South Pacific Ocean: Invest 96P

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#21 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Feb 10, 2008 10:28 am

To keep it for posterity!!!

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Re: Gulf of Carpentaria: Invest 96P <=> JTWC: Fair

#22 Postby HurricaneRobert » Sun Feb 10, 2008 10:46 am

90 km/h gusts = Category 1 on Australia's scale.
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#23 Postby Chacor » Sun Feb 10, 2008 11:03 am

Not a tropical cyclone, as it isn't over water, which is in the definition of a TC. So it can't be classified.
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#24 Postby Squarethecircle » Sun Feb 10, 2008 12:02 pm

:uarrow: Definition of a TC in their designation, you mean?

They will classify once it hits water, probably.
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#25 Postby KWT » Sun Feb 10, 2008 2:42 pm

Thats really impressive convection nt really surprising its cloud tops are that cold given the system is over landand here is bound to be huge energy to be tapped into for the convection, not seen cloud tops that cold on such a scale too often before as it happens.
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Re: Gulf of Carpentaria: Invest 96P <=> JTWC: Fair

#26 Postby Crostorm » Sun Feb 10, 2008 2:51 pm

IDQ20032
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland



TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
for Damaging Winds and Flash Flooding
For people in the following forecast districts:
Southern Parts of the Peninsula;
Far eastern parts of the Gulf Country;
The Northern Goldfields and Upper Flinders;
Western Parts of the Atherton Tablelands;
The Herbert and Lower Burdekin;
Northern Parts of the Central Highlands, Central Coast and Whitsundays;

Issued at 4:35 am on Monday 11 February 2008

Synoptic situation: At 4 am a 996 hPa monsoon low was located 150 km east of
Normanton and is expected to be located about 110km southwest of Charters Towers
at Midnight tonight.

The low is expected to remain an intense system as it moves towards the
southeast with the likelihood of very heavy rainfall, particularly on its
eastern flank, and locally damaging wind gusts up to 90 km/h in the warning
area.

The State Emergency Service advises that people in the affected area should:

- seek shelter, indoors where possible, and never under trees
- secure outdoor items
- beware of fallen trees and powerlines
- avoid driving, walking or riding through flood waters.


The next warning is due to be issued by 11am Monday EST.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio broadcasts; the Bureau's
website at http://www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 219. The Bureau and State Emergency
Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.
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#27 Postby Coredesat » Sun Feb 10, 2008 3:01 pm

Squarethecircle wrote::uarrow: Definition of a TC in their designation, you mean?

They will classify once it hits water, probably.


It's not a tropical cyclone according to the universal definition of a tropical cyclone. Its center must be over water to be designated according to the standards of both BOM and JTWC.
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#28 Postby Squarethecircle » Sun Feb 10, 2008 3:28 pm

:uarrow: That's odd, since tropical cyclones have existed over land, and they will continue to do so.
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Re: Gulf of Carpentaria: Invest 96P <=> JTWC: Fair

#29 Postby HurricaneRobert » Sun Feb 10, 2008 4:13 pm

They have been calling it a "monsoon low" although this one is actually as strong as their definition of a tropical cyclone, whereas most others in the past were not.
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#30 Postby Coredesat » Sun Feb 10, 2008 4:17 pm

Squarethecircle wrote::uarrow: That's odd, since tropical cyclones have existed over land, and they will continue to do so.


They can move over land, but they have to form over water to be initially classified (unless it is clear the system will move back over water).
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#31 Postby Squarethecircle » Sun Feb 10, 2008 4:19 pm

:uarrow: Ok, that makes a little more sense.
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Re: Gulf of Carpentaria: Invest 96P <=> JTWC: Fair

#32 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Feb 10, 2008 5:50 pm

Without Australia it surely looks like a TC!!!

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Re: Gulf of Carpentaria: Invest 96P <=> JTWC: Fair

#33 Postby Crostorm » Sun Feb 10, 2008 6:49 pm

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#34 Postby Squarethecircle » Sun Feb 10, 2008 6:59 pm

:uarrow: Hehe, now that DOESN'T look like a TC.
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Re: Gulf of Carpentaria: Invest 96P <=> JTWC: Fair

#35 Postby Crostorm » Sun Feb 10, 2008 8:40 pm

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
for Damaging Winds and Flash Flooding
For people in the following forecast districts:
Northern Goldfields and Upper Flinders;
North Tropical Coast and Tablelands;
Herbert and Lower Burdekin;
Central Highlands and Coalfields;
Central Coast and Whitsundays; Capricornia;
Wide Bay and Burnett; Southeast Coast.

Issued at 10:25 am on Monday 11 February 2008

Synoptic situation: At 9 am a 998 hPa monsoon low was located between Croydon
and Georgetown. The low is moving southeast and is expected to be located about
110km southwest of Charters Towers at around midnight tonight, and near Hervey
Bay late on Tuesday night.

The low is expected to remain an intense system as it moves rapidly towards the
southeast with the likelihood of very heavy rainfall, particularly on its
eastern side
. The heaviest falls during the next 24 hours will occur between
Townsville and Rockhampton, extending inland to the Clermont/Emerald area. The
heavier falls will extend southward towards the southeast corner of the state
late on Tuesday.

Locally damaging wind gusts up to 90 km/h are expected with the system,
particularly on the eastern side. Damaging westerly wind gusts can also be
expected on the coastal side of the ranges between Cairns and Townsville.

The threat of severe weather has eased in the Gulf Country and Peninsula
districts. The warning for those districts is cancelled.

The State Emergency Service advises that people in the affected area should:

- seek shelter, indoors where possible, and never under trees.
- secure outdoor items.
- beware of fallen trees and powerlines.
- avoid driving, walking or riding through flood waters.

The next warning is due to be issued by 5pm EST Monday.
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Re: Gulf of Carpentaria: Invest 96P <=> JTWC: Fair

#36 Postby Crostorm » Mon Feb 11, 2008 9:57 am

Image
Image

Look good
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Re: Gulf of Carpentaria: Invest 96P <=> JTWC: Fair

#37 Postby Crostorm » Mon Feb 11, 2008 10:00 am

IDQ20032
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland



TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
for Damaging Winds and Flash Flooding
For people in the following forecast districts:
North Tropical Coast and Tablelands;
Herbert and Lower Burdekin;
Central Highlands and Coalfields;
Central Coast and Whitsundays;
Capricornia;
Wide Bay and Burnett;
Southeast Coast.

Issued at 11:10 pm on Monday 11 February 2008

Synoptic situation: At 10 pm the monsoon trough lay across northern Queensland
with a 997 hPa low located south of Charters Towers. The low is moving southeast
and is expected to be located between Emerald and Rockhampton early Tuesday
morning, and inland from Hervey Bay on Tuesday night.

The low is expected to remain an intense system as it moves rapidly towards the
southeast. Very heavy rainfall is likely, both along the coast and extending
inland to the path of centre of the low. Rainfall rates of up to 100 mm per hour
have been observed in convective bands over inland parts of the Burdekin
district in the past few hours.

Locally damaging wind gusts up to 90 km/h are also expected with the system,
particularly on the eastern side. Damaging westerly wind gusts can also be
expected to develop on the coastal side of the ranges between Cairns and
Townsville on Tuesday morning.

Conditions have eased in the Northern Goldfields and Upper Flinders district and
the warning is now cancelled for this area.

The State Emergency Service advises that people in the affected area should:

- seek shelter, indoors where possible, and never under trees.
- secure outdoor items.
- beware of fallen trees and powerlines.
- avoid driving, walking or riding through flood waters.


The next warning is due to be issued by 5 am EST Tuesday.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio broadcasts; the Bureau's
website at http://www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 219. The Bureau and State Emergency
Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.
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#38 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Feb 11, 2008 12:02 pm

Lots of precipitation:

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Re: Gulf of Carpentaria: Invest 96P <=> JTWC: Fair

#39 Postby Sanibel » Mon Feb 11, 2008 2:48 pm

Could be moving offshore.
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#40 Postby KWT » Mon Feb 11, 2008 3:01 pm

Yeah and it will be interesting to see how it copes with the transition from the very warm land to the warm but cooler waters. Convection should become a little shallower in theory but how the structure develops will be interesting to observe. Right now it does look good!
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