3N 62.8W 33.2N 63.8W
BAMM 26.5N 61.8W 27.8N 63.1W 27.9N 63.4W 28.9N 63.8W
LBAR 27.0N 60.4W 28.0N 61.0W 27.6N 61.4W 27.7N 62.3W
SHIP 61KTS 61KTS 60KTS 57KTS
DSHP 61KTS 61KTS 60KTS 57KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 22.8N LONCUR = 55.4W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 21.8N LONM12 = 53.5W DIRM12 = 313DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 20.6N LONM24 = 52.2W
WNDCUR = 70KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 90KT
CENPRS = 985MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 120NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 45NM RD34NW = 75NM
$$
NNNN
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- cycloneye
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Re: Hurricane Bertha Model Runs
The 00:00 UTC SHIP Forecast. Shear decreases a bit until 84 hours when it increases to over 24 kts.
Code: Select all
* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* BERTHA AL022008 07/09/08 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 70 64 61 61 60 60 61 60 61 62 60 60 57
V (KT) LAND 70 64 61 61 60 60 61 60 61 62 60 60 57
V (KT) LGE mod 70 64 60 59 59 60 62 63 64 64 61 57 53
SHEAR (KTS) 17 12 9 9 8 11 8 13 14 24 26 27 30
SHEAR DIR 231 254 249 189 201 247 211 240 226 256 250 286 270
SST (C) 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.3 26.7 26.0
POT. INT. (KT) 127 128 130 130 130 132 133 133 132 129 125 119 112
ADJ. POT. INT. 115 115 116 115 115 114 113 113 111 108 104 100 93
200 MB T (C) -54.9 -55.3 -55.3 -55.0 -54.7 -55.1 -54.4 -54.7 -54.0 -54.3 -54.1 -54.8 -54.4
TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 10 9 10 9 9 8 7 6 7
700-500 MB RH 47 46 49 51 49 50 43 42 40 44 46 52 52
GFS VTEX (KT) 13 12 13 15 14 15 16 17 18 18 18 19 20
850 MB ENV VOR -8 -35 -47 -53 -60 -70 -78 -71 -70 -44 -31 -22 -38
200 MB DIV 0 16 21 29 0 0 -1 -20 -6 12 -8 24 23
LAND (KM) 1182 1144 1112 1100 1096 1124 1167 1239 1336 1449 1472 1386 1291
LAT (DEG N) 22.8 23.4 23.9 24.6 25.2 26.3 27.2 28.2 29.3 30.3 31.2 32.2 33.3
LONG(DEG W) 55.4 56.1 56.8 57.5 58.1 59.0 59.6 60.0 60.2 59.9 59.3 58.8 58.4
STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 9 9 8 6 5 6 5 5 5 6 5
HEAT CONTENT 24 25 27 24 23 22 20 21 14 10 7 2 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6
T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.5 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=68.6)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. -18.
VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4.
PERSISTENCE -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -9. -7. -4. -2. -1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4.
----------------------------------------------------------
SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -7. -8. -8. -10. -10. -12.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -1. 0. -1. 0. -2.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -6. -9. -9. -10. -10. -9. -10. -9. -8. -10. -10. -13.
** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022008 BERTHA 07/09/08 00 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2
D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.2 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 37.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.6 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12.3%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 7.8%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022008 BERTHA 07/09/08 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY
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- cycloneye
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Re: Hurricane Bertha Model Runs
HWRF shifts west tracking much closer to Bermuda than before.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation
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Re: Hurricane Bertha Model Runs
6z Models initialized winds at 65kts, pressure 987mb. Barely a hurricane now.
300
WHXX01 KWBC 090628
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0628 UTC WED JUL 9 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE BERTHA (AL022008) 20080709 0600 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080709 0600 080709 1800 080710 0600 080710 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 23.2N 56.1W 24.2N 58.3W 25.3N 60.1W 26.2N 61.7W
BAMD 23.2N 56.1W 24.3N 57.9W 25.4N 59.4W 26.6N 60.6W
BAMM 23.2N 56.1W 24.1N 58.0W 25.0N 59.6W 25.9N 61.0W
LBAR 23.2N 56.1W 24.1N 57.4W 25.1N 58.7W 26.2N 59.8W
SHIP 65KTS 64KTS 64KTS 64KTS
DSHP 65KTS 64KTS 64KTS 64KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080711 0600 080712 0600 080713 0600 080714 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 26.8N 63.0W 27.2N 63.8W 26.3N 63.9W 26.1N 62.8W
BAMD 27.8N 61.8W 29.8N 63.1W 30.5N 63.6W 31.3N 64.8W
BAMM 26.7N 62.0W 27.7N 62.9W 27.4N 62.8W 27.8N 63.0W
LBAR 26.9N 60.7W 27.9N 61.5W 28.1N 61.9W 28.5N 62.7W
SHIP 62KTS 58KTS 57KTS 54KTS
DSHP 62KTS 58KTS 57KTS 54KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 23.2N LONCUR = 56.1W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 22.4N LONM12 = 54.4W DIRM12 = 303DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 21.1N LONM24 = 52.9W
WNDCUR = 65KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 75KT
CENPRS = 987MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 120NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 45NM RD34NW = 75NM
$$
NNNN
300
WHXX01 KWBC 090628
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0628 UTC WED JUL 9 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE BERTHA (AL022008) 20080709 0600 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080709 0600 080709 1800 080710 0600 080710 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 23.2N 56.1W 24.2N 58.3W 25.3N 60.1W 26.2N 61.7W
BAMD 23.2N 56.1W 24.3N 57.9W 25.4N 59.4W 26.6N 60.6W
BAMM 23.2N 56.1W 24.1N 58.0W 25.0N 59.6W 25.9N 61.0W
LBAR 23.2N 56.1W 24.1N 57.4W 25.1N 58.7W 26.2N 59.8W
SHIP 65KTS 64KTS 64KTS 64KTS
DSHP 65KTS 64KTS 64KTS 64KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080711 0600 080712 0600 080713 0600 080714 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 26.8N 63.0W 27.2N 63.8W 26.3N 63.9W 26.1N 62.8W
BAMD 27.8N 61.8W 29.8N 63.1W 30.5N 63.6W 31.3N 64.8W
BAMM 26.7N 62.0W 27.7N 62.9W 27.4N 62.8W 27.8N 63.0W
LBAR 26.9N 60.7W 27.9N 61.5W 28.1N 61.9W 28.5N 62.7W
SHIP 62KTS 58KTS 57KTS 54KTS
DSHP 62KTS 58KTS 57KTS 54KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 23.2N LONCUR = 56.1W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 22.4N LONM12 = 54.4W DIRM12 = 303DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 21.1N LONM24 = 52.9W
WNDCUR = 65KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 75KT
CENPRS = 987MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 120NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 45NM RD34NW = 75NM
$$
NNNN
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- cycloneye
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Re: Hurricane Bertha Model Runs
65kts,987 mbs.
WHXX01 KWBC 091249
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1249 UTC WED JUL 9 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE BERTHA (AL022008) 20080709 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080709 1200 080710 0000 080710 1200 080711 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 23.6N 57.0W 24.6N 59.1W 25.7N 60.9W 26.5N 62.5W
BAMD 23.6N 57.0W 24.8N 58.4W 26.0N 59.6W 27.2N 60.6W
BAMM 23.6N 57.0W 24.5N 58.7W 25.5N 60.2W 26.4N 61.4W
LBAR 23.6N 57.0W 24.8N 58.2W 25.8N 59.4W 27.0N 60.2W
SHIP 65KTS 63KTS 63KTS 62KTS
DSHP 65KTS 63KTS 63KTS 62KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080711 1200 080712 1200 080713 1200 080714 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 27.0N 63.7W 27.6N 64.5W 27.2N 65.0W 27.3N 64.6W
BAMD 28.5N 61.5W 30.6N 62.1W 31.4N 61.9W 32.5N 60.9W
BAMM 27.0N 62.4W 27.9N 62.9W 27.7N 63.2W 28.2N 62.4W
LBAR 27.7N 60.9W 28.6N 61.2W 29.1N 61.7W 29.9N 61.9W
SHIP 60KTS 56KTS 52KTS 48KTS
DSHP 60KTS 56KTS 52KTS 48KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 23.6N LONCUR = 57.0W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 22.8N LONM12 = 55.2W DIRM12 = 297DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 21.8N LONM24 = 53.5W
WNDCUR = 65KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 70KT
CENPRS = 987MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 120NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 45NM RD34NW = 90NM
WHXX01 KWBC 091249
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1249 UTC WED JUL 9 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE BERTHA (AL022008) 20080709 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080709 1200 080710 0000 080710 1200 080711 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 23.6N 57.0W 24.6N 59.1W 25.7N 60.9W 26.5N 62.5W
BAMD 23.6N 57.0W 24.8N 58.4W 26.0N 59.6W 27.2N 60.6W
BAMM 23.6N 57.0W 24.5N 58.7W 25.5N 60.2W 26.4N 61.4W
LBAR 23.6N 57.0W 24.8N 58.2W 25.8N 59.4W 27.0N 60.2W
SHIP 65KTS 63KTS 63KTS 62KTS
DSHP 65KTS 63KTS 63KTS 62KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080711 1200 080712 1200 080713 1200 080714 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 27.0N 63.7W 27.6N 64.5W 27.2N 65.0W 27.3N 64.6W
BAMD 28.5N 61.5W 30.6N 62.1W 31.4N 61.9W 32.5N 60.9W
BAMM 27.0N 62.4W 27.9N 62.9W 27.7N 63.2W 28.2N 62.4W
LBAR 27.7N 60.9W 28.6N 61.2W 29.1N 61.7W 29.9N 61.9W
SHIP 60KTS 56KTS 52KTS 48KTS
DSHP 60KTS 56KTS 52KTS 48KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 23.6N LONCUR = 57.0W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 22.8N LONM12 = 55.2W DIRM12 = 297DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 21.8N LONM24 = 53.5W
WNDCUR = 65KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 70KT
CENPRS = 987MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 120NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 45NM RD34NW = 90NM
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- cycloneye
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Re: Hurricane Bertha Model Runs
12z UKMET tracks more closer to Bermuda.
MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC
AND ATLANTIC
GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 09.07.2008
HURRICANE BERTHA ANALYSED POSITION : 24.0N 57.0W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022008
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 09.07.2008 24.0N 57.0W STRONG
00UTC 10.07.2008 24.6N 58.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 10.07.2008 25.7N 59.9W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 11.07.2008 26.8N 60.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.07.2008 27.9N 61.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.07.2008 28.3N 61.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.07.2008 29.1N 61.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.07.2008 29.4N 61.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.07.2008 30.4N 62.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.07.2008 32.1N 62.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.07.2008 34.7N 63.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.07.2008 38.4N 62.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 15.07.2008 45.5N 60.0W EXTRA TROPICAL
MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC
AND ATLANTIC
GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 09.07.2008
HURRICANE BERTHA ANALYSED POSITION : 24.0N 57.0W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022008
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 09.07.2008 24.0N 57.0W STRONG
00UTC 10.07.2008 24.6N 58.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 10.07.2008 25.7N 59.9W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 11.07.2008 26.8N 60.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.07.2008 27.9N 61.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.07.2008 28.3N 61.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.07.2008 29.1N 61.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.07.2008 29.4N 61.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.07.2008 30.4N 62.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.07.2008 32.1N 62.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.07.2008 34.7N 63.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.07.2008 38.4N 62.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 15.07.2008 45.5N 60.0W EXTRA TROPICAL
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Re: Hurricane Bertha Model Runs
12z GFDL tracks just east of the UKMET.
WHXX04 KWBC 091729
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA 02L
INITIAL TIME 12Z JUL 9
DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 23.6 57.0 300./ 9.9
6 24.2 57.8 308./ 9.2
12 24.7 58.4 310./ 7.5
18 25.2 59.2 304./ 9.3
24 25.8 59.9 309./ 8.3
30 26.4 60.5 315./ 8.0
36 26.8 60.9 314./ 5.4
42 27.4 61.3 326./ 6.7
48 28.0 61.8 326./ 8.2
54 28.7 62.2 328./ 7.6
60 29.2 62.4 340./ 5.4
66 29.8 62.5 346./ 6.2
72 30.5 62.4 10./ 6.6
78 31.2 62.0 31./ 8.3
84 31.9 61.5 33./ 8.0
90 32.7 61.0 34./ 8.4
96 33.4 60.6 30./ 8.4
102 34.0 60.3 22./ 6.6
108 34.7 59.9 37./ 7.3
114 35.3 59.7 14./ 6.9
120 36.2 59.5 15./ 9.0
126 37.2 59.1 21./10.4
WHXX04 KWBC 091729
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA 02L
INITIAL TIME 12Z JUL 9
DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 23.6 57.0 300./ 9.9
6 24.2 57.8 308./ 9.2
12 24.7 58.4 310./ 7.5
18 25.2 59.2 304./ 9.3
24 25.8 59.9 309./ 8.3
30 26.4 60.5 315./ 8.0
36 26.8 60.9 314./ 5.4
42 27.4 61.3 326./ 6.7
48 28.0 61.8 326./ 8.2
54 28.7 62.2 328./ 7.6
60 29.2 62.4 340./ 5.4
66 29.8 62.5 346./ 6.2
72 30.5 62.4 10./ 6.6
78 31.2 62.0 31./ 8.3
84 31.9 61.5 33./ 8.0
90 32.7 61.0 34./ 8.4
96 33.4 60.6 30./ 8.4
102 34.0 60.3 22./ 6.6
108 34.7 59.9 37./ 7.3
114 35.3 59.7 14./ 6.9
120 36.2 59.5 15./ 9.0
126 37.2 59.1 21./10.4
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Re: Hurricane Bertha Model Runs
12Z CMC takes a major hurricane very slowly to just east of Bermuda - interesting that it builds strong high pressure to the east of the storm preventing its escape NE into the open Atlantic. Could this storm be a threat to Newfoundland or Nova Scotia eventually?
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2008070912&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2008070912&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation
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- cycloneye
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Re: Hurricane Bertha Model Runs
85 kts,970 mbs at the 18:00 UTC model guidance intensity.
923
WHXX01 KWBC 091843
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1843 UTC WED JUL 9 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE BERTHA (AL022008) 20080709 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080709 1800 080710 0600 080710 1800 080711 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 24.5N 57.8W 25.4N 59.7W 26.2N 61.4W 26.7N 62.9W
BAMD 24.5N 57.8W 25.6N 59.3W 26.8N 60.7W 27.8N 61.8W
BAMM 24.5N 57.8W 25.3N 59.4W 26.2N 60.9W 27.0N 62.1W
LBAR 24.5N 57.8W 25.6N 58.9W 26.6N 59.9W 27.6N 60.6W
SHIP 85KTS 88KTS 87KTS 83KTS
DSHP 85KTS 88KTS 87KTS 83KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080711 1800 080712 1800 080713 1800 080714 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 27.2N 63.7W 27.3N 63.4W 26.7N 61.8W 28.8N 59.3W
BAMD 29.0N 62.7W 31.0N 63.1W 31.7N 63.4W 32.5N 64.1W
BAMM 27.7N 63.0W 28.6N 63.2W 28.5N 62.8W 30.0N 61.7W
LBAR 28.4N 61.2W 29.6N 61.2W 30.3N 61.3W 31.7N 61.1W
SHIP 79KTS 70KTS 59KTS 55KTS
DSHP 79KTS 70KTS 59KTS 55KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 24.5N LONCUR = 57.8W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 23.2N LONM12 = 56.1W DIRM12 = 296DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 22.4N LONM24 = 54.4W
WNDCUR = 85KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 65KT
CENPRS = 974MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 120NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 60NM RD34NW = 90NM
923
WHXX01 KWBC 091843
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1843 UTC WED JUL 9 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE BERTHA (AL022008) 20080709 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080709 1800 080710 0600 080710 1800 080711 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 24.5N 57.8W 25.4N 59.7W 26.2N 61.4W 26.7N 62.9W
BAMD 24.5N 57.8W 25.6N 59.3W 26.8N 60.7W 27.8N 61.8W
BAMM 24.5N 57.8W 25.3N 59.4W 26.2N 60.9W 27.0N 62.1W
LBAR 24.5N 57.8W 25.6N 58.9W 26.6N 59.9W 27.6N 60.6W
SHIP 85KTS 88KTS 87KTS 83KTS
DSHP 85KTS 88KTS 87KTS 83KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080711 1800 080712 1800 080713 1800 080714 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 27.2N 63.7W 27.3N 63.4W 26.7N 61.8W 28.8N 59.3W
BAMD 29.0N 62.7W 31.0N 63.1W 31.7N 63.4W 32.5N 64.1W
BAMM 27.7N 63.0W 28.6N 63.2W 28.5N 62.8W 30.0N 61.7W
LBAR 28.4N 61.2W 29.6N 61.2W 30.3N 61.3W 31.7N 61.1W
SHIP 79KTS 70KTS 59KTS 55KTS
DSHP 79KTS 70KTS 59KTS 55KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 24.5N LONCUR = 57.8W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 23.2N LONM12 = 56.1W DIRM12 = 296DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 22.4N LONM24 = 54.4W
WNDCUR = 85KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 65KT
CENPRS = 974MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 120NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 60NM RD34NW = 90NM
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http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... =Animation
latest NOGAPS has Canada in the crosshairs it appears
latest NOGAPS has Canada in the crosshairs it appears
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Re:
Derek Ortt wrote:http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.cgi?time=2008070912&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation
latest NOGAPS has Canada in the crosshairs it appears
Derek, UKMET shows the same thing as NOGAPS - basically absorbs the storm into a giant eastern Canada vortex.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.cgi?time=2008070912&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation
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