EPAC: Tropical Depression Alma (01E)

[ExBailbonds]

Floyd5
There being technical on ya. But they are correct. True landfall is when the center of the eye contacts land mass.

[hurricanefloyd5]

Floyd5
There being technical on ya. But they are correct. True landfall is when the center of the eye contacts land mass.

tyvm everyone for your thought they really do help!!!!

It looks to me like the center was/is over landfall but I guess the eye/center is abit unclear or so!!

[cycloneye]

No Hurricane.

WHXX01 KMIA 291820
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1820 UTC THU MAY 29 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE ALMA (EP012008) 20080529 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080529 1800 080530 0600 080530 1800 080531 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.0N 86.9W 13.6N 87.3W 14.9N 87.8W 16.0N 88.5W
BAMD 12.0N 86.9W 13.6N 87.7W 14.9N 88.8W 15.6N 89.7W
BAMM 12.0N 86.9W 13.8N 87.3W 15.2N 87.9W 16.2N 88.7W
LBAR 12.0N 86.9W 13.6N 87.6W 15.5N 88.8W 17.1N 90.1W
SHIP 55KTS 74KTS 87KTS 96KTS
DSHP 55KTS 40KTS 31KTS 28KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080531 1800 080601 1800 080602 1800 080603 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.1N 89.5W 17.8N 91.5W 17.1N 93.8W 15.9N 95.6W
BAMD 15.8N 90.4W 15.3N 91.6W 15.2N 93.2W 15.2N 95.2W
BAMM 16.9N 89.4W 17.0N 91.0W 16.4N 93.7W 15.4N 96.6W
LBAR 18.2N 91.2W 19.3N 93.2W 19.7N 95.1W 20.3N 97.4W
SHIP 98KTS 98KTS 94KTS 90KTS
DSHP 27KTS 26KTS 21KTS 18KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.0N LONCUR = 86.9W DIRCUR = 350DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 10.7N LONM12 = 86.7W DIRM12 = 346DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 9.8N LONM24 = 86.6W
WNDCUR = 55KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 994MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 30NM RD34SE = 90NM RD34SW = 90NM RD34NW = 60NM

$$

[KWT]

Nope held at 55kts, still a pretty strong tropical storm. IMO given the strcture it clearly has I'd say its 60kts, maybe even 65kts (which would be hurricane strength) but whatever it is, Alma still has turnt out to be a good deal stronger then most was expecting 24hrs ago.

[Sanibel]

The upper appearance looks to be more east than the surface feature. It could be entering the mild left curve seen in the models. Crossover will depend on how far west it goes.


Heavy rain into Costa Rica and Nicaragua.

[Thunder44]

Looks like the eye is making landfall now along the Nicaragua coast.

[tolakram]

Nice timing on this picture.

[KWT]

Yep looks like its just coming ashore now, just the northern part of the eye coming ashore, looks like the system is just starting to weaken a little bit now as the northern part of the eye comes ashore. Still got a great structure mind you.

[HURAKAN]

29/1745 UTC 12.0N 87.0W T3.5/3.5 ALMA -- East Pacific Ocean

[RL3AO]

3.5= 60kt right?

[KWT]

3.5 I believe is 55kts, which is just where the NHC put it right now.

[dixiebreeze]

3.5 I believe is 55kts, which is just where the NHC put it right now.

NRA has it with winds at 55. Alma is shaping up to be a real threat.

[KWT]

Yep the main threat is still going to be the rainfall no doubt because of the slow motionm of this tropical storm. Its certainly got alot of moisture wrapped around the circulation and so there could well be a heck of alot of rainfall, which obviously would really raise the chances of things like mudslides and landslides.

[Cyclenall]

Was the reason they didn't upgrade it to a hurricane because the eye was too cloud filled?

It appears this landfall is more east then Hurricane Adrian was in 2005.

[Cyclone1]

First time seeing it today, excellent structure, I'm not sure about hurricane though.

[cycloneye]

From the 2 PM PDT advisory.Made landfall.

THE CENTER OF ALMA MADE LANDFALL AROUND 12 PM PDT...1900Z...ON THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR THE CITY OF LEON. AT 200
PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALMA WAS LOCATED
ON THE COAST NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.0 WEST OR ABOUT
50 MILES... 85 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA AND ABOUT
175 MILES...280 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR.

ALMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. THIS TRACK
SHOULD BRING THE CYCLONE FARTHER INLAND TONIGHT. A GRADUAL TURN TO
THE NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN TONIGHT AS THE CYCLONE MOVES
FARTHER INLAND.

[Evil Jeremy]

I am not sure that it made landfall 2 hours ago. I would say within the past hour, but the point is it is made landfall, and it struck at a more southern point than anyone would of thought of last night.

[Category 5]

Amazing the difference a few hours makes. Anyone who said this would make a run at Hurricane strength last night would have been wishcasting. Thats what keeps this interesting, things can change in a second.

[cycloneye]

WTPZ21 KNHC 292028
TCMEP1
TROPICAL STORM ALMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012008
2100 UTC THU MAY 29 2008

AT 2 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF EL SALVADOR HAS
DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE COAST OF EL SALVADOR.

AT 2 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS
HAVE REPLACED THE HURRICANE WARNING WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

AT 2 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF COSTA RICA HAS
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF JACO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF
CENTRAL AMERICA FROM JACO COSTA RICA NORTHWESTWARD INCLUDING
NICARAGUA...HONDURAS AND EL SALVADOR.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 87.0W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 30NE 90SE 90SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 87.0W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 86.9W

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 13.6N 87.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 90SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 15.0N 88.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 16.5N 90.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.4N 87.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS


WTPZ31 KNHC 292029
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALMA ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012008
200 PM PDT THU MAY 29 2008

...CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALMA MAKING LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN
PACIFIC COAST OF NICARAGUA...

AT 2 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF EL SALVADOR HAS
DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE COAST OF EL SALVADOR.

AT 2 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS
HAVE REPLACED THE HURRICANE WARNING WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

AT 2 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF COSTA RICA HAS
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF JACO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF
CENTRAL AMERICA FROM JACO COSTA RICA NORTHWESTWARD INCLUDING
NICARAGUA...HONDURAS AND EL SALVADOR.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE CENTER OF ALMA MADE LANDFALL AROUND 12 PM PDT...1900Z...ON THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR THE CITY OF LEON. AT 200
PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALMA WAS LOCATED
ON THE COAST NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.0 WEST OR ABOUT
50 MILES... 85 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA AND ABOUT
175 MILES...280 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR.

ALMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. THIS TRACK
SHOULD BRING THE CYCLONE FARTHER INLAND TONIGHT. A GRADUAL TURN TO
THE NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN TONIGHT AS THE CYCLONE MOVES
FARTHER INLAND.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
MAINLY TO SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.

ALMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 15
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM COSTA RICA
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...EL
SALVADOR...GUATEMALA AND BELIZE. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL
AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN.
THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 200 PM PDT POSITION...12.4 N...87.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800
PM PDT.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS

WTPZ41 KNHC 292030
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM ALMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012008
200 PM PDT THU MAY 29 2008

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE EYE FEATURE IS CROSSING THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR THE CITY OF LEON. THE
CLOUD PATTERN CONSISTS OF A VERY TIGHT CONVECTIVE COIL SURROUNDING
THE EYE FEATURE. DVORAK T-NUMBERS SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF
55 KNOTS. SINCE THE CENTER IS ALREADY MOVING INLAND AND A LARGE
PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS ALREADY INTERACTING WITH THE HIGH
TERRAIN...A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...TORRENTIAL
RAINS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER A LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL AMERICA.

ALMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH AT 8 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE SHOULD
GRADUALLY TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BUILDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...AS INDICATED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE OVER LAND FOR THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS UNTIL DISSIPATION. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE WHICH UNANIMOUSLY TURNS THE CYCLONE
NORTHWESTWARD AND WESTWARD OVER CENTRAL AMERICA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/2100Z 12.4N 87.0W 55 KT...CROSSING THE COAST
12HR VT 30/0600Z 13.6N 87.3W 35 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 30/1800Z 15.0N 88.0W 25 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 31/0600Z 16.5N 90.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 31/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS

[Cyclenall]

This is where I believe it was at peak strength. The eye looked like it was clearing out before clouding back over. This is why I thought it was Hurricane Alma, because of this image here:



I haven't read anything from the NHC today, did any of the discussions talk about how far east it is?