NW Australia: Tropical Cyclone Nicholas (19S)

[Crostorm]

IDW24200
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
Issued at 9:50 am WDT on Sunday, 10 February 2008
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for a developing tropical low for coastal
areas from Mardie to Kalumburu.

At 9:00 am WDT a tropical low was estimated to be over land
60 kilometres south southeast of Kuri Bay and
340 kilometres northeast of Broome and
was stationary.

The low may develop into a tropical cyclone late Monday or Tuesday as it moves
offshore to the west. Gales are not expected in coastal areas on Sunday or
Monday, however, it is possible that gales could develop in coastal areas
between Mardie and Kalumburu on Tuesday.

Details of Tropical Low at 9:00 am WDT:
.Centre located near...... 16.0 degrees South 124.7 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 75 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... stationary
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour near thunderstorms
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 996 hectoPascals

FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present. Communities between Mardie and Kalumburu should listen for the next
advice.

The next advice will be issued by 4:00 pm WDT Sunday 10 February.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210


A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

[Crostorm]

[Chacor]

... Where did THIS come from?!

[HURAKAN]

... Where did THIS come from?!

As usual, an inland LPS that is moving towards the ocean.

[HURAKAN]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA
Issued at 10:05am WDT on Sunday the 10th of February 2008
For the area south of LATITUDE 10 SOUTH between LONGITUDES 110 - 125 EAST

A Cyclone Advice is current for a tropical low near 16.0S 124.7E, please refer
to latest advice. At 9am WDT, another tropical low was near 15.6S 109.2E, that
is 875 kilometres northwest of Exmouth, and was moving northeast at 13
kilometres per hour. This low is expected to move northeast over the next few
days but is not expected to develop into a tropical cyclone.

The likelihood of a tropical cyclone occurring in the region in the next three
days is:
Monday : Moderate
Tuesday : High
Wednesday : High

** NOTE: Development potential is an estimate of the probability of **
** tropical cyclone development within a 24 hour period. **
** LOW = 10% or less MODERATE = 20-40% HIGH = 50% or more **

[Coredesat]

Not sure what the BOM is seeing here:



There isn't much of a circulation of any kind evident on any imagery.

[Crostorm]

IDW24200
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 2
Issued at 3:30 pm WDT on Sunday, 10 February 2008
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WATCH continues for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from
Mardie to Kalumburu.

At 3:00 pm WDT a tropical low was relocated to be
165 kilometres north of Broome and
560 kilometres northeast of Port Hedland and
was near stationary.

The low may develop into a tropical cyclone on Tuesday. Gales are not expected
in coastal areas on Sunday or Monday, however, it is possible that gales could
develop in coastal areas between Mardie and Kalumburu on Tuesday.

Details of Tropical Low at 3:00 pm WDT:
.Centre relocated near...... 16.5 degrees South 122.0 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 110 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... near stationary
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour near thunderstorms
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 996 hectoPascals

FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present. Communities between Mardie and Kalumburu should listen for the next
advice.

The next advice will be issued by 10:00 pm WDT Sunday 10 February.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210


A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

[Coredesat]

Still nothing here worthy of note or even identifiable as a low.





On another note, this is west of 135E, so this should be 97S...NRL screwed up again.

[Crostorm]

IDW24200
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 3
Issued at 9:55 pm WDT on Sunday, 10 February 2008
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WATCH continues for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from
Mardie to Kalumburu.

At 9:00 pm WDT a tropical low was estimated to be
165 kilometres north of Broome and
560 kilometres northeast of Port Hedland and
was near stationary.

The low may develop into a tropical cyclone on Tuesday. Gales are not expected
in coastal areas on Sunday or Monday, however, it is possible that gales could
develop in coastal areas between Mardie and Kalumburu on Tuesday.

Details of Tropical Low at 9:00 pm WDT:
.Centre located near...... 16.5 degrees South 122.0 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 110 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... near stationary
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour near thunderstorms
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 994 hectoPascals

FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present. Communities between Mardie and Kalumburu should listen for the next
advice.

The next advice will be issued by 4:00 am WDT Monday 11 February.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210


A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

[Squarethecircle]

Apparently it should be somewhere near Broome, but there's nothing there but jumbles of convection.

[Crostorm]

Apparently it should be somewhere near Broome, but there's nothing there but jumbles of convection.

Maybe they see something what we cant see

[HURAKAN]

I don't see anything!!!

[Squarethecircle]

Apparently that's true with all the weather services. They have some sort of magic weather-enhancing magnifying glass with which they look over satellite data.

Although sometimes they use them backwards.

[HURAKAN]

There is the low pressure system. Broad but it's there.

I have to confess than when I saw the Quikscat I said to myself, "the flow is anti-cyclonic, that's impossible. Wait, this is the Southern Hemisphere." LOL.

[Crostorm]

IDW24200
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 4
Issued at 4:05 am WDT on Monday, 11 February 2008
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WATCH continues for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from
Mardie to Kalumburu.

At 3:00 am WDT a tropical low was estimated to be
190 kilometres north of Broome and
570 kilometres northeast of Port Hedland and
was near stationary.

The low may develop into a tropical cyclone on Tuesday. Gales are not expected
in coastal areas on Sunday or Monday, however, it is possible that gales could
develop in coastal areas between Mardie and Kalumburu on Tuesday.

Details of Tropical Low at 3:00 am WDT:
.Centre located near...... 16.3 degrees South 122.0 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 110 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... near stationary
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour near thunderstorms
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 996 hectoPascals

FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present. Communities between Mardie and Kalumburu should listen for the next
advice.

The next advice will be issued by 10:00 am WDT Monday 11 February.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210


A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

[HURAKAN]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.8S 122.6E,
APPROXIMATELY 350 NM NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA. RECENT
ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF PRONOUNCED CYCLONIC
TURNING WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. A 101403Z AMSU PASS SHOWS WEAK
CONVECTIVE BANDING TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER.
INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE BASED ON SEVERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
ALONG THE COAST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS
NEAR THE 200 MB SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF FAVORABLE
OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). A SKEW-T FROM NEARBY
BROOME, AUSTRALIA CONFIRMS THE LOW VWS, WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT
THE COLUMN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB.
DUE TO THE CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND THE
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS FAIR.

[Coredesat]

It's not on NRL anymore. It may have been renumbered.

EDIT: Renumbered to 98S. There is something here now.

[Squarethecircle]

Hrmmph. Still looks like randomness.

[Crostorm]

But on BOM is still there

IDW24200
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 5
Issued at 9:45 am WDT on Monday, 11 February 2008
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WATCH continues for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from
Whim Creek to Kalumburu.

At 9:00 am WDT a tropical low was estimated to be
190 kilometres north of Broome and
285 kilometres west southwest of Kuri Bay and
was near stationary.

The low may develop into a tropical cyclone late on Tuesday. Gales are not
expected in coastal areas during Monday, however, it is possible that gales
could develop in coastal areas between Whim Creek and Kalumburu late on Tuesday
or on Wednesday.

Details of Tropical Low at 9:00 am WDT:
.Centre located near...... 16.3 degrees South 122.0 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 110 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... near stationary
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour near thunderstorms
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 996 hectoPascals

FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present. Communities between Whim Creek and Kalumburu should listen for the next
advice.

The next advice will be issued by 4:00 pm WDT Monday 11 February.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210


A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

[Chacor]

IDW24200
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 6
Issued at 3:40 pm WDT on Monday, 11 February 2008
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WATCH continues for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from
Pardoo to Kalumburu. The Cyclone WATCH between Whim Creek and Pardoo has been
cancelled.

At 3:00 pm WDT a tropical low was estimated to be
190 kilometres north of Broome and
285 kilometres west southwest of Kuri Bay and
was near stationary.

The low may develop into a tropical cyclone late on Wednesday. Gales are not
expected in coastal areas during Monday or Tuesday, however, gales could develop
in coastal areas between Pardoo and Kalumburu on Wednesday.

Details of Tropical Low at 3:00 pm WDT:
.Centre located near...... 16.3 degrees South 122.0 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 110 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... near stationary
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour near thunderstorms
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 996 hectoPascals

FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present. Communities between Pardoo and Kalumburu should listen for the next
advice.

The next advice will be issued by 10:00 pm WDT Monday 11 February.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210


A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone