NWPAC: 台风“浣熊” STS Neoguri (0801/02W)

[wyq614]

00：00z position - 8.4N 147.5E
According to the ECMWF, it is possible that 99W becomes 02W in the future and finally make a landfall on Guangdong Province, China.

[Chacor]

Still nothing from JMA.

PGUM:
A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED WEST OF GUAM EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM 14N141E
TO 7N141E. DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS COMBINING WITH THIS TROUGH TO ENHANCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 7N AND 14N FROM
138E TO 145E.

[HURAKAN]

[RL3AO]

FWIW, the Canadian does develop it.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looking good! Nice outflow all quads on that last satellite.

[Typhoon Hunter]

ECMWF has been developing this for the last 8 runs or so. The lastest 00z run today has the LPA crossing the Philippines and then intensifying into quite a strong system in the South China Sea. If indeed this does develop and get named by the JMA it will be the first offical tropical storm of the year in the northern hemisphere if I'm not mistaken. (Tropical storm 01W from January doesn't count because JTWC is not official.)

[HURAKAN]

Poof.

[Typhoon Hunter]

99W has unpoofed itself and has been upgraded to FAIR by JTWC.

ABPW10 PGTW 130100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/130100Z-130600ZAPR2008//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.9N
132.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.4N 127.9E, APPROXIMATELY 140 NM
SOUTHEAST OF BISLIG, PHILIPPINES. RECENT ANIMATED METSAT IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW DISORGANIZED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE SUSPECT AREA DEPICT WEAK
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND 24 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS NEAR 4 MB IN EASTERN
MINDANAO. A 2247Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING
BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE LLCC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 17 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
FAIR.

ECMWF still going for development over the South China Sea and making landfall over Guangdong as a tropical storm/depression.

[Chacor]

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1004 HPA NEAR 08N 126E WEST 10 KT.

[cycloneye]

It looks good now.

[HURAKAN]

Looking much better as it moves over the Philippines.

[Derek Ortt]

I am not surprised

I have been testing a new vorticity tracking algorithm and it has been indicating for a few days that this should go ahead and develop

[Chacor]

Now a TD from JMA.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 09N 124E WEST 15 KT.

[Chacor]

Improving greatly.



Very, very deep convection, look at all that black:



And just for emphasis, the rainbow channel on the floater has WHITE on it:

[Category 5]

This thing has unbelieveable convection on it. Is there a radar link for the Philippines?

[Chacor]

First name on the name list is Neoguri.

[RL3AO]

Not surprising. It is nearing diurnal min.

[HURAKAN]

It looks like a TS to me.

[Cyclenall]

I would peg it at 45-50 knots 1-min. Why is it still an Invest on the NRL?

[RL3AO]

The next JTWC outlook is at 20z and the next advisory time is 21z. Might get a TCFA at 20z.