WPAC: Developed Low ex-Nakri

[RL3AO]

im confused how is 120kts the strongest in years? is it a 10 min wind avg?

Yes. 10 min avg.

I think 120 would be the strongest since 1997, but feel free to correct me if I'm wrong.

[StormspinnerD2]

Appears to be undergoing an eyewall cycle.

[Category 5]

NRL has it at 125kts. Clearly in an ERC though so that strengthening should stop.

[Eyewall]

NRL has it at 125kts. Clearly in an ERC though so that strengthening should stop.

are the windspeeds posted for west pacific storms on nrl a 10 min avg too?

[RL3AO]

NRL has it at 125kts. Clearly in an ERC though so that strengthening should stop.

are the windspeeds posted for west pacific storms on nrl a 10 min avg too?

No. NRL/JTWC use 1 min sustained.

[Eyewall]

No. NRL/JTWC use 1 min sustained.

thats what i thought becasue ive seen like 160kts before

[KWT]

125kts is still a pretty powerful system, the early part of the WPAC season has been developing a few decent powerful early typhoon's hasn't it!

Also yep that microwave imagery does strongly suggest EWRC with the double eyewall.

[cycloneye]

125kts


WTPN31 PGTW 292100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 06W (NAKRI) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
291800Z --- NEAR 16.4N 135.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4N 135.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 17.3N 134.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 18.4N 133.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 20.0N 133.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 22.2N 133.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 26.2N 136.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 30.5N 140.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 33.4N 150.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
292100Z POSITION NEAR 16.6N 134.8E.
TYPHOON (TY) 06W (NAKRI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 615 NM
SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTH WESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
300300Z, 300900Z, 301500Z AND 302100Z.
//

[Typhoon Hunter]

Hi Eyewall.

JMA is the official forcasting agency for the Wpac (RSMC Tokyo). They use 10 min average (which is the standard used world wide except by RSMC Miami.) NRL/JTWC are unofficial and use 1 min average.

I suppose the thread title should really say 105kts since that's officially the strength of Nakri at the moment according to JMA.

[Chacor]

Remains T6.5 from JMA at 00z.

[CrazyC83]

They use 10 min average (which is the standard used world wide except by RSMC Miami.)

IMD doesn't use 10-min average either (they go by 3-min sustained).

[Squarethecircle]

Looks very good on visible:

[Chacor]

They use 10 min average (which is the standard used world wide except by RSMC Miami.)

IMD doesn't use 10-min average either (they go by 3-min sustained).

Not 100% right. They use both 3- and 10-minute measurements.

[Cyclenall]

Is it just me, or is there a pinwheel eye forming with the spokes and all like on Hurricane Isabel with this? It doesn't mean it's annular, but just the appearence of it looks like Isabel did all of a sudden.

[Chacor]

Down to 90 kts.

WTPQ20 RJTD 300600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0805 NAKRI (0805)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 300600UTC 17.0N 134.1E GOOD
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 310600UTC 19.0N 133.6E 70NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
48HF 010600UTC 21.8N 134.5E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
72HF 020600UTC 25.1N 136.8E 220NM 70%
MOVE NE 10KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 300900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0805 NAKRI (0805)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 300900UTC 17.2N 133.9E GOOD
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 310900UTC 19.5N 133.5E 70NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
45HF 010600UTC 21.8N 134.5E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
69HF 020600UTC 25.1N 136.8E 220NM 70%
MOVE NE 10KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =

[Chacor]

Expected to re-strengthen to 95 kts.

WTPQ20 RJTD 301200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0805 NAKRI (0805)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 301200UTC 17.3N 133.5E GOOD
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 311200UTC 19.7N 133.1E 70NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 011200UTC 22.8N 134.3E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNE 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 021200UTC 26.8N 136.7E 220NM 70%
MOVE NNE 11KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =

[StormspinnerD2]

WTPQ20 RJTD 301800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0805 NAKRI (0805)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 301800UTC 17.9N 133.0E GOOD
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 311800UTC 20.4N 133.0E 70NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 011800UTC 23.8N 134.4E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 021800UTC 27.4N 136.8E 220NM 70%
MOVE NNE 11KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =

[Chacor]

Down to 70 kts.

WTPQ20 RJTD 310000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0805 NAKRI (0805)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 310000UTC 18.4N 132.8E GOOD
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 120NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 010000UTC 21.2N 133.0E 85NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 020000UTC 24.9N 134.8E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 030000UTC 29.0N 138.4E 250NM 70%
MOVE NE 13KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

[cycloneye]

584
WDPN31 PGTW 310300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 06W WARNING NR 17//
RMKS/
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

A. TYPHOON (TY) 06W (NAKRI) HAS TAKEN A POLEWARD TURN AND
WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM AN ESTIMATED INTENSITY OF 11O KNOTS
TO 80 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. FORWARD TRACK SPEED HAS SLOWED
TO 04 KNOTS AS THE STORM PROGRESSES THROUGH ITS TURN.
B. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE FIXES FROM
PGTW AND RJTD. WHILE A DEFINED EYE FEATURE IS NO LONGER EVIDENT IN
MULTISPECTRAL AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY, THE CENTER REMAINS
SUFFICIENTLY EVIDENT TO LEND GOOD CONFIDENCE TO THE CURRENT POSITION
ESIMATE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK
FIX VALUES OF 4.5 FROM BOTH PGTW AND RJTD. MODERATE NORTHERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INDUCED BY THE PERIPHERAL FLOW AROUND A SYNOPTIC
SCALE ANTICYCLONE ALOFT HAS DRIVEN THE RECENT WEAKENING TREND AND
EXPOSED MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. THE CYCLONE IS TURNING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE EXTENSION TO THE NORTHEAST.

3. FORECAST REASONING
A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS WARNING. HOWEVER, FORECAST INTENSITIES HAVE BEEN REDUCED
IN RESPONSE TO THE RECENT STEADY WEAKENING TREND AND THE FORECAST
TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY POLEWARD IN THE MEDIUM TO LONG TERM
TO REFLECT THE EXPECTATION OF A BROADER RECURVATURE.

B. TY 06W WILL PROCEED INCREASINGLY POLEWARD AND EVENTUALLY NORTH-
EASTWARD AS IT TRACKS AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE NEXT
72 HOURS. AS TY 06W ENCOUNTERS STRENGTHENING FLOW AHEAD OF THE MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH AROUND TAU 48, IT WILL BEGIN AN ALONG-TRACK ACCELER-
ATION. PERSISTENT NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN THE NEAR TERM AND
BOTH INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DECREASING OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT IN THE MEDIUM TO LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST ARE
EXPECTED TO STEADILY WEAKEN TY 06W THROUGH TAU 72. INTERACTION WITH
THE APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH, INCLUDING THE INCREASE IN VERT-
ICAL WIND SHEAR AND INTRODUCTION OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE CYCLONE CIRCULATION, WILL INDUCE THE FIRST
STAGE OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AROUND TAU 48.

C. TY 06W WILL BECOME FULLY EMBEDDED IN THE MIDLATITUDE FLOW
PATTERN AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING TROUGH IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLOWLY AS IT COMPLETES
THE TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW DURING THIS PERIOD.
FORECAST TEAM: ALPHA//