WPAC: STS Halong (05W, PAGASA: Cosme)

[zaqxsw75050]

[Ad Novoxium]

It...just doesn't look healthy at all. There's almost no linking in the INVEST, it's close to land (and likely to get closer before developing), and even if it did develop (which I don't see happening), I'd only expect a tropical depression, tops.

[zaqxsw75050]

i think the reason they label it as invest is because ECMWF develop something out of this into a decent storm and go northeast... let's wait and see what will happen. ECMWF do pretty good on all northern hemisphere storm so far...

[wyq614]

Meteorogical Station of Quanzhou City, Fujian Province
Long-term forecast (valid until May 20, only translate the characters in bold)

预计本旬我市晴天数较多，沿海多大风；旬降水量偏少，旬平均气温正常。旬内影响我市的弱冷空气有二次，主要出现在13-14日和18-19日。13-19日沿海将出现6-7级，阵风8-9级的东北大风。本旬内南海有热带气旋生成，我市受其影响有大风和阵雨天气。
主要降水时段：17日多云到阴有阵雨，18日-20日全市有阵雨或雷阵雨

During this term, a tropical cyclone will develop in the South China Sea, under its influence, strong winds and showers are expected in our city

Precipitation forecasted during: May 17, mostly cloudy with scattered showers. May 18-20, showers or thunderstorms are expected.

[Pedro Fernández]

The new Tropical Disturbance 95W (LPA/1007 MB) forming over the central part of the South China Sea has remained quasi-stationary...located about 595 km. WSW of Manila (14.0N 115.5E). This disturbance has been forecast on almost all of the Numerical Global Models to become a Tropical Cyclone within the next 2 to 4 days. Long-range forecast shows it strengthening into a Tropical Storm in the next 5 days and may affect Western & NW Luzon this weekend of May 16-19. Stay tuned for more info on this new potential threat.

Source: http://thenhbushmantyphoon.blogspot.com ... t-par.html

[Chacor]

Where's that from?

[KWT]

I'm having a real tough time seeing anything developing from that lot, right now it doesn't even deserve to be asn invest IMO, theres just a complete lack of any real defined convection its just one big weak mess IMO right now.

[Pedro Fernández]

Where's that from?

Sorry... I forgot it. Source: http://thenhbushmantyphoon.blogspot.com ... t-par.html

This has been said in the Jeff Master's blog as well: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... 805&page=5

[Chacor]

With all due respect, if it's not from an official, well-read source, you should include the storm2k disclaimer.

[Pedro Fernández]

With all due respect, if it's not from an official, well-read source, you should include the storm2k disclaimer.

Sorry me, but I don't understand very well the last part of your sentence. Although late, I added the link to that quotation (which I wrote in italics).

Anyway, if a Moderator considers that he should delete my post, he can do it. I believe I didn't do anything bad for anybody.

[RattleMan]

POOR:

ABPW10 PGTW 140200
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/140200Z-140600ZMAY2008//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/140021ZMAY2008//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.4N 115.1E,
APPROXIMATELY 345 NM EAST OF NHA TRANG, VIETNAM. RECENT ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF MID TO LOW
LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING ASSOCIATED WITH WIDESPREAD AND DISORGANIZED
CONVECTION. A 132219Z QUIKSCAT IMAGE SHOWS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION
CENTER WITH 10 TO 15 KNOT UNFLAGGED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER. THE SYS-
TEM CURRENTLY LIES UNDER LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN CLOSE PROXIMITY
TO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.

[RattleMan]

FAIR:

ABPW10 PGTW 140600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/140600Z-15600ZMAY2008//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/140021ZMAY2008//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.4N
115.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 115.5, APPROXIMATELY 350 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF MID TO LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC
TURNING ASSOCIATED WITH WIDESPREAD AND DISORGANIZED CONVECTION.
A 132219Z QUIKSCAT IMAGE SHOWS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION CENTER
WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT UNFLAGGED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER. THE DIS-
TURBANCE CURRENTLY LIES UNDER LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. SINCE THE CIRCULATION REMAINS
ELONGATED, BUT CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.

[P.K.]

Now a TD.

WWJP25 RJTD 140600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 140600.
WARNING VALID 150600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY
25N 126E 21N 126E 18N 120E 16N 116E 19N 114E 22N 121E 25N 126E.
GALE WARNING.
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER WATERS
BOUNDED BY 54N 170E 51N 180E 44N 180E 48N 172E 54N 170E.
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1000 HPA
AT 15.5N 122.8E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN MIDDLE OF SEA OF JAPAN.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 30N 150E 36N 157E
33N 168E 30N 168E 30N 150E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1008 HPA AT 41N 135E NE 10 KT.
LOW 1012 HPA AT 36N 141E ENE 20 KT.
LOW 1008 HPA AT 36N 157E EAST 25 KT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA AT 12N 117E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1018 HPA AT 33N 124E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1016 HPA AT 28N 143E ENE 10 KT.
HIGH 1014 HPA AT 57N 148E SSE SLOWLY.
HIGH 1020 HPA AT 43N 155E ESE 10 KT.
HIGH 1022 HPA AT 34N 172E SE 20 KT.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[RL3AO]

PAGASA has upgraded this to TD Cosme.

[senorpepr]

From PAGASA:

Severe Weather Bulletin Number TWO
Tropical Cyclone Alert: Tropical Depression "COSME"
Issued at 11:00 p.m., Wednesday, 14 May 2008 Tropical Depression "COSME" has remained almost stationary for the past six hours.
Location of Center: (as of 10:00 p.m.) 390 kms West Southwest of Calapan, Oriental Mindoro
Coordinates: 12.7ºN, 117.5ºE
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 55 kph near the center
Movement: North at 07 kph
Forecast Positions / Outlook:
Thursday evening: 290 kms Southwest of Iba, Zambales
Friday evening: 240 kms West of Iba, Zambales
Saturday evening: 280 kms North Northwest of Iba, Zambales or 150 kms West of Vigan City


No Public Storm Warning Signals Raised


Meanwhile, an Active Low Pressure Area (ALPA) was estimated at 150 kms East Northeast of Casiguran, Aurora (16.8ºN, 123.5ºE).

Tropical Depression "COSME" and the active low pressure area will enhance the southwest monsoon and bring rains over Luzon and western Visayas. Residents in low lying areas and near mountain slopes are advised to take all the necessary precautions against possible flashfloods and landslides.

Residents along the coastal areas of Luzon and western Visayas are alerted against big waves generated by this tropical cyclone.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 a.m. tomorrow.

[JonathanBelles]

We just had a cosme in the 2007 EPAC season.

[Chacor]

WTPQ21 RJTD 141800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141800UTC 11.8N 116.8E POOR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 151800UTC 14.0N 119.0E 150NM 70%
MOVE NE 07KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[Chacor]

WTPN21 PGTW 142000
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.1N 114.7E TO 16.3N 118.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 141951Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.6N 115.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 03
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY
INDICATE A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) POSIT-
IONED JUST EAST OF DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. A 141435Z AMSU IMAGE DEPICTS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT OF THE DISTURBANCE
WITH AN ELONGATED LLCC. THE 141051Z QUIKSCAT IMAGE SHOWS A MORE
DEFINED CENTER WITH 15-20 KNOT UNFLAGGED WINDS AND STRONGER WINDS
OVER THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH THE LLCC LOCATED UNDER
WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ENHANCED BY
MIDLATITUDE TROUGHING NORTH OF THE LLCC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. BASED ON THE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION
AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 152000Z.//

[wyq614]

Well, I just wonder why PAGASA gives 95W a name but fails to name 04W

[Ad Novoxium]

We just had a cosme in the 2007 EPAC season.

I'd rather have that Cosme. Remember the last PAGASA Cosme? A destructively magical 2004 storm named "Sudal"? But as it stands, this won't be repeating Sudal's reign. Just not powerful enough (sans location).