SE Indian: Tropical Cyclone Rosie (TC 28S)

[Chacor]

Indonesian Agency For Meteorology and Geophysics

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center (TCWC) Jakarta



TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR AREA 90 - 125 E AND 0 - 10 S

Issued at 10:20 WIT on Friday 18/04/2008



A low near 5S 93E expected to develop in the region over the next there days.



The likelihood of a tropical cyclone occurring in the next three days is:

Saturday: Low

Sunday : Moderate

Monday : Moderate

** NOTE: Development potential is an estimate of the probability of tropical cyclone development within a 24 hour period.

** LOW = 10% or less, MODERATE = 20-40%, HIGH = 50% or more



For further information :

Phone : (021) 6546315 / 18

Web : http://maritim.bmg.go.id/cyclones/

[HurricaneRobert]

I can't even tell where this is. There's just a huge mass of convection centered around the equator in the middle of the Indian Ocean.

[Chacor]

INDONESIAN AGENCY FOR METEOROLOGY AND GEOPHYSICS
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC) Jakarta

EXTREME WEATHER WARNING

Issued by JAKARTA TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
At: 11:16 WIB 20/04/2008

EXTREME WEATHER WARNING NUMBER 1

A CYCLONE WARNING for a Tropical Depression has continues for areas Pesisir Barat Bengkulu, Lampung.

A CYCLONE WATCH for a Tropical Depression has continues for areas Banten, DKI Jakarta, Bekasi, Jawa Barat bagian Selatan.


At 07:00 WIB Tropical Depression was estimated to be 620 kilometres west southwest of Bengkulu and 1010 kilometres west of Jakarta and moving west northwest at 16 kilometres per hour stationary.

Extreme weather is expected to develop caused by this Tropical Depression

Moderate to heavy rain with strong wind is probably accour in Western Coast of West Sumatera, Bengkulu and Lampung.

High wave could reach 3.0 meters or higher along western waters of West Sumatera to Southern Waters of West Java.


Details of Tropical Depression NONAME at 07:00 WIB:
. Centre located near...... 6.8 degrees south 97.6 degrees east
. Location accuracy........ within 130 kilometres
. Recent movement.......... towards the west northwest at 16 kilometres per hour
. Central pressure......... 1004 hectoPascals
. Maximum wind speed....... 45 kilometres per hour

[Chacor]

INDONESIAN AGENCY FOR METEOROLOGY AND GEOPHYSICS
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC) Jakarta

SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WARNING

HIGH SEAS WARNING FOR AREA 0 - 10 S, 90 - 125 E
Issued by JAKARTA TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
At: 03:34 UTC 20 April 2008

SITUATION
At 00:00 UTC Tropical Depression 1004 hPa was within 70 nautical miles of 6.8 S 97.6 E moving west northwest at 9 knots.

AREA AFFECTED
Indian Ocean western Mentawai and Southwestern Sumatera

FORECAST
Clockwise winds reaching 25 knots expected to increase to 30 knots in the next 24 hours.
High seas may exceed Rough to Very Rough scale and rising swell.

12:00 UTC 20 April: Within 135 nautical miles of 7.9 S 98.1 E
Central pressure 1004 hPa.
Wind speed reaching 25 knots near centre.
00:00 UTC 21 April: Within 190 nautical miles of 8.7 S 99.2 E
Central pressure 1004 hPa.
Wind speed reaching 30 knots near centre.

REMARKS
Ships please transmit 3-hourly weather reports.
Next warning will be issued by 19.00 WIB, Sunday 20 April 2008

Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre JAKARTA

[Chacor]

[Chacor]

[Chacor]

Oh, and for anyone who wants to find Jakarta's warnings, it appears that they're issuing it through Singapore. The WMO code for Changi Airport is WSSS. WTSR20 WSSS is the bulletin.

[G.B.]

Here's BoM's track map



IDW10900

UPDATED
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR THE CENTRAL INDIAN OCEAN
Issued at 3:07pm WST on Sunday the 20th of April 2008
For the area south of LATITUDE 10 SOUTH between LONGITUDES 90 - 110 EAST

A Tropical Cyclone Advice is current for Christmas Island for a developing
tropical low near 8.5S 97.2E at 2pm WST. Please refer to the latest advice for
further details.

Another tropical low may enter the region from the northwest near 10S 100E late
Wednesday but at this stage it has a low probability of developing into a
tropical cyclone.

There are no other significant lows evident or expected to develop in the region
over the next three days.

The likelihood of a tropical cyclone occurring in the next three days is:
Monday : Low
Tuesday : Moderate
Wednesday: Moderate
** NOTE: Development potential is an estimate of the probability of **
** tropical cyclone development within a 24 hour period. **
** LOW = 10% or less MODERATE = 20-40% HIGH = 50% or more **

[Chacor]

IDW24400
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Media: The Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 2
Issued at 9:00 pm WST on Sunday, 20 April 2008
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for a developing tropical low for Christmas
Island.

At 8:00 pm WST a Tropical Low was estimated to be
390 kilometres north northeast of Cocos Is and
860 kilometres west northwest of Christmas Is and
moving east southeast at 16 kilometres per hour.

The low may develop into a cyclone late Monday or early Tuesday but is not
expected to cause gales at Christmas Island within the next 24 hours. However
gales may develop on Tuesday if the low develops and moves towards the
southeast.

Details of Tropical Low at 8:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 8.9 degrees South 98.0 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the east southeast at 16 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 1002 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 3:00 am WST Monday 21 April.


This advice is available by dialling 1300 659 210.


A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

[Chacor]

IDJ20080
INDONESIAN AGENCY FOR METEOROLOGY AND GEOPHYSICS
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC) Jakarta

EXTREME WEATHER WARNING

Issued by JAKARTA TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
At: 22:45 WIB 20/04/2008

EXTREME WEATHER WARNING NUMBER 2

A CYCLONE WARNING for a Tropical Depression has continues for areas Kodya Tangerang, Lebak, Pandeglang, Serang, Tangerang, Bengkulu Selatan, Bengkulu Utara, Rejang Lebong, Bandung, Bogor, Ciamis, Cianjur, Garut, Kodya Bandung, Kodya Bogor, Kodya Sukabumi, Majalengka, Purwakarta, Sukabumi, Sumedang, Tasikmalaya, Kodya Bandar Lampung, Lampung Barat and Lampung Selatan.

A CYCLONE WATCH for a Tropical Depression has continues for areas Jakarta Barat, Jakarta Pusat, Jakarta Selatan, Jakarta Timur, Jakarta Utara, Bekasi, Cirebon, Indramayu, Karawang, Kuningan, Subang, Banjarnegara, Banyumas, Cilacap, Kebumen, Purworejo, Temanggung and Wonosobo


At 19:00 WIB Tropical Depression was estimated to be 780 kilometres southwest of Bengkulu and 970 kilometres west southwest of Tanjung Karang and moving south southwest at 17 kilometres per hour stationary.

Extreme weather is expected to develop caused by this Tropical Depression

Moderate to heavy rain with strong wind is probably accour in Western Coast of West Sumatera, Bengkulu, Lampung, Banten and West Java.

High wave could reach 3.0 meters or higher along western waters of West Sumatera to Southern Waters of West Java.


Details of Tropical Depression at 19:00 WIB:
. Centre located near...... 8.6 degrees south 97.1 degrees east
. Location accuracy........ within 130 kilometres
. Recent movement.......... towards the south southwest at 17 kilometres per hour
. Central pressure......... 1004 hectoPascals
. Maximum wind speed....... 55 kilometres per hour

The next advice will be issued by 07.00 WIB, Sunday 21 April 2008.

This advice is available on telephone 021-6546318, 4246321 ext 377

Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre JAKARTA

[Chacor]

INDONESIAN AGENCY FOR METEOROLOGY AND GEOPHYSICS
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC) Jakarta

SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WARNING

HIGH SEAS WARNING FOR AREA 0 - 10 S, 90 - 125 E
Issued by JAKARTA TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
At: 15:53 UTC 20 April 2008

SITUATION
At 12:00 UTC Tropical Depression 1004 hPa was within 70 nautical miles of 8.6 S 97.1 E moving south southwest at 9 knots.

AREA AFFECTED
Indian Ocean western Mentawai and Southwestern Sumatera

FORECAST
Clockwise winds reaching 30 knots expected to increase to 30 knots in the next 24 hours.
High seas may exceed Rough to Very Rough scale and rising swell.

00:00 UTC 21 April: Within 27 nautical miles of 9.1 S 97.2 E
Central pressure 1004 hPa.
Wind speed reaching 30 knots near centre.
12:00 UTC 21 April: Within 40 nautical miles of 9.5 S 96.7 E
Central pressure 1004 hPa.
Wind speed reaching 30 knots near centre.

REMARKS
Ships please transmit 3-hourly weather reports.
Next warning will be issued by 07.00 WIB, Sunday 21 April 2008

Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre JAKARTA

[HURAKAN]

Not looking too good at this moment.

[HURAKAN]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.9S 97.7E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.2S 98.3E, APPROXIMATELY 195 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST
OF COCOS ISLAND. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 201840Z AMSRE
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION
AROUND AN ELONGATED AND SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA INDICATE FAVORABLE SURFACE WEST-
ERLIES TO THE NORTH OF THE DISTURBANCE HELPING TO ENHANCE LOW LEVEL
VORTICITY. THE DISTURBANCE LIES UNDER A REGION OF MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR WITH IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AHEAD OF A MIDLATITUDE
TROUGH LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE DISTURBANCE. THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE, WHICH WILL
HELP PROMOTE LOW LEVEL CONSOLIDATION OF THE DISTURBANCE. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. BECAUSE OF THE
RECENT IMPROVEMENT IN THE LOWER AND UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENTS, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.

20/2030 UTC 8.5S 98.7E T2.0/2.0 95S -- South Indian Ocean

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Media: The Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 4
Issued at 9:10 am WST on Monday, 21 April 2008
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WATCH is current for a developing tropical low for Christmas Island.

At 8:00 am WST a Tropical Low was estimated to be
420 kilometres northeast of Cocos Is and
700 kilometres west of Christmas Is and
moving east southeast at 16 kilometres per hour.

The low may develop into a cyclone during Tuesday but is not expected to cause
gales at Christmas Island within the next 24 hours. However gales may develop
later on Tuesday if the low develops further. Heavy rain is likely on Christmas
Island during Tuesday and Wednesday.

Details of Tropical Low at 8:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 9.4 degrees South 99.4 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 75 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the east southeast at 14 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 998 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 3:00 pm WST Monday 21 April.

This advice is available by dialling 1300 659 210.

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
____________________________________

Down 4 mb!

[Chacor]

Jakarta disagrees.

INDONESIAN AGENCY FOR METEOROLOGY AND GEOPHYSICS
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC) Jakarta

SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WARNING

HIGH SEAS WARNING FOR AREA 0 - 10 S, 90 - 125 E
Issued by JAKARTA TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
At: 04:54 UTC 21 April 2008

SITUATION
At 00:00 UTC Tropical Depression 1004 hPa was within 75 nautical miles of 9.3 S 99.5 E moving east southeast at 12 knots.

AREA AFFECTED
Indian Ocean southwest of Sumatra, Southwest of Sunda strait and Indian Ocean south of Java.

FORECAST
Clockwise winds reaching 30 knots expected to increase to 30 knots in the next 24 hours.
High seas may exceed Rough to Very Rough scale and rising swell.

12:00 UTC 21 April: Within 95 nautical miles of 9.9 S 100.9 E
Central pressure 1004 hPa.
Wind speed reaching 30 knots near centre.
00:00 UTC 22 April: Within 185 nautical miles of 10.6 S 102.3 E
Central pressure 998 hPa.
Wind speed reaching 30 knots near centre.

REMARKS
Ships please transmit 3-hourly weather reports.
Next warning will be issued by 19.00 WIB, Monday 21 April 2008

Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre JAKARTA

[Chacor]

[wyq614]

the area of convection previously located near 8.9s 97.7e,
is now located near 9.2s 98.3e, approximately 195 nm north-northeast
of Cocos Island. Recent animated infrared imagery and a 201840z amsre
microwave image depict improved organization of the deep convection
around an elongated and slowly consolidating low level circulation
center. Recent scatterometry data indicate favorable surface west-
erlies to the north of the disturbance helping to enhance low level
vorticity. The disturbance lies under a region of moderate vertical
wind shear with improved poleward outflow ahead of a midlatitude
trough located to the southwest of the disturbance. The upper level
environment is expected to continue to gradually improve, which will
help promote low level consolidation of the disturbance. Maximum
sustained surface winds are estimated at 20 to 25 knots. Minimum sea
level pressure is estimated to be near 1005 mb. Because of the
recent improvement in the lower and upper level environments, the
potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone
within the next 24 hours is upgraded to fair.

[wyq614]

TCFA

the area of convection previously located near 9.2s 98.3e
is now located near 9.2s 100.3e, approximately 265nm northeast of
the Cocos Islands. Recent animated multispectral satellite imagery
and a 210010z SSMI microwave image depict organized deep convection
developing around a consolidating low level circulation center
(LLCC). Strong surface westerlies to the north of the disturbance
are helping to enhance low level vorticity. The disturbance lies
under a region of low to moderate vertical wind shear with good
poleward outflow ahead of an upper-level midlatitude trough
located to the southwest. Maximum sustained surface winds are
estimated at 27 to 32 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is
estimated to be near 1000 mb. See ref a (wtxs21 pgtw 210530) for
further details. Based on improving low-level organization and
upper level support, the potential for the development of a
significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded
to good.

[HURAKAN]