Arthur's remnents near the BOC

[Category 5]

I know theres dry air. But its not impossible for development even with dry air...I'm not saying this will become anything more then maybe a weak Bret like tropical storm.

+ 30kts of sheer + No convection near the center + Very limited time = Next system.

It just has too much working against it.

Come on cat 5! lets just see what happens..maybe its the wine i found..lol..but its fun to look at and there is not much else to look at and something could..could try to spin up

Na, wishcasting won't help me in college.

[StormspinnerD2]

I misread the map, but the dry air is still there, and that ridge isn't budging.

[Category 5]

30kts?????

hmmm.. look again

Oops, thanks for correcting me there.

Regardless, dry air should still suffocate it.

[Aric Dunn]

I know theres dry air. But its not impossible for development even with dry air...I'm not saying this will become anything more then maybe a weak Bret like tropical storm.

+ 30kts of sheer + No convection near the center + Very limited time = Next system.

It just has too much working against it.

Come on cat 5! lets just see what happens..maybe its the wine i found..lol..but its fun to look at and there is not much else to look at and something could..could try to spin up

Na, wishcasting won't help me in college.

but who's wishing... ?????
im just observing
im in college now! doing what i do does not hurt me while im here /// what do you do??

[Category 5]

but who's wishing... ?????
im just observing
im in college now! doing what i do does not hurt me while im here /// what do you do??

I'm basically saying that key facts are being ignored here, seemingly on purpose, as they've been brought up several times and overlooked in an attempt to bring a dead storm back to life. Aka, wishcasting.

And this fall I'll be doing exactly what you're doing, thanks for asking.

[Aric Dunn]

but who's wishing... ?????
im just observing
im in college now! doing what i do does not hurt me while im here /// what do you do??

I'm basically saying that key facts are being ignored here, seemingly on purpose, as they've been brought up several times and overlooked in an attempt to bring a dead storm back to life. Aka, wishcasting.

And this fall I'll be doing exactly what you're doing, thanks for asking.

what being ignored?

[Category 5]

but who's wishing... ?????
im just observing
im in college now! doing what i do does not hurt me while im here /// what do you do??

I'm basically saying that key facts are being ignored here, seemingly on purpose, as they've been brought up several times and overlooked in an attempt to bring a dead storm back to life. Aka, wishcasting.

And this fall I'll be doing exactly what you're doing, thanks for asking.

what being ignored?

Dry air, short time over water, the absense of convection.

Tell you what, I'll make a wager. If this reforms, I'll wear the S2K Crow Award as my avatar until Bertha forms.

[Aric Dunn]

here are the few images

i will add them as they come in

[Ivanhater]

im in college too cat 5..just gotta take a step back and see what happens

[Aric Dunn]

im in college too cat 5..just gotta take a step back and see what happens

this is off topics but what is everyone doing for their degree? \
im doing BA in Space Physics and minor in meteorology, mathematics, astronomy..
im on my senior year

[Category 5]

im in college too cat 5..just gotta take a step back and see what happens

As far as I'm concerned, everything has at least a 1% chance.

It's going to be hard for this to gain convection with such dry air. So the odds stand at 1%.

[Category 5]

im in college too cat 5..just gotta take a step back and see what happens

this is off topics but what is everyone doing for their degree? \
im doing BA in Space Physics and minor in meteorology, mathematics, astronomy..
im on my senior year

I'm majoring in Meteorology, and minoring in Enviromental science. I'm starting as a freshman this fall. I'm thinking about taking a 5th year depending on how things turn out.

[Aric Dunn]

im in college too cat 5..just gotta take a step back and see what happens

this is off topics but what is everyone doing for their degree? \
im doing BA in Space Physics and minor in meteorology, mathematics, astronomy..
im on my senior year

I'm majoring in Meteorology, and minoring in Enviromental science. I'm starting as a freshman this fall. I'm thinking about taking a 5th year depending on how things turn out.

your first symester is this fall

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

but who's wishing... ?????
im just observing
im in college now! doing what i do does not hurt me while im here /// what do you do??

I'm basically saying that key facts are being ignored here, seemingly on purpose, as they've been brought up several times and overlooked in an attempt to bring a dead storm back to life. Aka, wishcasting.

And this fall I'll be doing exactly what you're doing, thanks for asking.

Please stop acting like it's wishcasting to think that a LLC that is closed based on surface obs is something that we should forget about and say next about. There is a upper level AntiCyclone based on the fact that there is 5-15 knot winds with in the area and upper level fanning of the clouds with in the area...Yes there is dry air, but tropical cyclones can and do form with it. It's not good for rapid development of a tropical cyclone. A LLC can and do develop and needs to be watched...It is wishcasting to discount this like this.

[Category 5]

There is a upper level AntiCyclone based on the fact that there is 5-15 knot winds with in the area and upper level fanning of the clouds with in the area...Yes there is dry air, but tropical cyclones can and do form with it. It's not good for rapid development of a tropical cyclone. A LLC can and do develop and needs to be watched.

While your point is valid, it has one major flaw in this situation (Which I have been kind enough to color in red). Look at a map of where this thing is at. It doesn't have time for slow development. Looking at these small details isn't wishcasting. Ignoring them is. I've made my point so I have no need to say any further. If you haven't seen or gotten that point, I'm done wasting my time.

[Aric Dunn]

There is a upper level AntiCyclone based on the fact that there is 5-15 knot winds with in the area and upper level fanning of the clouds with in the area...Yes there is dry air, but tropical cyclones can and do form with it. It's not good for rapid development of a tropical cyclone. A LLC can and do develop and needs to be watched.

While your point is valid, it has one major flaw in this situation. Look at a map of where this thing is at. It doesn't have time for slow development. Looking at these small details isn't wishcasting. Ignoring them is. I've made my point so I have no need to say any further.

actually you have not made your point...

[Ivanhater]

im in college too cat 5..just gotta take a step back and see what happens

this is off topics but what is everyone doing for their degree? \
im doing BA in Space Physics and minor in meteorology, mathematics, astronomy..
im on my senior year

I was doing meteorology but am now doing political science and air force and will commission when I graduate and go straight in the air force.

[Chacor]

He's made it well enough. The conditions are not favourable for development. It's whether you're accepting his point or not, not whether he's made it.

[Category 5]

im in college too cat 5..just gotta take a step back and see what happens

this is off topics but what is everyone doing for their degree? \
im doing BA in Space Physics and minor in meteorology, mathematics, astronomy..
im on my senior year

I was doing meteorology but am now doing political science and air force and will commission when I graduate and go straight in the air force.

You going to try for the Hurricane Hunters eventually?

[Ivanhater]

I was doing meteorology but am now doing political science and air force and will commission when I graduate and go straight in the air force.[/quote]

You going to try for the Hurricane Hunters eventually?[/quote]

Well thats only reserves..I will be an officer Active duty..but I wish!