NW Pacific - Invest 91w

[zaqxsw75050]

[cycloneye]

25/ 30 UTC 5.3N 127.1E T1.0/1.0 91W -- West Pacific Ocean

[HURAKAN]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.2N 128.6E,
APPROXIMATELY 135 NM SOUTHEAST OF BISLIG, PHILIPPINES. RECENT
ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 241956Z AMSUB MICROWAVE IMAGE
INDICATE WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A POORLY DEFINED AND
BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A PARTIAL 241217Z ASCAT
IMAGE INDICATES BROAD TROUGHING IN THE REGION WITH WESTERLIES TO THE
SOUTH OF THE DISTURBANCE. THE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY LIES UNDER 5 TO
10 KNOTS OF SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IS IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. IMMINENT
LANDFALL WITH MINDINAO WILL LIMIT CONSOLIDATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. DUE TO A SLIGHTLY BETTER
ORGANIZED LLCC BUT ANTICIPATED INTERACTION WITH LAND, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.

[Derek Ortt]

lets see if the composite (GFS, CMC, NOGAPS) filtered vorticity will actually show something tomorrow morning. Showed NOTHING today

[Chacor]