South Indian Ocean: Filling Depression ex.Kamba (TC 23S)

[G.B.]

IDW10900
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR THE CENTRAL INDIAN OCEAN
Issued at 12:11pm WDT on Tuesday the 4th of March 2008
For the area south of LATITUDE 10 SOUTH between LONGITUDES 90 - 110 EAST

There are no significant tropical lows currently in the region. Tropical Cyclone
Ophelia, located near 17.3S 114.2E at 11am WDT and moving steadily to the west
southwest, is likely to cross 110E during Wednesday. By this time it is likely
to be weakening and on Thursday it is expected to weaken below cyclone
intensity.
The monsoon trough is becoming more active near 10S and west of 100E. Although
model guidance suggests that a tropical low may develop in the vicinity of 10S
090E during Wednesday, it is likely to be steered quickly to the west and be out
of the region by Thursday or Friday.
The likelihood of a tropical cyclone occurring in the next three days is:
Wednesday : High
Thursday : High
Friday : Low

** NOTE: Development potential is an estimate of the probability of **
** tropical cyclone development within a 24 hour period. **
** LOW = 10% or less MODERATE = 20-40% HIGH = 50% or more **

[Chacor]

The likelihood is skewed by Ophelia. While Ophelia exists, the likelihood will always be high (100%).

[G.B.]

BoM were suggesting that a Tropical Low may develop by today, which it has. They further stated that it would move quickly west and be out of the area by Thursday or Friday. Hence the likelihood of a cyclone developing by Friday was stated as LOW. At that time this system would be west of 90E, and therefore out of BoM's area of responsibility. Would this then become Meteo France's responsibility

The monsoon trough is becoming more active near 10S and west of 100E. Although
model guidance suggests that a tropical low may develop in the vicinity of 10S
090E during Wednesday, it is likely to be steered quickly to the west and be out
of the region by Thursday or Friday.
The likelihood of a tropical cyclone occurring in the next three days is:
Wednesday : High
Thursday : High
Friday : Low

[Chacor]

Yes, it would move into Meteo France's responsibility. The point I was making is that the likelihood is for a TC occurring (not a TC developing or a Tropical Low occurring). Therefore while Ophelia is still active, a TC would be occurring in the area, thus making the likelihood high (100%).

Therefore whether or not they expect this TL to develop into a TC before it moves out of their area isn't clear, as Ophelia will skew the likelihood to high.

[G.B.]

Thanks Chacor

Doesn't look very good at the moment any way

[wyq614]

Australia has already forecasted the existence of 99S three days ago.

[G.B.]

Gone from 15 to 25 kts in the last couple of hours

[HURAKAN]

06/1430 UTC 12.4S 90.2E T1.5/1.5 99S -- South Indian Ocean

[HURAKAN]

Looking better.

[HURAKAN]

06/1900 UTC 11.9S 89.7E T1.5/1.5 99S -- South Indian Ocean

[HURAKAN]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.5S 90.7E,
APPROXIMATELY 1115 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. RECENT METSAT
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN INCREASINGLY CONSOLIDATED, BUT BROAD
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION TO THE
WEST OF THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC. THE LLCC IS CONFIRMED BY
SCATTEROMETRY OBSERVATIONS WHICH SHOW 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS ASS-
OCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THAT THE LLCC IS IN AN AREA WITH LOW TO MODERATE WIND SHEAR AND
GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE EST-
IMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMA-
TED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION OF THE
LLCC, AND MORE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 493
WTIO30 FMEE 062354
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/13/20072008
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 13
2.A POSITION 2008/03/07 AT 0000 UTC :
12.3S / 89.0E
(TWELVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL ZERO
DEGREES
EAST)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 650 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/03/07 12 UTC: 12.4S/87.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2008/03/08 00 UTC: 12.6S/86.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
36H: 2008/03/08 12 UTC: 13.1S/85.3E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
48H: 2008/03/09 00 UTC: 13.8S/83.7E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
60H: 2008/03/09 12 UTC: 14.5S/81.6E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
72H: 2008/03/10 00 UTC: 15.7S/79.6E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE LLCC IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED DUE TO AN IMPORTANT EASTWARD VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR GENERATED BY THE RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST.
THE MSLP IS ESTMATED ACCORDING TO THE 53581 BUOY DATA.
THE LOCATION OF THE LLCCC IS ESTIMATED BY EXTRPOLATION OF THE
LOCATION
OVER THE MICRO-WAVE IMAGERIES AT 1912Z (AQUA), 1827Z (TRMM), 1558Z
(METOP
).
THIS SYETEM SHOULD TRACK GLOBALLY SOUTHWESTWARDS OVER A PARABOLIC
TRACK
ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A STRONG AND STATIONNARY MID-LEVEL RIDGE.
THE VERTICALWINDSHEAR SHOULD WEAKEN ON AND BEYOND THE 08, ALLOWING A
CLEAR INTENSIFICATION.=
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 492
WTIO20 FMEE 062353
SECURITE
WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 07/03/2008
AT
0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 001/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 07/03/2008 AT 0000 UTC.
PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 13 1000 HPA
POSITION: 12.3S / 89.0E
(TWELVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL ZERO
DEGREES
EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 6 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS UP TO 200NM FROM THE CENTER ONLY IN THE
EASTERN
SECTOR.
CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25KT AND ROUGH SEAS.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2008/03/07 AT 12 UTC:
12.4S / 87.9E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
24H, VALID 2008/03/08 AT 00 UTC:
12.6S / 86.8E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE LLCC IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED DUE TO AN IMPORTANT EASTWARD VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR GENERATED BY THE RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST.
THE MSLP IS ESTMATED ACCORDING TO THE 53581 BUOY DATA.
THE LOCATION OF THE LLCCC IS ESTIMATED BY EXTRPOLATION OF THE
LOCATION
OVER THE MICRO-WAVE IMAGERIES AT 1912Z (AQUA), 1827Z (TRMM), 1558Z
(METOP
).
THIS SYETEM SHOULD TRACK GLOBALLY SOUTHWESTWARDS OVER A PARABOLIC
TRACK
ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A STRONG AND STATIONNARY MID-LEVEL RIDGE.
THE VERTICALWINDSHEAR SHOULD WEAKEN ON AND BEYOND THE 08, ALLOWING A
CLEAR INTENSIFICATION.=
NNNN

[Chacor]

WTXS21 PGTW 070200
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
115 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.5S 89.1E TO 12.6S 84.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 070130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.5S 88.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.5S
90.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.5S 88.7E, APPROXIMATELY 1100 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. RECENT METSAT IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CON-
VECTION BUILDING TO THE WEST OF AN INCREASINGLY CONSOLIDATED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE LLCC IS CONFIRMED BY SCATTER-
OMETRY OBSERVATIONS WHICH SHOW 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CIRCULATION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS IN
A REGION OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DE-
CREASE OVER THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS. GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS PROVIDING AN AMPLE OUTFLOW CHANNEL
FOR THE DISTURBANCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1001 MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, IMPROVING
CONVECTION AND MORE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
080200Z.
//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

07/0230 UTC 11.9S 88.5E T2.0/2.0 99S -- South Indian Ocean

[Chacor]

WTIO30 FMEE 070624

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 2/13/20072008
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 13

2.A POSITION 2008/03/07 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.3S / 88.4E
(TWELVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/03/07 18 UTC: 12.6S/87.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2008/03/08 06 UTC: 12.9S/85.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
36H: 2008/03/08 18 UTC: 13.3S/84.6E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
48H: 2008/03/09 06 UTC: 13.8S/82.8E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
60H: 2008/03/09 18 UTC: 14.8S/80.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
72H: 2008/03/10 06 UTC: 16.2S/78.6E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0+

THE LLCC IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED DUE TO AN IMPORTANT EASTERLY VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR GENERATED BY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST.
THE MSLP IS ESTMATED ACCORDING TO THE 53581 BUOY DATA.
THE LOCATION OF THE LLCCC IS ESTIMATED PARTLY THANKS TO MICRO-WAVE DATA
F16 07/0128Z

THIS SYETEM SHOULD TRACK GLOBALLY SOUTHWESTWARDS OVER A PARABOLIC TRACK
ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A STRONG AND STATIONNARY MID-LEVEL RIDGE.

THE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR SHOULD WEAKEN BEYOND THE 08, ALLOWING A QUICKER
INTENSIFICATION.

[HURAKAN]

Looking good.

[HURAKAN]

35kts-996mb

23S should be here pretty soon.

[Chacor]

WTIO30 FMEE 071210

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 3/13/20072008
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13

2.A POSITION 2008/03/07 AT 1200 UTC :
11.8S / 86.7E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 040 SE: 200 SO: 200 NO: 040

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/03/08 00 UTC: 12.0S/86.0E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
24H: 2008/03/08 12 UTC: 12.4S/85.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
36H: 2008/03/09 00 UTC: 13.0S/83.5E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
48H: 2008/03/09 12 UTC: 14.0S/81.4E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2008/03/10 00 UTC: 15.4S/79.3E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
72H: 2008/03/10 12 UTC: 17.7S/77.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.5

THE LLCC IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED DUE TO AN EASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR
GENERATED BY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED IN THE SOUTHEAST.
THE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR SHOULD WEAKEN IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 NEXT HOURS,
ALLOWING A QUICKER INTENSIFICATION.
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD GLOBALLY TRACK ON THE NORTHERN THEN NORTHWESTERN EDGE
OF A STRONG AND STATIONARY UPPER LEVER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST SCENARIO.