Mozambique Channel: Moderate Tropical Storm Jokwe (TC 22S)

[HURAKAN]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.6S 67.5E,
APPROXIMATELY 305 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. RECENT
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS AN INCREASINGLY CONSOLIDATED,
BUT BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). RECENT MICROWAVE
IMAGERY DEPICTS WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING BEGINNING TO FORM ALONG
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DISTURBANCE. A 010157Z QUIKSCAT
IMAGE SHOWS 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CIRCULATION.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS IN AN AREA WITH
LOW TO MODERATE WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO THE
IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, THE THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS POOR.

[x-y-no]

Huh ... this reads kind of strangely:

DUE TO THE
IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, THE THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS POOR.

I guess "poor" is a step up from what it was before.

[HURAKAN]

I guess before "Poor" there wasn't a LLC.

[HURAKAN]

Not much improvement.

[HURAKAN]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.6S
67.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.1S 65.4E, APPROXIMATELY 435 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. RECENT METSAT IMAGERY DEPICTS AN INCR-
EASINGLY CONSOLIDATED, BUT BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC), HOWEVER CONVECTION HAS WANED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. SUR-
FACE OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETRY DATA SHOW 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CIRCULATION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THAT THE LLCC IS IN AN AREA WITH MODERATE WIND SHEAR AND GOOD
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.

[HURAKAN]

Looking a little better.

[HURAKAN]

Looking nice!

[KWT]

Yeah its got a nice structure to it, just depends whether it can keep that convection for long enough though, if it can hold onto that shape then its got a fair chance.

[HURAKAN]

It was pretty!!!

[Crostorm]

[HURAKAN]

Doing better!!

04/0230 UTC 12.0S 57.5E T2.0/2.0 97S -- South Indian Ocean

[HURAKAN]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.4S
60.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.1S 59.8E, APPROXIMATELY 785 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. RECENT METSAT IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH A NEWLY DEVELOPED
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) FEATURE. AN INCREASE IN SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW CORRESPOND WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
CDO. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS IN AN AREA WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.

[gigabyte89]

[Crostorm]

[HURAKAN]

04/1430 UTC 11.6S 56.3E T2.0/2.0 97S -- South Indian Ocean

No word from Meteo France.

[gigabyte89]

Eye is visible


2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.4S 55.4E,
APPROXIMATELY 670 NM NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. RECENT
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION
PERSISTING ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ALSO EVIDENT IN A 041013Z AMSR-E MICROWAVE
IMAGE. THE LLCC LIES NORTH OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA
OF MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB.
BASED ON THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SIGNATURE AND INCREASING DEEP
CONVECTION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 051630Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

There is no eye or eyewall for that matter!

[HURAKAN]

Mtotec calling this one "NR 12." We should hear from Meteo France pretty soon.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

04/1900 UTC 11.9S 53.9E T2.5/2.5 97S -- South Indian Ocean