EPAC: Tropical Depression Alma (01E)

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#421 Postby StormspinnerD2 » Fri May 30, 2008 2:55 am

There's nothing in the layer mean wind analyses that indicate a mid-level circulation anywhere near 17N 86W.
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Re: EPac: Tropical Storm ALMA 01E Advisories

#422 Postby Thunder44 » Fri May 30, 2008 3:39 am

000
WTPZ31 KNHC 300831
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALMA ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012008
200 AM PDT FRI MAY 30 2008

...ALMA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION OVER HONDURAS...RAINFALL THREAT
CONTINUES...

AT 2 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENTS OF HONDURAS AND EL
SALVADOR HAVE DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR THEIR
COUNTRIES. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
PACIFIC COAST OF NICARAGUA. THIS WARNING WILL LIKELY BE
DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 AM PDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALMA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.6 WEST OR INLAND
OVER HONDURAS ABOUT 45 MILES...75 KM...NORTHWEST OF TEGUCIGALPA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...
19 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ALMA OR ITS
REMNANT CIRCULATION WILL BE MOVING OVER WESTERN HONDURAS TODAY AND
COULD REACH GUATEMALA OR BELIZE LATE TODAY OR EARLY SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY SATURDAY OVER NORTHERN
CENTRAL AMERICA.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

ALMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 15
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM COSTA RICA
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...EL
SALVADOR...GUATEMALA AND BELIZE. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL
AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN.
THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 200 AM PDT POSITION...14.6 N...87.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800
AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



000
WTPZ41 KNHC 300836
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012008
200 AM PDT FRI MAY 30 2008

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATION INDICATE THAT ALMA HAS
BECOME DISORGANIZED OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF HONDURAS. THE CENTER
PASSED NEAR TEGUCIGALPA A FEW HOURS AGO WITH ONLY LIGHT WINDS
REPORTED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KT...WITH
THESE WINDS LIKELY OCCURRING ONLY IN BANDS OF SQUALLS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 345/10. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES SHOULD CAUSE
A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...AND THEN TOWARD THE WEST OF
THE SYSTEM SURVIVES LONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS ALONG THE LEFT SIDE OF GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THE
ENVELOPE...CALLING FOR ALMA TO BRIEFLY MOVE OVER THE GULF OF
HONDURAS BEFORE PASSING OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. THE NEW TRACK IS SIMILAR TO...BUT A LITTLE FASTER
THAN...THE PREVIOUS TRACK.

SINCE ALMA IS FORECAST TO MOVE MOSTLY OVER LAND...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 12
HR AND DISSIPATE BY 48 HR. THAT BEING SAID...ALMA IS UNDER A LARGE
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HR. SO...IF THE CYCLONE SPENDS
MORE TIME OVER WATER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS
SHOW A LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS IN THE NEXT 12-24
HR. THIS IS MOST LIKELY ALMA OR ITS REMNANTS...BUT IT ALSO COULD
BE A SECOND LOW FORMING IN THE BROAD MONSOON FLOW OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA.

DESPITE THE FORECAST WEAKENING AND EVENTUAL DISSIPATION...THIS
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND FLOODING
HAZARD TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FOR ABOUT THE NEXT TWO DAYS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/0900Z 14.6N 87.6W 25 KT...INLAND
12HR VT 30/1800Z 15.9N 88.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 31/0600Z 17.3N 89.2W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 31/1800Z 18.3N 90.5W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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#423 Postby KWT » Fri May 30, 2008 4:20 am

The track is real interesting, clearly the energy could end up n the BOC and whilst Alma itself may well die off overland there is going to be a very large amount of energy present and if it can get into the BOC then its going to hae at least a chance of re-development.

Needs to be watched very closely!
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Re: EPAC: Tropical Storm Alma (01E)

#424 Postby Thunder44 » Fri May 30, 2008 4:58 am

AP article on the storm. It looks like the city of Leon was hardest hit:

Tropical storm pounds Central America
By FILADELFO ALEMAN – 3 hours ago

MANAGUA, Nicaragua (AP) — Tropical Storm Alma slammed into Nicaragua's coast Thursday as the first such storm of the eastern Pacific season, forcing tens of thousand of people to evacuate and flooding low-lying areas, before pushing into neighboring Honduras.

The National Hurricane Center said Alma was the first tropical storm in the available records to make landfall on Central America's Pacific coast. Such storms normally make landfall farther west, along Mexico's Pacific coast. Tropical storms often hit Central America's Atlantic coast.

Alma reached land near the Nicaraguan colonial city of Leon, whose Mayor, Transito Tellez, said houses had been destroyed and power knocked out by the storm. Rescue personnel described houses whose roofs had been blow off, and homes that had been crushed by fallen trees.

The storm forced the evacuation of as many as 25,000 people in the area, and telephone service was also knocked out, said Civil Defense Director Mario Perez Cassar.

"The wind whipped up the sand, and it lashed your face like sandpaper," said Erasmo Lopez, a fisherman in the coastal hamlet of Poneloya, near where Alma made landfall. "The trees were shaking like crazy, cars were shuddering, and you couldn't even see in front of you."

Nicaragua's Radio Ya reported that a 30-year-old man was electrocuted in Trasbayo, 40 miles (60 kilometers) southeast of Managua, after a power line snapped under high winds.

The National Hurricane Center in Miami said Alma was weakening as it headed inland. By early Friday it had maximum sustained winds of around 40 mph (65 kph) and was moving over southern Honduras at a speed of 9 mph (15 kph).

It was expected to weaken to a tropical depression before reaching Guatemala or Belize late Friday or Saturday.

The fast-growing storm took forecasters and many in Central America by surprise. Residents scrambled to prepare for the storm before it hit.

People crowded Managua supermarkets to buy food, water, candles and batteries, and schools canceled classes and were on standby to become temporary shelters. Many flights were also grounded.

The storm wrapped the Costa Rican capital of San Jose in a dense fog, slowing traffic to a crawl and causing dozens of accidents.

Along the coast, some 200 families were evacuated to more than 160 storm shelters set up after Alma dumped rain over the country for 24 hours. Landslides blocked a few highways.

"Last year, a little water came in the house, but now it is completely flooded," Clara Bermudez said as she was taken by boat to a shelter in Parrita.

The eastern Pacific hurricane season began May 15.

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5g7Sr ... AD90VPVJO0
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Re: EPac: Tropical Storm ALMA 01E Advisories

#425 Postby liveweatherman » Fri May 30, 2008 6:33 am

Latest Forecast Model Here: Tropical Depression Alma Forecast Track (Active)

Forecast Advisory
Tropical Forecast #7

WTPZ21 KNHC 300831
TCMEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012008
0900 UTC FRI MAY 30 2008

AT 2 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENTS OF HONDURAS AND EL
SALVADOR HAVE DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR THEIR
COUNTRIES. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
PACIFIC COAST OF NICARAGUA. THIS WARNING WILL LIKELY BE
DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 87.6W AT 30/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 87.6W AT 30/0900Z...INLAND
AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 87.4W

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 15.9N 88.3W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 17.3N 89.2W...INLAND REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 18.3N 90.5W...INLAND REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 87.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z
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#426 Postby Chacor » Fri May 30, 2008 6:48 am

WTPZ31 KNHC 301127
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012008
500 AM PDT FRI MAY 30 2008

...ALMA RAPIDLY BECOMING A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...RAINFALL
THREAT CONTINUES...

AT 5 AM PDT...12900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM PDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALMA WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.0 WEST OR INLAND
OVER HONDURAS ABOUT 85 MILES...135 KM...NORTHWEST OF TEGUCIGALPA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...
19 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ALMA OR ITS
REMNANT CIRCULATION WILL BE MOVING OVER WESTERN HONDURAS TODAY AND
COULD REACH GUATEMALA OR BELIZE LATE TODAY OR EARLY SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 25 MPH...40 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

ALMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 15
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM COSTA RICA
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...EL
SALVADOR...GUATEMALA AND BELIZE. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL
AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN.
THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 500 AM PDT POSITION...15.0 N...88.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...25
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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#427 Postby Chacor » Fri May 30, 2008 9:35 am

178
WTPZ31 KNHC 301435
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALMA ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012008
800 AM PDT FRI MAY 30 2008

...ALMA DISSIPATING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AMERICA...

AT 800 AM PDT...1500Z...THE REMNANTS OF ALMA WERE LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.2 WEST...NEAR THE BORDER OF
HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA.

THE REMNANTS ARE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 25 MPH...35 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

THE REMNANTS OF ALMA ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 10 TO 15 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM COSTA RICA
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...EL
SALVADOR...GUATEMALA AND BELIZE. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL
AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN.
THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...15.4 N...88.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...25
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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#428 Postby Chacor » Fri May 30, 2008 9:36 am

Final advisories issued.
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#429 Postby Chacor » Fri May 30, 2008 9:37 am

WTPZ41 KNHC 301435
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012008
800 AM PDT FRI MAY 30 2008

THE DEPRESSION HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
CENTRAL AMERICA AND NO LONGER HAS A CIRCULATION CENTER. THE REMNANTS
OF ALMA ARE STILL ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA...AND THERE REMAINS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND FLOODING. THIS WILL BE THE
LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.

IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...
ASSOCIATED LARGELY WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...PREVAILS OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND WILL BE
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/1500Z 15.4N 88.2W 20 KT..REMNANT LOW
12HR VT 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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#430 Postby RL3AO » Fri May 30, 2008 9:42 am

Bye Alma. See you in 2014.
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#431 Postby KWT » Fri May 30, 2008 10:30 am

Yep not a bad little teaser for the hurricane season, quick development but thankfully never got too strong before landfall despite explosive development before landfall.
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Re: EPAC: Tropical Storm Alma (01E)

#432 Postby CycloneNL » Fri May 30, 2008 11:00 am

Image

Of the coast of Belize ?
Is that Alma or something else ?
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Re: EPAC: Tropical Storm Alma (01E)

#433 Postby RL3AO » Fri May 30, 2008 11:37 am

CycloneNL wrote:Of the coast of Belize ?
Is that Alma or something else ?



Tropical wave.
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#434 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri May 30, 2008 12:43 pm

This becomes TD1 if it redevelops over the Caribbean, correct?
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Re:

#435 Postby senorpepr » Fri May 30, 2008 12:44 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:This becomes TD1 if it redevelops over the Caribbean, correct?


Bingo.
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Re:

#436 Postby RL3AO » Fri May 30, 2008 12:45 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:This becomes TD1 if it redevelops over the Caribbean, correct?


Yep.

THE DEPRESSION HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
CENTRAL AMERICA AND NO LONGER HAS A CIRCULATION CENTER.
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#437 Postby Chacor » Fri May 30, 2008 8:11 pm

Five dead from a plane crash in Tegucigalpa:

A Miami-bound passenger plane landing in the Honduran capital Tegucigalpa has overshot a runway, leaving at least five people dead, officials say.

A further 38 people were injured as the plane ploughed down an embankment and crashed into cars on a road, splitting into three pieces.

TACA airline's Flight 390 was arriving from El Salvador, carrying at least 124 passengers plus crew.

Officials say the plane was trying to land in heavy rain and fog.


http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7428423.stm
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Re:

#438 Postby pojo » Fri May 30, 2008 9:05 pm

Chacor wrote:Five dead from a plane crash in Tegucigalpa:

A Miami-bound passenger plane landing in the Honduran capital Tegucigalpa has overshot a runway, leaving at least five people dead, officials say.

A further 38 people were injured as the plane ploughed down an embankment and crashed into cars on a road, splitting into three pieces.

TACA airline's Flight 390 was arriving from El Salvador, carrying at least 124 passengers plus crew.

Officials say the plane was trying to land in heavy rain and fog.


http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7428423.stm



Teguci is one of hardest airports to land at.... aircraft over shooting the runway are common here. Because of the mountainous environment certain speeds and descent rates must be kept in order to safely land.... we have safety briefings all the time about incidents like this in Teguci.

the 440th Flying Badgers lost an C130 aircraft as it was trying to land in Teguci...
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#439 Postby Chacor » Sat May 31, 2008 1:40 am

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#440 Postby Ad Novoxium » Sat May 31, 2008 3:06 pm

Just got done gathering some sources for the Wiki Alma page. Current tolls say 4 dead (one in a car crash, two electrocutions, one drowning), an indirect death due to a boat drowning, and 7 dead from the plane crash, plus 10 missing. So tolls are 4 direct, 8 indirect, 10 missing.

By this point, in my opinion, Alma has, oh, maybe a 5% chance of being retired, but this is just speculation.
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