93W INVEST - south of Guam

[Chacor]

[RattleMan]

910
ABPW10 PGTW 020600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/020600Z-030600ZMAY2008//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED LOCATED NEAR 6.5N
144.3E, APPROXIMATELY 400 NM SOUTH OF GUAM. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 020418Z AMSU IMAGE SHOW ISOLATED CONVECTION
NEAR A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. BECAUSE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
HAS JUST DEVELOPED AND THE CONVECTION IS NOT YET PERSISTENT, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
FORECAST TEAM: DELTA//

[senorpepr]

The only model I've seen so far (C120) has 93W passing north of Palau and then curving northward as it approaches the Philippines. It may still be worth concern for Luzon, however.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Looks pretty good. Nothing explosive, but good enough to warrant slow
development at least. I think this may become a tropical depression
if nothing stops it.

[HURAKAN]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.5N
144.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.7N 138.9E, APPROXIMATELY 65 NM
SOUTHEAST OF YAP. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION FORMING NEAR A LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ALSO EVIDENT IN A 022001Z
AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE LLCC IS ENCOUNTERING AN AREA OF
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS ALONG ITS EQUATORWARD
PERIPHERY, WHICH WILL AID VORTEX SPIN-UP. ADDITIONALLY, THE
DISTURBANCE LIES IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE NEAR THE AXIS OF AN ANTI-
CYCLONE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. BECAUSE THE LLCC IS SLOWLY ORGANIZING AND
DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
REMAINS POOR.

[Chacor]

Now an unmarked low pressure area on the JMA's weather chart. Not yet mentioned in the METAREA high seas warning.

[HURAKAN]

Poof it goes.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.7N
138.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 135.7E, APPROXIMATELY 145 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PALAU. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SAT-
ELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING DEVELOPING ALONG THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERIES OF AN ORGANIZING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ALSO EVIDENT IN A 032311Z SSMIS
PASS. A STRONG BURST OF LOW LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS APPROACHING
THE EQUATORWARD PERIPHERY OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO
AID SPIN-UP OF THE LLCC. THE DISTURBANCE LIES SLIGHTLY EAST
OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTER IN A REGION OF MODERATE
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1006 MB. BECAUSE THE LLCC IS SLOWLY ORGANIZING AND VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR IS SLIGHTLY UNFAVORABLE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.

[cycloneye]

Trying to make a comeback.

[P.K.]

WWJP25 RJTD 041800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 041800.
WARNING VALID 051800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 998 HPA
AT 53N 168E SEA EAST OF KAMCHATKA MOVING EAST 15 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF LOW.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 998 HPA
AT 39N 132E SEA OF JAPAN MOVING EAST 25 KNOTS.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 500 MILES OF LOW EAST SEMICIRCLE
AND 300 MILES ELSEWHERE FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN MIDDLE OF SEA OF JAPAN EAST CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 36N 141E 42N 144E
45N 149E 44N 174E 55N 163E 60N 165E 60N 180E 36N 180E 30N 160E 30N
151E 36N 151E 36N 141E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1006 HPA AT 29N 142E EAST 20 KT.
LOW 1010 HPA AT 37N 157E EAST 15 KT.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 07N 137E WNW SLOWLY.
HIGH 1010 HPA AT 24N 135E EAST 15 KT.
HIGH 1020 HPA AT 45N 155E ESE 20 KT.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 26N 118E TO 27N 123E 31N 128E 30N 131E.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[RattleMan]

948
ABPW10 PGTW 050230
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/050230Z-050600ZMAY2008//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.5N
135.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 133.7E, APPROXIMATELY 170 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PALAU. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SAT-
ELLITE IMAGERY AND A 042258Z SSMI IMAGE DEPICT CONVECTIVE BANDS
WRAPPING INTO AN ORGANIZING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
A STRONG BURST OF LOW LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS APPROACHING THE
EQUATORWARD PERIPHERY OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO AID
SPIN-UP OF THE LLCC. THE DISTURBANCE LIES SLIGHTLY EAST OF AN
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTER IN A REGION OF LOW TO MODERATE
SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE
TO THE IMPROVED UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND BETTER ORGANIZED
LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.

[senorpepr]

Appears they have resumed model runs on 93W.

CONW has the disturbance meandering aimlessly east of the Philippines, with little forward progression throughout the five-day forecast. C120 persists with it's slow northwest curve. This time, however, it has a landfall nearly between T+96 and T+120 on Luzon (Philippines).

[senorpepr]

06Z models on 93W is a little further west. CONW drifts 93W west-northwestward for the first three days, then meanders it back northeast before shooting it off to the north.

C120 appears to be the more appropriate solution. Around T+48, it has the disturbance cross the northern Visayas of the Philippines. (Landfall in Leyte)

Still no intensity guidance...


ABPW10 PGTW 050600
...
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.0N
133.7E HAS BEEN RELOCATED TO 8.9N 133.0E, APPROXIMATELY 135 NM
NORTHWEST OF PALAU. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS SPORADIC DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING NEAR A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER ALSO EVIDENT IN A
05044Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE PASS. A STRONG BURST OF LOW LEVEL
WESTERLY WINDS ALONG ON THE EQUATORWARD PERIPHERY OF THIS
DISTURBANCE IS ASSISTING SPIN-UP OF THE LLCC. THE DISTURBANCE
LIES UNDER THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IN A REGION
OF LOW TO MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, PARTICULARLY ON THE POLEWARD SIDE. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.

[HURAKAN]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.9N
133.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.4N 131.4E, APPROXIMATELY 225 NM
NORTHWEST OF PALAU. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A WEAKENED AND ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 051957Z AMSUB MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS LITTLE
TO NO DEEP CONVECTION REMAINING, AND A 052048Z QUIKSCAT IMAGE
CONFIRMS A WEAKENED LLCC WITH 10 TO 15 KNOT UNFLAGGED WINDS
NEAR THE LLCC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO THE WEAKENING OF THE LLCC AND LOSS OF
THE MAJORITY OF DEEP CONVECTION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOP-
MENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR.

[senorpepr]

06Z models on 93W is a little further west. CONW drifts 93W west-northwestward for the first three days, then meanders it back northeast before shooting it off to the north.

C120 appears to be the more appropriate solution. Around T+48, it has the disturbance cross the northern Visayas of the Philippines. (Landfall in Leyte)

Still no intensity guidance...

No significant change to the 18Z suite...

[wyq614]

Gone from NRL