Bay of Bengal: Invest 96B

[zaqxsw75050]

[StormspinnerD2]

Not a good place for this one.

[RL3AO]

How quick and where is it moving?

[senorpepr]

How quick and where is it moving?

According to the NRL track file, over the past 12 hours it's been drifting northward at an average of 2 miles per hour.

Good news, it shouldn't have much time to develop into a significant cyclone.

Bad news, it will probably bring a good deal of rain to the region that is still recovering from Nargis.

[HURAKAN]

13/0230 UTC 15.9N 97.1E T1.0/1.0 96B -- Bay of Bengal

[HURAKAN]

[senorpepr]

[RL3AO]

Not good. At this point there is little difference between a slowly moving disturbance and a slowly moving 45 mph storm.

[Chacor]

DEMS- RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 13-05-2008

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN ( THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.)

BROKEN INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS OVER ANDAMAN SEA, BAY OF BENGAL BETWEEN LAT. 10.0 DEG N TO 20.0 DEG N EAST OF LONG. 90.0 DEG E , NORTH ANDAMAN SEA, SOUTH ARAKAN COAST, GULF OF MARTBAN ADJOINING SOUTH MYANMAR IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE AREA(.)

[Chacor]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.7N 97.1E,
APPROXIMATELY 85 NM SOUTHEAST OF YANGON, MYANMAR. RECENT ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING
DEEP CONVECTION NEAR A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
EVIDENT IN A 130106Z SSMI IMAGE. THE DISTURBANCE LIES SLIGHTLY
EQUATORWARD OF A SYNOPTIC SCALE, UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE, WITH
LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.

[HURAKAN]

13/0830 UTC 15.7N 96.7E T1.5/1.5 96B -- Bay of Bengal

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

A circulation is clearly visible over the Gulf of Malaban.

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 130930.GIF

[Chacor]

Euro's been progging this for some time now.

[HURAKAN]

[Chacor]

TPIO10 PGTW 131206

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 96B (SOUTH OF MYANMAR)

B. 13/1130Z

C. 16.3N

D. 96.7E

E. FIVE/MET7

F. T1.5/1.5/STT: D0.5/06HRS (13/1130Z)

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .30 WRAP YIELDS A 1.5 DT. PT AND MET
AGREE. SYS IS NEARLY OVER LAND.

BRANDON

[StormspinnerD2]

Now a low pressure area:

WWIN40 DEMS 131200
I W B 13TH EVN(.)

A LOPAR HAS FORMED OVER N ADMN SEA AND ADJ E C BAY OF BENGAL(.)
ASSTD CYCIR EXTDS UPTO 3.1KM ASL(.)
SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BECOME MORE MARKED(.)

[Ed Mahmoud]

When is the Indian monsoon forecast to start?

IIRC, the BoB TC season slows down markedly once monsoon season starts.

[HURAKAN]

Over land.

[senorpepr]

When is the Indian monsoon forecast to start?

IIRC, the BoB TC season slows down markedly once monsoon season starts.

June 1 is regarded as the date of onset of the monsoon in India, which is the average date on which the monsoon strikes Kerala over the years for which scientific data is available with the Indian Meteoreological Department.

The North Indian cyclone season has no official bounds, but cyclones tend to form between April and December, with peaks in May and November.

Yes, just before and just after the SW Monsoon is the peaks of the NIO season. There's isn't as much activity--a lull--during the SW Monsoon.