SW Indian Ocean: Tropical Depression ex.Lola (TC 25S)

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 312
WTIO30 FMEE 221204 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 7/14/20072008
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 14 (LOLA)
2.A POSITION 2008/03/22 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.1S / 58.5E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL FIVE
DEGREES
EAST)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /S
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 050 SE: 070 SO: 100 NO: 060
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/03/23 00 UTC: 16.3S/57.4E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
24H: 2008/03/23 12 UTC: 16.5S/56.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
36H: 2008/03/24 00 UTC: 16.5S/55.8E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
48H: 2008/03/24 12 UTC: 16.3S/55.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
60H: 2008/03/25 00 UTC: 16.3S/54.5E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
72H: 2008/03/25 12 UTC: 16.6S/54.0E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=2.0. CI=2.5+
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

WTXS31 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LOLA) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 16.1S 58.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S 58.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 16.4S 57.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 16.3S 56.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 16.0S 54.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 15.8S 54.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 58.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25S (LOLA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 345 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. TC 25S IS TRACKING TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE LOW TO
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE INDUCED BY A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD, A PORTION
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUIDLING IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH TO THE
WEST OF THE STORM WILL INFLUENCE STORM MOTION, INDUCING AN EQUATOR-
WARD COMPONENT IN THE STORM TRACK. OVERALL STORM MOTION WILL REMAIN
SLOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE WEAKENED STEERING FLOW.
TC 25S HAS INTENSIFIED ONLY SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS UNDER
THE COMPETING INFLUENCES OF FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND UNFAVOR-
ABLE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INDUCED BY THE PERIPHERAL
FLOW OF AN UPPER-LEVEL, MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED TO THE SOUTH-
EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). RECENT MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 220328Z TRMM PASS SHOW THAT THE NORTHEASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC HAS BECOME PARTIALLY-EXPOSED IN RESPONSE TO
THIS SHEAR. THE STORM SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY IN RESPONSE
TO GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LESS-THAN-FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
AND MARGINAL OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE
CLOSE TO THEIR RESPECTIVE NUMERICAL AND STATISTICAL MODEL CONSENSUSES.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 222100Z AND 230900Z.//

[HURAKAN]

45kts-989mb

[P.K.]

WTIO30 FMEE 221819

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 8/14/20072008
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14 (EX-LOLA)

2.A POSITION 2008/03/22 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.9S / 58.0E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/2.5 /W 1.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: SE: SO: 200 NO:

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/03/23 06 UTC: 16.0S/57.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
24H: 2008/03/23 18 UTC: 16.1S/56.1E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
36H: 2008/03/24 06 UTC: 16.0S/55.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
48H: 2008/03/24 18 UTC: 16.0S/54.7E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
60H: 2008/03/25 06 UTC: 16.3S/54.1E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
72H: 2008/03/25 18 UTC: 17.2S/54.3E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=1.5 CI=2.5-

QUICKSCAT DATA OF 1358Z REVEAL A WEAK SYSTEM, WELL BELOW MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM STRENGH, WITH 30 KT WINDS ONLY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
QUADRANT. SO CURRENT INTENSITY MAY BE A LITTLE BIT GENEROUS.

CENTER HAS BEEN RELOCALISED FURTHER NORTH AND SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRAKING
WESTWARDS AT 05 KNOTS.

LOLA IS STILL SUFFERING OF A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME NICE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE REFFERED TO THE CIRRUS
EXPENSION. HOWEVER ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
UNDER A TIGHT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BY TOMORROW.
SOME FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AS THIS SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK
GENERALLY WESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT, A WIDE AND DEEP MID-LAT TROUGH THAT
WILL COME FROM THE SOUTH-WEST SHOULD GIVE A POLEWARDS COMPONENT TO THE
TRACK AND MAKE THE
SYSTEM TURN SOUTHWARDS TO SOUTHEASTWARDS.

[HURAKAN]

It looks good enough to be at least a moderate TS.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

23/1900 UTC 16.6S 55.9E T2.0/2.5 LOLA

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 554
WTIO30 FMEE 231806
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 12/14/20072008
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14 (EX-LOLA)
2.A POSITION 2008/03/23 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.7S / 56.4E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL FOUR
DEGREES
EAST)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /S
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: SE: 150 SO: 220 NO:
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/03/24 06 UTC: 16.6S/55.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
24H: 2008/03/24 18 UTC: 16.6S/55.0E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
36H: 2008/03/25 06 UTC: 16.8S/54.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
48H: 2008/03/25 18 UTC: 17.6S/54.8E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
60H: 2008/03/26 06 UTC: 18.8S/55.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
72H: 2008/03/26 18 UTC: 20.6S/57.0E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=2.0 CI=2.5-
THE SYSTEM IS STRONGLY ASYMETRICAL, WITH WINDS RATHER WEAK CLOSE TO
THE
CENTRE (20 KT), REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE ONLY IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR.
MICROWAVE DATA SSMI 23/1513Z SHOW A NORTHERLY SHEARED SYSTEM. ON THE
LAST ANIMATED IR IMAGERY, DEEP CONVECTION SEEMS TO ORGANYZE INTO A
SMALL
BI SOUTH TO THE
CENTER.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE WITHIN THE NEXT 12/24 HOURS
UNDER
A TIGHT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
SOME FURTHER SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AS THIS SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK
GENERALLY WESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A TEMPORARY SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE
DURING THE NEXT 24/36 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, A BROAD AND DEEP MID-LAT
TROUGH
BUILDING IN THE SOUTH-WEST SHOULD GIVE A POLEWARDS COMPONENT TO THE
TRACK AND TURN
THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN SECTOR.=
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

WTXS31 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LOLA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 16.5S 56.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S 56.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 16.4S 55.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 16.5S 54.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 17.1S 53.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 18.0S 54.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 16.5S 56.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25S (LOLA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM
NORTH OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. TC 25S CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH.
THIS GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL
IT BEGINS A RECURVATURE POLEWARD BY TAU 24. THE RECURVE IS DUE
TO THE STORM ROUNDING THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TOWARD A
DEVELOPING WEAKNESS INDUCED BY AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH. TC 25S HAS MAINTAIN STRENGTH BUT NOT INTENSIFIED
AS ANTICIPATED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE
OF GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR HAS KEPT THE STRONG FROM INTENSIFYING OR WEAKENING. AS
THE STORM TRACKS WESTWARD INTO WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS IMPROVE INTENSIFICATION IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TRACK AND INTENSITY
FORECASTS REMAIN CLOSE TO THE NUMERICAL AND STATISTICAL MODEL
CONSENSUSES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 22
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z AND 242100Z.//

NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Very disorganized.

[wyq614]

gigabyte, I logged onto firinga.com but only found that I could only open its home page and couldn't go any further.....

[HURAKAN]

WTXS31 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LOLA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 15.0S 55.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S 55.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 15.2S 55.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 15.0S 55.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25S (LOLA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 395 NM NORTH
OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
FULLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH ISOLATED DEEP
CONVECTION SHEARED 50NM SOUTH. IMAGERY SHOWS AN ELONGATION AND
WEAKENING OF THE LLCC WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION OVER THE PAST
03 HOURS. A 24/0201Z QUIKSCAT IMAGE INDICATED 30-KNOT UNFLAGGED
WINDS OVER THE EASTERN QUADRANT. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS FROM ALL AGENCIES AND A DRIFTING BUOY
REPORT (#14903) OF 999MB. THEREFORE, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN
BOTH POSITIONING AND INTENSITY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND 25-30
KNOT EASTERLIES OVER THE CENTER. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE JUST WEST OF THE SYSTEM WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW
SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM FUELING AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WHICH IS
DISPLACED ABOUT 100NM SOUTH OF THE LLCC. THE CURRENT FORECAST
IS A SIGNIFICANT DEPARTURE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO THE
UNCOUPLING OF THE LLCC FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION RESULTING IN
SLOW, ERRATIC MOTION AND A POSSIBLE LOOP AT THIS TIME. THE LLCC
SHOULD TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF LOW-LEVEL
EASTERLIES TO THE SOUTH. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY THAT THE
SYSTEM MAY RE-INTENSIFY WITH THE MODELS SPLIT AND MAINLY INDIC-
ATING RE-DEVELOPMENT AS AN EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW AFTER TAU 72. THIS
IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING
CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
240600Z IS 15 FEET.//

NNNN

[HurricaneRobert]

That's not regenerated?

[HURAKAN]

Shear continues to relax.

25/0230 UTC 14.9S 55.0E T2.0/2.0 LOLA -- South Indian Ocean

[HURAKAN]

TPXS10 PGTW 250022

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LOLA)

B. 24/2330Z

C. 15.0S

D. 56.2E

E. FIVE/MET7

F. T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS (24/2330Z)

G. IR/EIR

38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAP OF .40 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDS A 2.5 DT. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

SCANLIN

[HurricaneRobert]

Looking good in visible.

[gigabyte89]

It's realy good now. Compact also! And well organised.

Rite now there are really strong winds on Mauritius! and heavy rainfalls!

[gigabyte89]

2008 25 MAR 1820z: TD 25S/LOLA : South Indian Ocean, Mascarenes islands area.
Centre loc: near 15.8s and 56.3e at 12z(MTOTEC)
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS(06z) SS5 03KTS
Max winds(1mn): 30kts(T2.0/12z/Mtotec)
CATEGORY(Australian): below CAT1
Forecast to intensify slightly within the next 12h
Satellite Imagery:
F16 ols eir 1646z,FNMOC.
MY REMARKS:
Heavy rain and gusty winds are reported from MAURITIUS.
An area of very intense convection is to the NE of the island and should miss it.
Cheers
Patrick HOAREAU.

[HURAKAN]

Should be a rainy day in Mauritius.