EPAC: Tropical Depression Alma (01E)

[Meso]

The comparison between earlier today and now



Drawing in lots of moisture

[NDG]

By looking at early vis sat loop, I still have hard time finding any SE surface winds on the SE quadrant of the broad circulation. But looking better.

I may be wrong, but I still do not see any SE winds on the SE quadrant, LLC still a long way to get established.

[Ed Mahmoud]

By looking at early vis sat loop, I still have hard time finding any SE surface winds on the SE quadrant of the broad circulation. But looking better.

I may be wrong, but I still do not see any SE winds on the SE quadrant, LLC still a long way to get established.

Shouldn't the NE quad have SE winds, and the SE quad SW winds?

[NDG]

By looking at early vis sat loop, I still have hard time finding any SE surface winds on the SE quadrant of the broad circulation. But looking better.

I may be wrong, but I still do not see any SE winds on the SE quadrant, LLC still a long way to get established.

Shouldn't the NE quad have SE winds, and the SE quad SW winds?

I should had said eastern quadrant not to create any confusion, tropical low pressures draw in air from all quadrants of the storm.

[Thunder44]

QS showed northerly and SW winds. It most likely has SE winds.

[HURAKAN]

[curtadams]

With that QS pass it's hard to see how there isn't a LLC there although it could still be associated with the ITCZ

[cycloneye]

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert issued:

822
WTPN21 PGTW 281530
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
065 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.8N 88.1W TO 12.1N 87.3W WITHIN
THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE
OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE
AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 281200Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 88.0W.
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.0N 88.0W,
APPROXIMATELY 135 NM SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO MASACHAP, NICARAGUA.
RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SLOWLY
CONSOLIDATING CONVECTION OVER A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
A 281150Z SSMIS MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICTS IMPROVED CONVECTIVE
BANDING AND A BETTER DEFINED LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVED
CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 291530Z.
//

[JonathanBelles]

wow! I certainly wasnt expecting that so soon.

[RL3AO]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED MAY 28 2008

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
SURFACE LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TRPCL CYCLONE WITHIN NEXT 36-48 HRS
...AT 10N88W 1006 MB GETTING MORE LOW LEVEL ORGANIZATION WHILE
SLOWLY IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. LITTLE MOVEMENT AT THIS
TIME BUT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NE AS SECOND LOW PRES OVER
SW CARIBBEAN INTERACTS WITH IT. ASSOCIATED STRONG CONVECTION
AFFECTS S NICARAGUA AND MOST OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA.
CONDITIONS BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING
WITH PLENTY OF WARM MOIST TRPCL AIR MASS INFLUX FROM THE SW.
WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT AND GUSTY WITHIN 150 NM S AND SE
QUADRANTS. HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL AMERICA S OF MEXICO TO PANAMA WITHIN NEXT 48 HOURS.

INTERACTION BETWEEN BOTH LOW PRES CENTERS ADDS UNCERTAINTY TO
DEVELOPMENT FORECAST AND THEIR TRACKS...BUT PROXIMITY TO LAND
AREAS COULD CURTAIL SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF EITHER ONE FOR
THE TIME BEING. COMPOUNDING THE SCENARIO IS TRPCL WAVE ALONG
80W DISCUSSED BELOW WHICH IS LIKELY BOOST THE PROBABILITY OF
INTENSIFICATION AS MUCH AS TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF ANY FORECAST.

[KWT]

To be honest I'm not surprised about the TCFA, it looks real good and the fact that it looks like it nearly has a closed off circulation and is starting to form a nice looking inflow channel all suggests to me we nearly have our first tropical depression of the EPAC season. As they say it also seems to be gaining decent banding as well now.

[NDG]

TCFA was from 12z data they were looking at this morning.

*edited to clarify

[Evil Jeremy]

I love the NRL for everything it has, but I think that one of its best features are the really high resolution photos it has of the storms on the page.

Looking at the big image of 90E, it looks like it is getting sheared, at least in the upper levels. There also seems to be a lack of convection on the northern side of the invest. What do you guys think?

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... D=1km_zoom

[MGC]

Without a doubt, 90E has become better organized since yesterday evening. If this trend continues then it is possible a TD could form as soon as tomorrow.....MGC

[wyq614]

Glad to see the first significant tropical system of EPAC of the year 2008. But unfortunately it is too close to land and its development may be hampered. Surely its intensity will not catch up with the first tropical cyclone of NWPAC (Neoguri)

[Thunder44]

I love the NRL for everything it has, but I think that one of its best features are the really high resolution photos it has of the storms on the page.

Looking at the big image of 90E, it looks like it is getting sheared, at least in the upper levels. There also seems to be a lack of convection on the northern side of the invest. What do you guys think?

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... D=1km_zoom

I don't see alot of shear. The ULL in GOM, is pushing down a trough to it's west that is restricting outflow in the NW Quad. It's also causing the air to sink on the north and west side, preventing more convection from forming.

[cycloneye]

547
ABPZ20 KNHC 281723
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT WED MAY 28 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEARING THE WEST COAST OF COSTA RICA
AND NICARAGUA IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA AND THE ADJACENT CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT
ANY TIME BEFORE IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD OR NORTHWARD OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. REGARDLESS OF ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT... TORRENTIAL RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER
PORTIONS OF PANAMA... COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA

[Chacor]

Going to bed now (1:34 AM) but expect TD One-E by the time I wake up.

[cycloneye]

[wyq614]

Me, too (1:37 AM), but by the time I wake up I hope to see Alma coming.