Arthur's remnents near the BOC

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The LLC is still where it was 2 days ago. That is near 18.25 north/92.3 west, and has not moved much at all. Also on the water vapor you have the envirnoment becoming much more moist over the last 12 hours, so a more favorable envirnoment. What I'm watching for is 91E to be pulled north and combine with what is lefted of Arthur over the next 24-36 hours, once it doe's so, I expect a weak tropical system to move into the BOC. I don't expect anything more then 35-40 knots tops as of this time. But its worth keeping a eye on.

[lrak]

The LLC is still where it was 2 days ago. That is near 18.25 north/92.3 west, and has not moved much at all. Also on the water vapor you have the envirnoment becoming much more moist over the last 12 hours, so a more favorable envirnoment. What I'm watching for is 91E to be pulled north and combine with what is lefted of Arthur over the next 24-36 hours, once it doe's so, I expect a weak tropical system to move into the BOC. I don't expect anything more then 35-40 knots tops as of this time. But its worth keeping a eye on.

We have rain forecasted this weekend up here on the S. Coast Texas, I wonder if this thing could make its way up here and give us some heavy rain? I got some really big cracks in the clay that my house sits on and would really like to see those get moistened up.

[Stratosphere747]

Almost time to put this puppy to rest...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 2353.shtml?

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED JUN 04 2008

THE 1006 MB LOW...REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM
ARTHUR...REMAINS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR VERACRUZ BUT IS
LOSING MOST OF ITS IDENTITY AND WILL BE DROPPED ON THE 05/0000
UTC MAP.

[StormspinnerD2]

00
ABNT20 KNHC 042343
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

It's over. Let it be.

[lrak]

see they did it again and said "most" instead of "all".....

"TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS." Now that sounds definitive, but I need to think of a word that sounds more final, I don't like expected, how bout NOT GOING TO HAPPEN during the next 48 hours. Then that would mean I should return to this site in 48 hrs for an update from the NHC....Ok. NOT.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The person that says that a system in hurricane season has no chance has no clue what so ever about how things work in the tropics.

That is all that needs to be side. Also I'm not talking about the NHC, but some members of storm2k,. This has nothing to do with the respected forecasters at the NHC THAT WORK HARD FOR US. So don't supend me for posting that.

What is lefted of 91E is moving north or slightly east of tnorth near 05-15 degrees off north. It is near 16.5 north/94 west as of this time...The remant LLC of Arthur is at 18.3/92.5, what this should do is do a "merge" over the next day or so. I don't think it has super high chances but anything is possible, and should not be discounted for a second.

I'm not saying that there will be a cyclone out of this, but this just up's the cards some. In yes I do see the shear west of 95 west...But we have seen sheared systems before. I give it 25% chance of something.

[lrak]

I was wondering how many systems have reformed over the years. The only one I can recall real fast is that huge trek Ivan took. I think that is still being debated over and is why I'm thinking of it.

Is there an average of some sort that would show how many systems making landfall and then having enough energy to produce another cyclone as it moves off the coast? It seems to happen only in this area of the world, but I have to admit this is the only part of the world I investigate.

[StormspinnerD2]

Systems don't form or re-form over land, not without convection anywhere near the circulation centre.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Systems don't form or re-form over land, and without convection anywhere near the circulation centre.

Who said its going to form or reform over land? I'm not saying it has a very high chance, but it's not impossible.

[Sanibel]

I see 91 dead stationary for the last 48 hours. More like an eddy than system.

[lrak]

Systems don't form or re-form over land, not without convection anywhere near the circulation centre.

Really?

[Derek Ortt]

The person that says that a system in hurricane season has no chance has no clue what so ever about how things work in the tropics.

That is all that needs to be side. Also I'm not talking about the NHC, but some members of storm2k,. This has nothing to do with the respected forecasters at the NHC THAT WORK HARD FOR US. So don't supend me for posting that.

What is lefted of 91E is moving north or slightly east of tnorth near 05-15 degrees off north. It is near 16.5 north/94 west as of this time...The remant LLC of Arthur is at 18.3/92.5, what this should do is do a "merge" over the next day or so. I don't think it has super high chances but anything is possible, and should not be discounted for a second.

I'm not saying that there will be a cyclone out of this, but this just up's the cards some. In yes I do see the shear west of 95 west...But we have seen sheared systems before. I give it 25% chance of something.

Matt, please think before you post. When someone says no chance, it does not mean they have no clue. I have said that many times here and it is on sound meteorological data.

Again Matt, please think before hitting submit sometimes.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The person that says that a system in hurricane season has no chance has no clue what so ever about how things work in the tropics.

That is all that needs to be side. Also I'm not talking about the NHC, but some members of storm2k,. This has nothing to do with the respected forecasters at the NHC THAT WORK HARD FOR US. So don't supend me for posting that.

What is lefted of 91E is moving north or slightly east of tnorth near 05-15 degrees off north. It is near 16.5 north/94 west as of this time...The remant LLC of Arthur is at 18.3/92.5, what this should do is do a "merge" over the next day or so. I don't think it has super high chances but anything is possible, and should not be discounted for a second.

I'm not saying that there will be a cyclone out of this, but this just up's the cards some. In yes I do see the shear west of 95 west...But we have seen sheared systems before. I give it 25% chance of something.

Matt, please think before you post. When someone says no chance, it does not mean they have no clue. I have said that many times here and it is on sound meteorological data.

Again Matt, please think before hitting submit sometimes.

Ok, I won't post anything that won't have strong support of the data anymore. I have high respect for you Derek, so I will take what your saying seriously. I was just saying its always possible to get something to form from even the smallest thing, but I guest I should not be noting the off chance that it could happen.

I'm sorry for causing trouble for the last 5 years, I was wrong. I guest that is just in my nature to question and go against things. That is what I like to do.

I'm sorry to all of storm2k and the internet for being this way to. It was wrong for me to act like that. Yes I will try to think and have soild data to support my post from now on. Its going to be hard for me. Thanks for remining me and pushing me right over the years Derek and Admins.

I got a lot to learn. It will be hard in I will make mistakes this summer I'm sure, but I will try not to make them.

[StormspinnerD2]

Systems don't form or re-form over land, not without convection anywhere near the circulation centre.

Really?

Check the second part of that sentence.

[lrak]

Systems don't form or re-form over land, not without convection anywhere near the circulation centre.

Really?

Check the second part of that sentence.

I did

Got some good convection firing over the BOC, oh and are we bickering because I'm through and still smiling? I like the "ya never know scenarios too."

[Category 5]

Ok, I won't post anything that won't have strong support of the data anymore. I was just saying its always possible to get something to form from even the smallest thing, but I guest I should not be noting the off chance that it could happen.

The data is a guide, it's here to help us. Using it will make things a heck of alot easier believe me.

[vbhoutex]

The person that says that a system in hurricane season has no chance has no clue what so ever about how things work in the tropics.

That is all that needs to be side. Also I'm not talking about the NHC, but some members of storm2k,. This has nothing to do with the respected forecasters at the NHC THAT WORK HARD FOR US. So don't supend me for posting that.

What is lefted of 91E is moving north or slightly east of tnorth near 05-15 degrees off north. It is near 16.5 north/94 west as of this time...The remant LLC of Arthur is at 18.3/92.5, what this should do is do a "merge" over the next day or so. I don't think it has super high chances but anything is possible, and should not be discounted for a second.

I'm not saying that there will be a cyclone out of this, but this just up's the cards some. In yes I do see the shear west of 95 west...But we have seen sheared systems before. I give it 25% chance of something.

Matt, please think before you post. When someone says no chance, it does not mean they have no clue. I have said that many times here and it is on sound meteorological data.

Again Matt, please think before hitting submit sometimes.

Ok, I won't post anything that won't have strong support of the data anymore. I have high respect for you Derek, so I will take what your saying seriously. I was just saying its always possible to get something to form from even the smallest thing, but I guest I should not be noting the off chance that it could happen.

I'm sorry for causing trouble for the last 5 years, I was wrong. I guest that is just in my nature to question and go against things. That is what I like to do.

I'm sorry to all of storm2k and the internet for being this way to. It was wrong for me to act like that. Yes I will try to think and have soild data to support my post from now on. Its going to be hard for me. Thanks for remining me and pushing me right over the years Derek and Admins.

I got a lot to learn. It will be hard in I will make mistakes this summer I'm sure, but I will try not to make them.

Matt you wouldn't sstill be here if you had caused trouble for 5 years. Trust me. Derek is giving you some good solid advice. It is NEVER wrong to question when it is done respectfully and with some thought put into the questioning before posting it. It becomes wrong when the question is posted just to go against the grain without any substance to the reasoning. Don't ever stop questioning or you will stop learning. I, as well as many others here, have watched you grow in your knowledge base about the tropics over the past 5 years. Slow down a little and use that knowledge when you post.

[Category 5]

Matt you wouldn't still be here if you had caused trouble for 5 years. Trust me. Derek is giving you some good solid advice. It is NEVER wrong to question when it is done respectfully and with some thought put into the questioning before posting it. It becomes wrong when the question is posted just to go against the grain without any substance to the reasoning. Don't ever stop questioning or you will stop learning. I, as well as many others here, have watched you grow in your knowledge base about the tropics over the past 5 years. Slow down a little and use that knowledge when you post.

We learn by asking questions and we learn from our mistakes. With every storm we learn more and more. And in the end, thats what it's all about, learning new things. It's that curiosity that drives us.

[lrak]

I think a guy like me sometimes influences you guys to speculate beyond the capabilities of a possibility and gets people thinking it can happen. I have no clue how to read data, I just like to ask and get answers if anyone will reply. Nothing more or less, just typing wishcasting stuff and waiting for the inevitable. Right now its not serious, and as soon as it gets serious you'll see that I stop posting and just read, so hopefully nothing has been posted that made anyone upset.

Karl

[Category 5]

I think a guy like me sometimes influences you guys to speculate beyond the capabilities of a possibility and gets people thinking it can happen. I have no clue how to read data, I just like to ask and get answers if anyone will reply. Nothing more or less, just typing wishcasting stuff and waiting for the inevitable. Right now its not serious, and as soon as it gets serious you'll see that I stop posting and just read, so hopefully nothing has been posted that made anyone upset.

Karl

Thats just silly. I'm sure you'd find doing it the right way more rewarding then trying to sell impossible nonsense.