WPAC: Developed Low ex-Nakri
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WPAC: Developed Low ex-Nakri
Last edited by Chacor on Tue Jun 03, 2008 7:50 am, edited 14 times in total.
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THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.1N
145.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.8N 141.5E, APPROXIMATELY 215 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF YAP. RECENT ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 252145Z
SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW PRELIMINARY SIGNS OF WEAK CONVECTIVE
BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP TOWARDS A BROAD AND WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. A RECENT WESTERLY WIND SHIFT IN KOROR SUGGESTS
THAT THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERLY WAVE
HAS BEGUN TO BUILD DOWN TO THE SURFACE. NEARBY MARITIME OBSERV-
ATIONS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OF KOROR CONFIRM WESTERLY WINDS AS
WELL, WHICH WILL INITIATE CYCLONIC TURNING AT THE SURFACE. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DIFFLUENCE.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WILL ALSO
FACILITATE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO AN OVERALL FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
145.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.8N 141.5E, APPROXIMATELY 215 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF YAP. RECENT ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 252145Z
SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW PRELIMINARY SIGNS OF WEAK CONVECTIVE
BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP TOWARDS A BROAD AND WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. A RECENT WESTERLY WIND SHIFT IN KOROR SUGGESTS
THAT THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERLY WAVE
HAS BEGUN TO BUILD DOWN TO THE SURFACE. NEARBY MARITIME OBSERV-
ATIONS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OF KOROR CONFIRM WESTERLY WINDS AS
WELL, WHICH WILL INITIATE CYCLONIC TURNING AT THE SURFACE. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DIFFLUENCE.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WILL ALSO
FACILITATE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO AN OVERALL FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
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THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.8N
141.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 140.0E, APPROXIMATELY 150 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF YAP. RECENT ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TOWARDS A DEVELOPING BROAD AND WEAK LOW
TO MID LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT WITH
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DIFFLUENCE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WILL ALSO FACILITATE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO
AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE LOW LEVEL
STRUCTURE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROP-
ICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
141.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 140.0E, APPROXIMATELY 150 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF YAP. RECENT ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TOWARDS A DEVELOPING BROAD AND WEAK LOW
TO MID LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT WITH
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DIFFLUENCE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WILL ALSO FACILITATE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO
AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE LOW LEVEL
STRUCTURE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROP-
ICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
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P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
Re: 91W INVEST — SE of Mariana Islands — JTWC: FAIR
WWJP25 RJTD 261200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 261200.
WARNING VALID 271200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1010 HPA
AT 11.8N 139.2E SEA WEST OF MARIANAS MOVING NORTHWEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 994 HPA
AT 42N 150E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 10 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN 700 MILES OF LOW EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 300
MILES ELSEWHERE.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN MIDDLE OF SEA OF JAPAN YELLOW SEA EAST CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 34N 137E 36N 141E
42N 141E 47N 152E 55N 162E 60N 164E 60N 180E 42N 180E 26N 162E 27N
137E 34N 137E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1016 HPA AT 50N 170E ALMOST STATIONARY.
LOW 1016 HPA AT 59N 177E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1010 HPA AT 32N 127E ESE 10 KT.
HIGH 1010 HPA AT 38N 132E EAST 10 KT.
HIGH 1020 HPA AT 57N 145E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1016 HPA AT 26N 158E ALMOST STATIONARY.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 25N 130E TO 27N 135E 29N 137E 30N 142E 33N 150E
35N 152E 36N 155E 38N 159E 37N 161E.
JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
WARNING AND SUMMARY 261200.
WARNING VALID 271200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1010 HPA
AT 11.8N 139.2E SEA WEST OF MARIANAS MOVING NORTHWEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 994 HPA
AT 42N 150E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 10 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN 700 MILES OF LOW EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 300
MILES ELSEWHERE.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN MIDDLE OF SEA OF JAPAN YELLOW SEA EAST CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 34N 137E 36N 141E
42N 141E 47N 152E 55N 162E 60N 164E 60N 180E 42N 180E 26N 162E 27N
137E 34N 137E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1016 HPA AT 50N 170E ALMOST STATIONARY.
LOW 1016 HPA AT 59N 177E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1010 HPA AT 32N 127E ESE 10 KT.
HIGH 1010 HPA AT 38N 132E EAST 10 KT.
HIGH 1020 HPA AT 57N 145E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1016 HPA AT 26N 158E ALMOST STATIONARY.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 25N 130E TO 27N 135E 29N 137E 30N 142E 33N 150E
35N 152E 36N 155E 38N 159E 37N 161E.
JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression (91W FAIR) - W of Marianas
811
WWJP25 RJTD 261200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 261200.
WARNING VALID 271200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1010 HPA
AT 11.8N 139.2E SEA WEST OF MARIANAS MOVING NORTHWEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 994 HPA
AT 42N 150E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 10 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN 700 MILES OF LOW EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 300
MILES ELSEWHERE.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN MIDDLE OF SEA OF JAPAN YELLOW SEA EAST CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 34N 137E 36N 141E
42N 141E 47N 152E 55N 162E 60N 164E 60N 180E 42N 180E 26N 162E 27N
137E 34N 137E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1016 HPA AT 50N 170E ALMOST STATIONARY.
LOW 1016 HPA AT 59N 177E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1010 HPA AT 32N 127E ESE 10 KT.
HIGH 1010 HPA AT 38N 132E EAST 10 KT.
HIGH 1020 HPA AT 57N 145E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1016 HPA AT 26N 158E ALMOST STATIONARY.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 25N 130E TO 27N 135E 29N 137E 30N 142E 33N 150E
35N 152E 36N 155E 38N 159E 37N 161E
WWJP25 RJTD 261200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 261200.
WARNING VALID 271200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1010 HPA
AT 11.8N 139.2E SEA WEST OF MARIANAS MOVING NORTHWEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 994 HPA
AT 42N 150E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 10 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN 700 MILES OF LOW EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 300
MILES ELSEWHERE.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN MIDDLE OF SEA OF JAPAN YELLOW SEA EAST CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 34N 137E 36N 141E
42N 141E 47N 152E 55N 162E 60N 164E 60N 180E 42N 180E 26N 162E 27N
137E 34N 137E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1016 HPA AT 50N 170E ALMOST STATIONARY.
LOW 1016 HPA AT 59N 177E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1010 HPA AT 32N 127E ESE 10 KT.
HIGH 1010 HPA AT 38N 132E EAST 10 KT.
HIGH 1020 HPA AT 57N 145E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1016 HPA AT 26N 158E ALMOST STATIONARY.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 25N 130E TO 27N 135E 29N 137E 30N 142E 33N 150E
35N 152E 36N 155E 38N 159E 37N 161E
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senorpepr
- Military Met/Moderator
- Posts: 12542
- Age: 41
- Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
- Location: Mackenbach, Germany
- Contact:
WTPN21 PGTW 262200
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.6N 138.9E TO 17.0N 137.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 261800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.9N 138.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
15 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 12.9N 138.7E, APPROXIMATELY
205 NM NORTH OF YAP, HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. RECENT
ANIMATED INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP
CONVECTION PERSISTING NEAR A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) ALSO EVIDENT IN A 261631Z AMSR-E MICROWAVE IMAGE.
A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-PROPAGATING
TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO BUILD TOWARD THE SURFACE. AS A RESULT,
SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE WEAK WEST-
ERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE EQUATORWARD PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC,
AND THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED 261631Z AMSR-E IMAGE SHOWS APPARENT
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THIS FORMATIVE LLCC FROM ALL
DIRECTIONS. GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ARE EXPECTED TO FACILITATE CONTINUED
STRUCTURAL IMPROVEMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. BASED ON EVIDENCE OF
IMPROVING LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL SUPPORT,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 272200Z.//
NNNN
Last edited by senorpepr on Mon May 26, 2008 5:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Added TCFA text and full-size graphic.
Reason: Added TCFA text and full-size graphic.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression (91W TCFA) - W of Marianas
Looking great. Convection just needs to consolidate a little more.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
WTPN31 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/262151Z MAY 08//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z --- NEAR 13.7N 138.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7N 138.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 15.0N 137.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 15.9N 137.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 16.7N 137.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 17.6N 136.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 19.0N 136.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 21.4N 138.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 24.2N 141.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
270300Z POSITION NEAR 14.0N 138.1E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 06W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM
NORTH OF YAP, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS
REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 262151Z MAY 08 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 262200) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270900Z,
271500Z, 272100Z AND 280300Z.
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