WPAC: TS Matmo (0803/04W, PAGASA: Dindo) NE of Luzon

[HURAKAN]

[zaqxsw75050]

i think this is the one ECMWF pointing to development instead of 95w

[KWT]

Yeah I agree with you its got what appears to be a good circulation on it looking at those two convective blobs. Still got to consolidate further but I wouldn't be surprised if something forms from it.

[HURAKAN]

Not bad at all.

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.0N 126.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 295 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. RECENT ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW CONSOLIDATION
OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AT THE EASTERN END OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH. A 130936Z QUIKSCAT IMAGE DEPICTS 15 TO 20 KNOTS
NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTI-
MATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.

[HURAKAN]

13/2030 UTC 15.8N 124.3E T1.5/1.5 96W -- West Pacific Ocean

[HURAKAN]

Floater: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/mtsatfloat1.html

[KWT]

Yep just needs to carry on expanding that convection over that circulation and we will have our next tropical depression...looks like the NW Pacific season is really getting going now as per normal.

[Chacor]

Euro's been progging a hit on Taiwan for a while now.

[RattleMan]

TCFA:

WTPN21 PGTW 140030
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.6N 126.0E TO 19.3N 123.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 080021Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.1N 125.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION
BUILDING NEAR A CONSOLIDATING AND IMPROVED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) AT THE EASTERN END OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. A 142020Z
SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO SHOWS INCREASED BANDING CONVECTION
WRAPPING INTO THE IMPROVED LLCC. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A
130936Z QUIKSCAT IMAGE DEPICTING 15 TO 20 KNOTS NEAR THE CIRCULATION
CENTER AND MORE RECENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND
KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT
AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE TROUGH IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEEPEN
INTO THE TROPICS KEEPING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR LOW OVER THE SYSTEM,
AS WELL AS SUSTAINING POLEWARD DIFFLUENCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
150030Z.//

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

WTPN31 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/062200Z MAY 08//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 16.4N 123.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4N 123.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 17.7N 123.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 19.7N 124.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 21.6N 126.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 23.4N 130.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 26.0N 137.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 27.2N 145.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 16.7N 123.6E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 04W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 195 NM NORTH-
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT SCATTEROMETRY AND DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE 25 KNOT WINDS AT THE SYSTEM CENTER.
TD 04W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BEFORE TURNING
NORTHWARD NEAR TAU 12. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TRACKING
NORTHEASTWARD AND WILL ACCELERATE. TD 04W IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 72 AND COMPLETE THIS TRANSITION
PRIOR TO TAU 96. THE DEPRESSION WILL INTENSIFY SLOWLY BEFORE
ENCOUNTERING COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED VERTICAL
SHEAR AFTER TAU 48. TD 04W WILL WEAKEN AFTER THIS TIME DUE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED NEGATIVE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 140030Z MAY 08 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 140030) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z, 142100Z,
150300Z AND 150900Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1000 HPAAT 15.5N 122.8E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST SLOWLY.POSITION POOR.MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

[Chacor]

994
WTPQ20 RJTD 141200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141200UTC 15.9N 122.8E POOR
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 151200UTC 20.7N 124.6E 150NM 70%
MOVE NNE 13KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[KWT]

Looks like they aren't expecting much of this system as it will eventually move into the cooler waters further NE and the shear increases. To be honest I kind of agree given it doesn't look stunning right now though the circulation still is pretty obvious.

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 141800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141800UTC 16.1N 123.2E POOR
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 151800UTC 21.3N 125.3E 150NM 70%
MOVE NNE 14KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[wyq614]

If as JTWC forecasted, it reaches the max intensity of 45kts, at least it will get a name from JMA.

[Ad Novoxium]

So if it gets a name, it'll be "Matmo", subbing in for the retired "Chata'an". Two first-use names this season, one a respell, and the other a replacement for a retired name.

[wyq614]

From Chinese Meteorological Agency (CMA)

目前在菲律宾吕宋岛以东的西北太平洋洋面上有一个热带气压活动，今天上午8时，低压中心位于北纬16.9度、东经123.7度，中心附近最大风力有7级（15米/秒）。
　　预计，热带低压将以每小时5-10公里的速度向东北偏北方向移动，并有可能加强成为热带风暴。受其影响，今天白天到夜间，巴士海峡将有7—8级大风。

A tropical depression is currently active to the east of Luzon Island, Philippines. At 8am this morning (note: Beijing Time ---wyq614), the td is centered at 16.9N 123.7E, the maximum sustained winds near the centre are 7 bft (15m/s)

It is expected that the td move north-northeastward at 5-10 km/h and will probably intensify to TS stage. Under its influence, from daytime to tonight, 7-8 bft gales is expected in Bashi Strait.

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 151200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0803 MATMO (0803) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 151200UTC 20.8N 126.6E FAIR
MOVE NE 18KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 150NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 161200UTC 24.5N 132.3E 100NM 70%
MOVE ENE 16KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 171200UTC 26.1N 138.8E 170NM 70%
MOVE ENE 15KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 181200UTC 27.2N 145.6E 290NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =