South Indian Ocean:Tropical Depression Ex-Pancho （潘乔 TC26S)

[wyq614]

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR THE CENTRAL INDIAN OCEAN
Issued at 12:00pm WDT on Sunday the 23rd of March 2008
For the area south of LATITUDE 10 SOUTH between LONGITUDES 90 - 110 EAST

A weak tropical low near 12S 103E lies within an active monsoon trough.
Another weak low in the vicinity of 12S 087E has not developed in recent days.
Model guidance remains mixed in the future development of these lows. However,
there is an increasing chance of intensification, most likely of the eastern
low, by mid week.
The likelihood of a tropical cyclone occurring in the next three days is:
Monday : Low
Tuesday : Moderate
Wednesday : Moderate

[HURAKAN]

Becoming better organized.





AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.3S 101.7E,
APPROXIMATELY 285 NM EAST OF COCOS ISLANDS. RECENT ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION FLARING
NEAR A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER EVIDENT IN A 230917Z
TRMM PASS. THE DISTURBANCE LIES IN A REGION OF MODERATE EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.

[HURAKAN]

23/2030 UTC 11.7S 102.0E T1.5/1.5 97S

[G.B.]

[G.B.]

the area of convection previously located near 12.3s
101.7e, is now located near 11.9s 101.8e, approximately 285 nm east
of Cocos Islands. Recent animated water vapor and infrared satellite
imagery shows deep convection flaring near a developing low level
circulation center evident in a 231816z asmre pass. The disturbance
lies in a region of light to moderate easterly vertical wind shear
and favorable poleward and equatorward outflow aloft. Maximum
sustained surface winds are estimated at 20 to 25 knots. Minimum sea
level pressure is estimated to be near 1005 mb. Due to an increase
in convection organization, the potential for the development of a
significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to
fair.

[G.B.]

IDW10900
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR THE CENTRAL INDIAN OCEAN
Issued at 12:35pm WDT on Monday the 24th of March 2008
For the area south of LATITUDE 10 SOUTH between LONGITUDES 90 - 110 EAST

A Shipping Warning is current for a tropical low near 12.3S 102.9E at 0200UTC.

Another weak tropical low near 13S 087E has not developed in recent days. This
low is expected to move to the east northeast over the next few days and has a
low probability of developing into a tropical cyclone.

The likelihood of a tropical cyclone occurring in the next three days is:
Tuesday : High
Wednesday : High
Thursday : High

** NOTE: Development potential is an estimate of the probability of **
** tropical cyclone development within a 24 hour period. **
** LOW = 10% or less MODERATE = 20-40% HIGH = 50% or more **

[G.B.]

IDW23100
40:3:1:24:12S103E999:11:00
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 0319UTC 24 MARCH 2008

GALE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0200 UTC a tropical low was centred within 30 nautical miles of
latitude twelve decimal three south [12.3S]
longitude one hundred and two decimal nine east [102.9E]
Recent movement : south southwest at 4 knots
Maximum winds : 30 knots
Central pressure: 998 hPa
The low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 6 to 24
hours.


AREA AFFECTED
Within 90 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 30 knots near the centre increasing to 40 knots by 0200 UTC 25
March.

Forecast positions
At 1400 UTC 24 March: Within 50 nautical miles of 13.0 south 102.6 east
Central pressure 992 hPa.
Winds to 35 knots near centre.
At 0200 UTC 25 March: Within 70 nautical miles of 13.5 south 102.9 east
Central pressure 990 hPa.
Winds to 40 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite to SAC 1241 through Land Earth Station Perth 312.

Next warning will be issued by 0700 UTC 24 March 2008.

WEATHER PERTH

[G.B.]

[wyq614]

It should be Pancho soon, but I'm afraid it won't last very long, as wind shear may increase along the track and the SST is cooler west of 95E. If it moves South, the wind shear will be very low, but still, the SST is not favorable.

[G.B.]

IDW27300
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL SUMMARY: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0712 UTC 24/03/2008
Name: Tropical Low
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 12.3S
Longitude: 102.9E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm (55 km)
Movement Towards: north (000 deg)
Speed of Movement: 0 knots (0 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots (55 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots (85 km/h)
Central Pressure: 996 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm (335 km)
Storm Depth: Medium
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+12: 24/1800: 12.6S 103.7E: 050 (095): 040 (075): 990
+24: 25/0600: 13.5S 104.2E: 070 (130): 050 (095): 982
+36: 25/1800: 14.4S 104.2E: 090 (165): 055 (100): 974
+48: 26/0600: 15.3S 104.6E: 110 (205): 060 (110): 972
REMARKS:
Dvorak: FT/CI of 2.5 based on DT of 2.5 - curved band 0.5 wrap, which is in good agreement with MET of 2.5.

Tropical low is in SSTs of 28-30 degrees and light to moderate east northeast shear of between 10 and 20 knots.

Model guidance is in reasonable agreement with a forecast south to southeast track.

Forecast intensity in the next 24 hours follows the standard Dvorak forecast intensity of 1 T-number in 24 hours, after this the forecast intensity has been constrained to 60 knots (T4.0) due to increasing shear and cooler SSTs as the system moves to the south southeast.
Notes:
This product is issued every six hours; the Cyclone Advices (Watches and Warnings) are
usually issued more frequently and contain more useful information for coastal communities.

Time Conversion from UTC to local:
WST add 8 hrs (Add another hour for daylight saving)
CST add 9 hrs 30 min
EST add 10 hrs (Add another hour for daylight saving)
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 25/0100 UTC by Perth TCWC.

[HURAKAN]

24/0830 UTC 12.6S 102.3E T2.0/2.0 97S

[HURAKAN]

[G.B.]

NRL has renamed this 26S NONAME

Pancho should follow shortly

[G.B.]

[Chacor]

WTXS31 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/240221Z MAR 08//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 13.0S 103.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.0S 103.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 13.4S 103.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 13.9S 103.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 14.5S 103.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 15.3S 103.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 13.1S 103.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM EAST OF THE
COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06
HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVED CONVECT-
IVE BANDING AND CONSOLIDATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. A 240822Z TRMM
37GHZ IMAGE AND A 241042Z AMSU IMAGE DEPICT A WELL-DEFINED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) POSITIONED SLIGHTLY EAST OF A
DEVELOPING CDO FEATURE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AHEAD OF A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH SOUTHWEST OF THE
SYSTEM AND A DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONE OVER THE CENTER. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
WITH WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE HIGH END OF DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF 30-35 KNOTS. TC 26S IS FORECAST TO TRACK INCREASINGLY
SOUTHWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE STEERING RIDGE
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK AS THE SYSTEM CONSOLIDATES,
THEREFORE, TRACK SPEEDS ARE SLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS FORECAST
IS SLIGHTLY FASTER AND WEST OF THE CONSENSUS DUE TO POOR INITIAL-
IZATION OF THE GFNI TRACKER AND INITIAL ERRONEOUS EQUATORWARD TRACK.
TC 26S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A 10-15 KNOT PER DAY RATE DUE
TO FAVORABLE OUTFLOW AND SST. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS
REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 240221Z MAR 08 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 240230). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
241200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250300Z AND 251500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LOLA) FINAL WARNING (WTXS31 PGTW
240300).//

[HURAKAN]

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 1249UTC 24 MARCH 2008

STORM FORCE WIND WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC a tropical low was centred within 30 nautical miles of
latitude twelve decimal nine south [12.9S]
longitude one hundred and three decimal three east [103.3E]
Recent movement : southeast at 5 knots
Maximum winds : 30 knots
Central pressure: 996 hPa
The low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 6 to 24
hours.


AREA AFFECTED
Within 90 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 30 knots near the centre increasing to 50 knots by 1200 UTC 25
March.
Winds above 34 knots within 90 nautical miles of centre after 1800 UTC 24 March
with rough seas and moderate swell.
Winds above 48 knots within 40 nautical miles of centre after 1200 UTC 25 March
with very rough seas and moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 0000 UTC 25 March: Within 50 nautical miles of 13.7 south 103.8 east
Central pressure 990 hPa.
Winds to 40 knots near centre.
At 1200 UTC 25 March: Within 70 nautical miles of 14.6 south 104.4 east
Central pressure 982 hPa.
Winds to 50 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite to SAC 1241 through Land Earth Station Perth 312.

Next warning will be issued by 1900 UTC 24 March 2008.

WEATHER PERTH

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

Looking good.

[HURAKAN]

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 1816UTC 24 MARCH 2008

STORM FORCE WIND WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1800 UTC a tropical low was centred within 30 nautical miles of
latitude thirteen decimal three south [13.3S]
longitude one hundred and three decimal six east [103.6E]
Recent movement : south southeast at 5 knots
Maximum winds : 30 knots
Central pressure: 996 hPa
The low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 6 to 24
hours.


AREA AFFECTED
Within 90 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 30 knots near the centre increasing to 50 knots by 1800 UTC 25
March.
Winds above 34 knots within 90 nautical miles of centre after 0000 UTC 25 March
with rough seas and moderate swell.
Winds above 48 knots within 40 nautical miles of centre after 1800 UTC 25 March
with very rough seas and moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 0600 UTC 25 March: Within 50 nautical miles of 14.2 south 104.1 east
Central pressure 990 hPa.
Winds to 40 knots near centre.
At 1800 UTC 25 March: Within 70 nautical miles of 15.0 south 104.5 east
Central pressure 982 hPa.
Winds to 50 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite to SAC 1241 through Land Earth Station Perth 312.

Next warning will be issued by 0100 UTC 25 March 2008.

WEATHER PERTH