NW Australia: Tropical Cyclone Ophelia

[HURAKAN]

Going down fast!

[HURAKAN]

Ophelia going down faster than Saddam Hussein the day of his execution.

[G.B.]

IDW27300
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL SUMMARY: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0046 UTC 05/03/2008
Name: Ophelia
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 19.0S
Longitude: 111.2E
Location Accuracy: within 25 nm (46 km)
Movement Towards: southwest (235 deg)
Speed of Movement: 10 knots (18 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots (95 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots (130 km/h)
Central Pressure: 982 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 100 nm (185 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 100 nm (185 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 20 nm (37 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 20 nm (37 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 20 nm (37 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 20 nm (37 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm (19 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3/5/W0.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm (220 km)
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+12: 05/1200: 20.2S 109.6E: 045 (085): 045 (085): 986
+24: 06/0000: 21.1S 108.2E: 070 (130): 035 (065): 992
+36: 06/1200: 22.1S 107.2E: 095 (175): 030 (055): 996
+48: 07/0000: 22.6S 106.4E: 120 (220): 025 (045): 998
REMARKS:
After convection improved for a period overnight, the small Ophelia seems to be again
responding to N/NW shear.
Dvorak analysis: FT of 3.0 based on shear pattern (1/3 into DG but discretion used for
DT=3.0) and supported by MET with CI held at 3.5.
Ophelia is now beginning to move over cooler waters and combined with increasing shear,
sustained weakening can be expected.

Confidence in a continuing SW track remains high for the next 24 hours, although the steering
layer should lower with weakening and the LLCC will eventually track on a more westerly course.

Notes:
This product is issued every six hours; the Cyclone Advices (Watches and Warnings) are
usually issued more frequently and contain more useful information for coastal communities.

Time Conversion from UTC to local:
WST add 8 hrs (Add another hour for daylight saving)
CST add 9 hrs 30 min
EST add 10 hrs (Add another hour for daylight saving)
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 05/0700 UTC by Perth TCWC.

[Squarethecircle]

0_o

I think it's coming back.

[HURAKAN]

Looking much better.

[G.B.]

Yippee

[Crostorm]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 05 MAR 2008 Time : 063000 UTC
Lat : 19:28:15 S Lon : 110:13:15 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.1 / 991.0mb/ 47.0kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.8 2.8 2.5 2.5

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.4mb

Center Temp : -35.6C Cloud Region Temp : -43.8C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.33 ARC in LT GRAY
Maximum CURVED BAND with 0.36 ARC in LT GRAY
at Lat: 20:04:11 S Lon: 110:49:11 E

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[Crostorm]

[G.B.]

IDW27300
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL SUMMARY: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0012 UTC 07/03/2008
Name: Ophelia
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 25.1S
Longitude: 110.4E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm (37 km)
Movement Towards: southeast (132 deg)
Speed of Movement: 7 knots (12 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots (55 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots (85 km/h)
Central Pressure: 1000 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T1.5/2.5/W0.5/12HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1010 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm (220 km)
Storm Depth: Shallow
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+12: : : : :
+24: : : : :
+36: : : : :
+48: : : : :
REMARKS:
The combination of NW shear (>20 knots) and cooler sea surface temperatures have resulted
in the death of Ophelia overnight. Although the 10UTC Quickscat showed some area of gales in southern quadrants the 14UTC ASCAT pass confirmed Dvorak estimates of below cyclone
intensity.

Dvorak: FT=1.5 CI=2.5. Convection may maintain 25-30 knots in southern quadrants today.


Notes:
This product is issued every six hours; the Cyclone Advices (Watches and Warnings) are
usually issued more frequently and contain more useful information for coastal communities.

Time Conversion from UTC to local:
WST add 8 hrs (Add another hour for daylight saving)
CST add 9 hrs 30 min
EST add 10 hrs (Add another hour for daylight saving)
==
No further bulletins are expected to be issued for this event.

[HURAKAN]

Bye Ophelia. Nothing worth mentioning of your existance!!!