Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA
Issued at 2:17pm WST on Tuesday the 1st of April 2008
For the area south of LATITUDE 10 SOUTH between LONGITUDES 110 - 125 EAST
There is a weak low in the vicinity of 11S 115E. Although it may develop a
little as it moves to the southwest, it is not expected to develop into a
tropical cyclone in the next three days.
There are no other significant lows evident, or expected to develop in the
region over the next three days.
The likelihood of a tropical cyclone occurring in the region in the next three
days is:
Wednesday : Low
Thursday : Low
Friday : Low
** NOTE: Development potential is an estimate of the probability of **
** tropical cyclone development within a 24 hour period. **
** LOW = 10% or less MODERATE = 20-40% HIGH = 50% or more **
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THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.8S
115.0E, HAS BEEN RELOCATED TO 14.3S 115.0E, APPROXIMATELY
480 NM NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED METSAT IMAGERY
INDICATES INCREASED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A DISORGANIZED
AND ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
PLACES THE DISTURBANCE UNDER FAVORABLE NORTHEASTERLY DIFFLUENCE
AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB.
BECAUSE THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS WEAK AND VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR LESS THAN OPTIMAL, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
REMAINS POOR.