NW Pacific: TY Rammasun (0802/03W)

[RL3AO]

[RattleMan]

948
ABPW10 PGTW 050230
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/050230Z-050600ZMAY2008//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 4.3N 143.8E,
APPROXIMATELY 460 NM SOUTHEAST OF YAP. RECENT ANIMATED MULTI-
SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 042126Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOW A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. BECAUSE THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS WEAK, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.

[senorpepr]

The C120 was ran on 94W. The results have the disturbance tracking in a northwesterly direction throughout the next five days, passing about 1 to 1.5 degrees north of Palau around T+84

[RL3AO]

(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.4N
143.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.5N 140.1E, APPROXIMATELY 270 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF YAP. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 052009Z SSMIS MICROWAVE SHOW IMPROVED
CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
BANDING DEEP CONVECTION SUSTAINING CLOSER TO THE LLCC. A 052048Z
QUIKSCAT IMAGE INDICATES 15 TO 20 KNOT UNFLAGGED WINDS NEAR A
BETTER DEFINED LLCC WITH STRONG SURFACE WESTERLIES TO THE SOUTH
OF THE DISTURBANCE ENHANCING VORTICITY. THE DISTURBANCE LIES
UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL, NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. BECAUSE THE
LLCC HAS SHOWN IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.

[wyq614]

EC has this system make landfall in Luzon and then turn north-northeastward and become an extraordinary extratropical cyclone to the south of Japan.

[HURAKAN]

Taking shape.

[senorpepr]

From PAGASA:

At 2 PM today, an Active Low Pressure Area (ALPA) was estimated based on satellite and surface data at 800 kms east of Mindanao (8.5ºN 134.0ºE) embedded along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) affecting Visayas and Mindanao.

[Chacor]

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 07N 136E WNW 10 KT.

[senorpepr]

(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.5N
140.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.8N 133.1E APPROXIMATELY 190 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PALAU. RECENT ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
BROAD CONSOLIDATION OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
BANDING CONVECTION BEGINNING TO WRAP TOWARDS THE CENTER. NEARBY
OBSERVATIONS AND RECENT ASCAT DATA INDICATES 13 TO 18 KNOT WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLCC WITH STRONG SURFACE WESTERLIES TO THE SOUTH
OF THE DISTURBANCE ENHANCING VORTICITY. THE DISTURBANCE LIES UNDER
AN UPPER LEVEL, NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF LOW VER-
TICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THOUGH THE LLCC HAS SHOWN
IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION, THE CIRCULATION REMAINS VERY ELONGATED AND
THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.

[senorpepr]

The 06Z models present an... well... interesting solution.

CONW has 94W basically moving northward over the next five days, avoiding the Philippines altogether.

C120, on the other hand, has the disturbance moving at a fast forward motion, barely skirting south of the Philippines (clipping Mindanao) and being in the Gulf of Thailand (that's right) by T+120.

My best guess: CONW is too far right and C120 is too far left. I'd expect a slow curve northwestward throughout the period, with the system crossing southern Luzon and the northern Visayas in the next couple of days before curving back north or northeast in the South China Sea. We shall see...

[HURAKAN]

Developing rapidly.

[KWT]

Wow the invest looks way better then it did earlier today, the convection has really flared up recently, also not exactly hard to see the circulation developing nicely as well, I'd expect we could well have a depression within the next 24hrs if this keeps up.

[senorpepr]

It looks like I missed with PAGASA advisory earlier...


Weather Advisory No. 01
For: Active Low Pressure Area (ALPA)
Issued at 3:00 p.m., 06 May 2008


The Active Low Pressure Area (ALPA) estimated at 1,100 kms east of Mindanao (7.0°N 137.0°E) embedded within the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). It is expected to develop into a tropical depression and enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) within the next 24 hours. This disturbance is still far to affect any part of the country, however it will bring scattered to widespread rainshowers and thunderstorms over the eastern section of Visayas and Mindanao.

The next information is expected to be issued tomorrow afternoon or earlier if intensification occurs.


If it becomes a tropical depression, it will gain the name "Butchoy" from the Philippines. The JMA name will be "Rammasun," once the cyclone reaches tropical storm intensity.

[KWT]

Ok cool i was wondering where the warnings were, not really surprising they are expecting it to become a TD, I personally don't think its all that far away right now just needs to consolidate a touch more over the next 12hrs.

[HURAKAN]

[RL3AO]

It looks like there is a burst of convection near/over the LLC over the past 3 hours. Might be trying to get more organized.

[CycloneNL]

NRL: TCFA !

[RL3AO]

477
WTPN21 PGTW 062200
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 6.7N 134.8E TO 10.5N 132.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 062100Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 7.4N 134.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 061656Z AMSR-E
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW CONTINUED CONSOLIDATION OF DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING AROUND A BROAD AREA OF LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING. SIGNIF-
ICANT DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN CONFINED TO THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF
THE CIRCULATION WITH SPARSE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. POSITION
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO THE ELONGATED NATURE OF THE LLCC; HOWEVER,
THE AMSR-E IMAGE DOES SUGGEST WEAK BANDING OVER THE WESTERN QUAD-
RANT AND THIS LOCATION IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH 24-HOUR PRESSURE
FALLS OF 3 MB SUGGESTING THAT THE LOW LEVEL IS DEVELOPING OVER
KOROR. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE WITHIN A FAVOR-
ABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AS
CONFIRMED BY THE 061200Z KOROR SKEW-T. THE DISTURBANCE HAS MAIN-
TAINED FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW BUT RESTRICTED POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. DUE TO THE IMPROVED (BUT SLOW) CONSOLIDATION AND
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE AREA IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 072200Z.//

[HURAKAN]

[senorpepr]

From PAGASA:

At 2:00 a.m., an Active Low Pressure Area (ALPA) was estimated based on satellite and surface data at 850 kms east of Mindanao (7.5ºN 134.5ºE) embedded along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) affecting Visayas and Mindanao.